Some of my thoughts on Monero and the current crypto currency boom.
Monero has been in a consolidation phase with respect to Bitcoin since August of 2016. Take a look at the XMR/XBT weekly chart on a log scale https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc and tell me what you see. The last major move was from 0.0016 XBT in June 2016 to a high of 0.0265 XBT in August 2016 for an increase of over 1600%. If the 0.0265 XBT high is broken on volume another major move upward is possible.
The current @crypto currency boom has seen Bitcoin to fall to under 40% market dominance. To put is bluntly this is indicative that there is something seriously wrong with Bitcoin. My take is that this is related to the fixed 1 MB blocksize limit in Bitcoin together with the consequence of skyrocketing fees and seriously delayed transactions. These are problems for which @Monero has a solution. The market is looking for an alt coin solution and for the time being has focused to a large degree on Ethereum. My take is that while @Ethereum has its uses that may justify its market cap replacing BItcoin is not one of them.. If the market chooses Monero then all bets are off.
The hackers are quietly hacking away. Sooner or later significant improvements will materialize. As to when? Who knows. That is the nature of FLOSS development. A recent example of this is multi sig, which is current being tested and not yet ready for main chain deployment.
My take is that if one is short Monero, the risk of a brutal negative reckoning is very high. As to when and to what extent I have no idea.
This is not investment advice. The risk of a complete loss of funds on a Monero position long or short (or more for a leveraged position) is very high. Please do your due diligence and obtain appropriate professional advice before investing or speculating. Disclosure: I have long positions in XMR, XBT and NMC, and I am also involved in the Monero project as a core team member.