12/8/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

bitcoin-crash-dominance-index-e1500304644850.jpg
Bitcoin

Well another day has arrived in Crypto world. What did we learn? Firstly all that glitters is not gold, secondly, and for those that threw money into the Bitcoin furnace at the $19,000 range, welcome to what a full on mania fuelled Bull trap looks like. Now will you get your money back? Honestly, At some point I would think so, when that point will be I’m not sure; especially in light of the futures market that is about to land on us. It could be days, it could be weeks, or it could, though improbable be never. In trading cryptocurrencies or any other commodity, the rules of gravity don’t apply. What goes up, does not have to go down (Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, etc) and what goes down, may never go up again; (Cisco, Yahoo etc.). In this instance, as this is a new technology, I don’t feel as though the bubble has yet burst.

In order to trade successfully in any market don’t narrow your focus to just that market, that commodity, that time frame etc. Instead look at all markets, all commodities and all time frames over the last 100 years that preceded it. All the indicators we now use to predict price action such as averages, ichimoku clouds, MACD, RSI etc.; all were created based on predictable and repeated patterns of human buy/sell behavior over time.

Avoid traps and trade successfully by seeing the charts for what they actually are; merely a measure of the human greed/fear cycle. As I have written before, the asset may change, but we don’t. We are still the same greedy assholes we were when we lived in caves. Hell the survival of our species depends on our inner desire to put self preservation and resource accumulation above those of others. It’s hard wired into our DNA, and plays out in all aspects of our lives; it is what provides us the drive to outshine competitors when trying to win over a mate, breed and push our DNA forward to the next generation. It plays out in the Market every day. When I’m trading, my goal is to fuck you over and take your resources, when your trading your goal is to likewise fuck me over and try and take mine. The market is not a zero sum game, any money entering your wallet came from someone else’s, the inverse is also true .

I once heard a saying that goes along the lines of “if you want to be a successful, study successful people and do what they do”. I say take it a step further and narrow your search for titans in your field of interest. So who is the undisputed World Heavy Weight Champion of Investing/Trading? Why the Oracle of Omaha, Mr. Warren Buffet of course. So what can we copy from him, well first let’s look at his mindset.

"The best investment you can make is in your own abilities. Anything you can do to develop your own abilities or business is likely to be more productive."—Warren Buffett

This goes along the lines of be a student of history, of the charts that preceded the one you are focused on. Study, increase your knowledge base and gain a sound understanding for how the market works before you begin throwing dollar bills at it.

“When a person with money meets a person with experience, the one with experience ends up with the money and the one with money leaves with experience.”—Warren Buffett

This is probably the quote of his that had the most profound impact on my understanding of the market and ties directly into the quote above; experience is gained through time and investment in yourself. Sure, I will likely never actually meet any of my readers here, but you see me in the market every day, you just don’t know it. To you I’m nothing more than one of many green or red blips in the order book, but some whom arrived yesterday with money, will be leaving with experience and I will be leaving with money. This not meant to be a self absorbed go me statement as when I started trading, many years ago, I left the table many times with nothing but experience and the whales, sharks, and dolphins walked away with the money. In fact years ago, I donated $15,000 to the experienced on a bad margin call; been there done that.

Lecture over, and on to the good stuff. Bitcoin price action yesterday was predominantly controlled by small to mid size speculators running the price up through Coinbase by repeated smashing of the buy button by the FOMO crowd like they were playing a game of whack-a-mole. As could be expected the price rose to new highs in line with my previous prediction before crashing back down to reality, parting many with their hard earned capital and leaving the high buy point HODLERs with buttholes so tight you won’t be able to pull a pin out of them with a tractor. The largest losses likely belong to the Panic Sell and Panic Sell/Revenge Trading crowd.

It is fairly well known by those of that trade that when an asset begins rocketing up at an unprecedented rate that it will rocket back down in commensurate fashion. That it CANNOT, remain at a high point of divergence on the MACD, or Overbought on the StochRSI it has to come down to find balance. I have through my experience noticed that the most violent moves one way or the other typically start when you see the 1 hour MACD/Signal line begin to look like one traveler going West and the other going East. The 12 Hr, 1 & 3 Day, and 1 week charts remain virtually unchanged in regards to divergence and being overbought. The StochRSI is likewise trend down which is indicative of future losses to come. While the 35 percent or so decline from its high around $20,000 to the mid $13,000 range yesterday would have been a major crash a few weeks ago, it is really of no significance now when compared to the big picture.

The recent volatility has numbed us to these swings, as such I predict a 60-100 percent reversal could still occur according the longer term charts.

