Bitcoin Technicals: In Depth Breakdown of the Current Move

in #bitcoin6 years ago (edited)

Mid Term BTC.PNG

Still below the trend line formed at the start of the second bearish leg. Fibonacci retracements complete, looking like a retest to 5700's. Large scale manipulation for a retouch of 6800 is possible, but organically looking at further downside.
This is because trendline has already broken through the 23.6% level.

BTC EW Daily.PNG

Looks like Bitcoin is headed to the bottom of a 5 wave corrective move. Could very well be the final leg of bearish pressure scene in this long down rally. The reason for the C being further down and not at on the previous move was because the A level need to be breached for it to count as a C. Does not look like market will make a new D (between 8500 and 10000). We still need to go a little further down to gather some liquidity, mostly from institutional players.

BTC EW H1 FORREAL.PNG

Consistent 5 impulse waves followed by 3 short corrective waves, up until 6560, which happened to also be the top of the trend line coming down from the highs on 10k. Recent move was a double corrective wave (5-3-3). With so much downside pressure it is possible to go further down. But on this time frame, bullish sentiment looks much better because it looks like the end of a zig-zag.

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Final possible outcomes. Either it goes above 6579 to make a D, or it goes below 6310 to make an A. After these charts were prepared, Bitcoin fell to 6260 and has now recovered to 6314. In my opinion, this is just the new lower high we makes before going further down. 5750 retest should be on the cards by year end. But once again, it is very clear that with the random volatility that suddenly hits in a relatively quiet year, it is possible for Bitcoin to go either way. But now that 6310 was breached, the natural movement should take the market down.

UPDATE: Bitcoin broke the 6379 resistance up till 6406. The new few hours will show whether short term sentiment is bullish or bearish.

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