Could we have predicted the BCH crazyness?
Hello crypto!
If you just woke up now and are still dazed, yes, you are not seeing double, BCH is INDEED about 1500$ with a high at about 3000$. Yes, it was 300$ last night. Yes, you hate your life for a good reason ( or are suddenly very wealthy!).
"Why didn't I buy?!" might be on a lot of peoples mind now - I know it is on mine! - but this is navel grazing as it doesn't help much.
A better question is, for me, could I have known?
My first mistake was that I really have only a very superficial understanding of BCH.
I know the basics of course but I never dwelled deep into the specifics and treat it like a bastardized version of BTC. I'm not the only one, the community was pretty much anti-BCH and- at least at first - most miners remained on the BTC chain. It was a joke that was supposed to have a fast and merciful death. And for a while this is what it was happening...
If you care to know it seems that the main difference is that it has faster transactions, a varied block size and low fees.
So what is the downside?
Opinions differ but really it comes down to fear of extreme centralization, fear of being just a quick cashgrab/manipulation on the side of a concentrated group of miners, being too new and with no community behind and the good old hate of BTC brand dilution. There are other reasons as well but these seem to be the main anti-BCH messages. If they are valid or not, I surely can not tell but I mostly considered a joke and left it be.
Last week at SteemFest there was a guy from "Bitcoin.com" giving out stickers and talking with people. I heard him say that he is only buying BCH these days as he feels is the most underrated coin and it has a lot more in store. I brushed it off and never though twice about it. Godspeed, you can just buy on random recommendations from SteemFest goers. The answer remains: No way I could have seen it. ( now that I think about it, so many people said they are bullish on EOS and BTS maybe I should get some of those!! ).
Some traders recommended to buy based on some fancy - shamsnsy... - T.A and a very complex/bs graph analysis. BUY signals all around!, he said and who listened...well, I guess they are happy now.
Personally I do not put much weight into T.A and I rarely take decisions based on T.A analysis. But in this case, he was right but the answer to the question it still is: NO, I could not have seen it.
Finally it's about the ideology and the fundamentals. After the 2x fork was canceled, something shifted in the fith in BTC for a lot of people. I felt a bit that the wind has chilled for BTC but BTC has a rare talent to stay up no matter what happens. Irrationaly and brad recognition but also fundamendatls keep is strong, always. But a little bit of deeper thinking could have led me to BCH.
Let's not forget that BCH has CASH in its name for a reason. BTC clearly won't be a currency ( as it was to some degree deisgned...) and with immense fees and a huge backlog of transaction it seems slow, outdated and old compared to the more nimble ETH and BCH with their super fast blocks, transaction times and super mega low fees.
And this is where institutional money come in. The big guys, the REAL money, banks, investment funds and the likes seem to have decided that BCH will serve their purpose in the future and bought. And here we are...
I honestly have no clue if this is a good logic. It is what I could gather from my research today and it is also in line with my thinking.
However, I am still very much unconvinced that BCH is a real thing that we will have to take in consideration now. There is a narrative out there that says that this is all just a ruse, a way to move attention from the newly announce BTC futures trading.
The plot thickens and we are left more confused than ever, more FOMOed than ever and just spectators to the show. A very weak position that makes me feel a bit disappointed. The dream was that we matter and now it seems that we are just as unimportant as the banking system of the current system makes us feel as well.
What does the crypto world has in store for us?
One way to find out...
Enjoy your Sunday everyone!!
I know this is frowned upon, but I just put up a post on a video I came across that may be salient to your post. The video talked about a forum post from back in August that warned about Bitcoin being replaced by BCH. The forum post also said segwit 2x wouldn't happen, and it didn't.
In my post I put up screen shots of the forum post. I'd appreciate any insight anyone may have as to the veracity of the information. https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@aboutyourbiz/fud-or-real-conspiracy-to-destroy-bitcoin-and-bitcoin-cash-to-take-over-or-bch-usd2500-all-time-high
Please forgive the link posting, but if this is true, people should know. I don't have the knowledge to know if it's true or not.
