Digital Currency Past Present Future - Bitcoin's Moment of Truth + Bonus Materials
Bitcoin is approaching a critical point that will decide its fate. The crests of the 3 down waves (represented by the 3 orange circles below) have been completed and soon we are going to see the completion of the 3rd and last trough. Let's see how low this trough is going to be. My previous target still remains to be in the vicinity of $8,500.
source: poloniex
You could argue that the bottom has been reached at $9,600 as represented by the orange vertical line above. I would argue that it's not the bottom for two reasons: (1) there is no heavy volume at this price (as bottoms are typically accompanied by heavy volume; think of the short sellers who have billions in their wallets waiting for that perfect moment to change course). But I could be wrong. (2) as mentioned in my previous post, the Fibonacci sequence points to either $8,500 or $5,336 (but I think the latter is too low in relation to its ATH of $20,000).
I made a similar analysis below using the worldcoinindex since this shows the average price of all exchanges, hence shows a more accurate holistic picture of the bitcoin world.
One thing I would like to highlight is the last remaining support indicated below that should not be breach - otherwise, we could enter the point of no return - the road to oblivion. Note that this support price depends on which exchange you are using. For poloniex, this is $8,500.
source: www.worldcoinindex.com
By next week, I would expect that this bloodbath will be over and bitcoin will start its climb to another uncharted territory which is beyond $20,000.
Bonus Materials
- I thought I'd share this nice article that I came across in the web regarding bitcoin's price prediction using the Monte Carlo Simulation. You can read the article for the full details using the link provided below but for those who are too busy to read it, here's the crux:
There is an 80% confidence interval for the price of bitcoin would be between $13,200 and $271,277 by the end of 2018. Another way to look at this is that the chance that the price at the end of the year will be below 13,200 is the same as that of it being above $271,277.
Full article here: I’ve simulated the bitcoin price for the whole 2018. You won’t believe the result!
- A friend of mine who lives in Brisbane, Australia sent this video to me few minutes ago: Brisbane Airport is the first to Accept Bitcoin. I wish all airports will follow!
Disclosure: This post does not intend to provide investment nor does it represents that the securities or services discussed are suitable for any investor. Investors are advised not to rely on any information contained in the article in the process of making a fully informed investment decision.
I think your evaluation is way better than those Monte Carlo results. I get what you are saying that it is somewhat unlikely that Bitcoin will be less than $13K. The only thing is that prediction is like putting a golfer in front of an ocean with a ball an a driver and stating that there is a 80% chance that the ball is going into the ocean. It is just an overstatement of the obvious.
I checked out the article you suggested. Very interesting, thank you.
I would have loved to see a MonteCarlo simulation for 2017 based on data from 2016... How close would it have come to what we know now. And also, a similar retroactive simulation on other types of assets (shares, real estate...).
Just to calibrate its predictive power accuracy ;-)
just waiting for cryptomarket to go up and up
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Let’s hope we see that recovery next week. I imagine early Feb will be positive as well when South Korea recommence trading again as well.
Seeing red all the time is hard on the eyes. Bring on the days of green!
I believe if you in crypto you should see everything now as a %discount price%. There is no need of speculation is it falling apart or it's bear market or something else..I believe what comes up must go down in some kind of form. And if you are true believer and crypto entusiast - hold your tokens and buy more on dips coz 2k18 will be insane for crypto. Not because everyone say so - but because from tech point of view - so many projects will come to reality eventually this year. So many people will join crypto to. Good luck everyone ;)
Nice post