Beware the BCH! It will ruin you in the end ;0)
But I have heard BTC Whales are also investing in BCH :)
That is the talk they want you to believe then they will dump and you and all you good dear will weep!! ;)
xD
May be :D
tic tock :D
It goes up because in my opinion someone in the bitcoin cash side do the pump. Create million bitcoin cash order and left it there. If you remember it also happen on btc this year. Where one account pump and dump its price to gain some
Interesting how you bashed haejins analysis, and he called that rise to the tee. Who would have seen it? He did. And in case you want to call bullshit, here's your proof: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/kaboom-kaboom-kaboom-bitcoin-cash-bch-rises-300-from-my-recommended-avg-entry-usd381-new-target-usd4-589
the question is if I could have seen, I don' believe in this mumbo jumo T.A. Feel free to do as you like :)
Honest discussion here. How can you not believe in something that is proving itself over and over right in front of your eyes? Did you know that he is currently doing a mutual fund project in real time with 100k he put in to prove he has the skin in the game and the system works? That's pretty ballsy, and you don't do that if you don't know what you're doing.
I did not know that. Where is this information? And if i may ask, how are you connected to this project?
I volunteer my services for free.....because he has taught me to make a bundle of money. I'm completely serious. He is doing this for free because he has become very successful after 15 years of as he calls it "tonnages of failures" - Failing is very often the best teacher of all if you are willing to get back up and figure out what you did wrong. I really admire the fact that he does this for free, where many professionals charge 100s to 1000s a month to get their advice. I started following him when he had 40 followers. I vetted his calls for weeks, then finally signed up and became part of the community. I've learned so much more than I ever knew about the ins and outs of trading...not just investing, and I made a lot of money thanks to that new knowledge. Before that, I could get a win here or there, but now I have no fear in my moves, and my level of anxiety and stress over trading is almost nil. Because I admire what he is doing, and he certainly does not need the money, and I believe in moving things forward in a way in which helps all and does not attempt to harm anyone, I decided to offer any help I could for free. It's kind of funny, most of the people on his blog don't even know all of this. I stay in the background, because it is his work. The techniques he teaches allow you to breathe and relax, knowing what the most PROBABLE movement is, not just all the possibilities. And absolutely there are times where there are 3 or 4 alternate counts, and he is very open and clear about that, but his primary count is so refined that he rarely misses.
Most people view a miss being that the call didn't happen that day, or that week, but that's really not what we are doing over there. We are making profits sometimes in a day, sometimes in a week, sometimes in a month, and sometimes over a lifetime....and when those profits come, you humbly and gratefully take them without trying to nail the very very peak of the price....because that's almost impossible, that's just dumb luck, and we don't mess around with luck. We apply strategies that allow the most flexibility for protection of your assets getting into a trade, and also ways to get out of the trade without trying to guess. Let everyone else take there few extra bucks, and the others with the greed for the top will be left out in the cold on the correction.
I'll look for a post he did about some big time trading competitions....the winner of many of them is asked how he did it....and it was using Elliot Wave theory. But here's the thing, EW is great, but it's not the whole picture. EW combined with Chart Pattern Recognition is where you start to see the real trends and the trend changes taking place before they take place.
The mutual fund project just started, I will dig up the link and send it to you shortly. I signed up in the chat under the same name as here if you would like to direct message there.
My fault, I said Mutual Fund project....but it's actually how to beat mutual funds with ETFs. The first post is an outline....the second goes into more detail and sets up the scenario to watch.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/would-you-like-to-beat-every-mutual-fund-manager-here-is-an-aggressive-equity-portfolio-that-can-average-47-per-year-or-more
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/would-you-like-to-beat-every-hedge-fund-manager-s-performance-here-is-a-method-on-how-the-secret-sauce
Also, just as a note, admittedly I just read the entirety of your post here, and would like to let you know that learning to count and label waves is far less complex than you might think currently. The learning curve is really more about recognizing which pattern is coming into play. The numbers and counting only require you can count to five, and know about 8 letters of the alphabet. Very glad to talk more about it if you're interested.
Haha I totally missed the pump......the worst part was that I had BCH.
it suuuuuuuuuuuuucks
You win some you lose some i guess O_O