Etherium @ $454

I say Etherium as with most solid Alts would be a buy right now, especially if Bitcoin continues to trade sideways and begins a period of consolidation. As is the case in the Crypto world, traders bore easily if Bitcoin is not making 5 percent daily gains and switch teams. Look for highs in the $400’s. I doubt it will see $500 today as I’m putting my money on LiteCoin.

LiteCoin at $102

Good news is on the horizon, the longer term charts show Litecoin going positive in a big way today. The 12 hour time frame is happy, having fought off the bears throughout the 90’s and absorbed the effects of money being sucked out by Bitcoin. A positive move in this direction will drag up the daily time frame to positive territory which usually sends litecoin on short term moves to the moon before beginning a long period of consolidation. I’m riding a 100 @ 97.50 as well as I added another 350 at $95.50 yesterday afternoon. My prediction is that Litecoin will be a money maker today. Look to get out when the volume begins to dry up and it appears to be topping out.

My previous analysis:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/7whdbh-12-6-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook (Actually 12/7, I goofed the title).

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-6-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-5-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-4-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

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Dude, you're already right... LTC ran up to $125 on Bittrex about 30 minutes ago and is now bouncing around the $120 mark.

I jumped ship at $133... I'll bank the cash and see if another opportunity presents itself. Maybe after the next hourly time frame or so.. I was a bit worried last night with Bitcoin going all over the place. Regardless it puts me up $12,000+ for the week and I never bought a single Bitcoin. I thought about playing the volatility and selling into BTC at I think $ 15,300 around midnight last night, for a short term gain, but I just didn't feel good about the trade. Would not have been able to sleep good on that trade. So I hung on to my LTC as the charts were telling me too..

Not a bad weekly wage at all there. You killed it in LTC today... Bittrex never even saw $133, the highest was $129.25... obviously a psychological level at $130 there.

Man, I really have to spend time learning the charts and all the indicators. The difference between a smart sensible trader and a long-term holder seems to be in the hundreds of percent range... and of course, lately, both have been smashing non-investors. So that's my silver lining.

Yeah it actually topped at $144 on GDAX.. but it looked to be running out of steam earlier, and when it runs up like that as did BTC yesterday, there is going to be a major snap the other direction.. I got out plenty early and lost nothing.

I tried to log into GDAX today and they don't want to know me because I've been driving around on my Aussie licence for 2 years... now I'm motivated to get my Oregon state licence!

LOL, they can't recognize the Aussie license?

They don't care to... because it doesn't prove my address in Oregon. Jerks.

Well that sucks, time to join the rank and file, submit to the man and go in another database to get a license.

I was just thinking how many people got fucked twice in the last two days.. BTC yesterday 20k to 15 drop, LTC today 144 to 121 drop.. to have played both of those wrong could be better than 50 percent down.. start with 10k yesterday have $4800 today.. The market can eat people.

I was watching the chat in TradingView and one guy was saying he started this month with $15k, got up to 30k and is now down to 10k... and that really made me think of your statement before about for you or me to win, someone else has to lose. The market is a bastard. An exciting, amazing, dickhead bastard.

Yeah it can and will do that and do it quickly, that is the difference between paper profits and real profits.. Gotta sell and lock it in, profits.. losing sucks, it hurts, its fucking shitty.. I have been there, and ugghh.. its just a feeling I don't like man, watching real money vanish into space.. it sucks.. That is why I get called a conservative trader.. which IDK, I don't think anyone who trades crypto is conservative.. but I pick my trades carefully.. and cut losses quickly.. Ride the winners, cut the losers.. new traders to the opposite sometimes, especially if they have been getting beaten up.. they are so afraid to lose more or own the loss, that they will ride it into the dirt on the hopes it comes back up, likewise if it does go up, they are waiting for it to go south and sell before letting it top.. So many pitfalls and traps to it.. I get caught sometimes. .Not recently, but I'll be more than happy to share when I do.. I can promise you this I will never lose more than 5 percent of my original investment on one trade.. past 5 percent I'm out.. 100 percent of the time, no ifs not ands no exceptions, that is a hard rule for me, but playing it that close depends on choosing good places to buy in..I can also tell you that I will never go in more than 50 percent of my capital on one trade.. never.. I may add if its going my way, but I will never go ALL IN out that gate on anything.. Rules man, gotta follow the rules or you get hurt.. badly..

Oh I forgot when your back in the chats, tell him I have his 5k over here.. I'll meet him on GDAX in the LTC market and we can trade for it..

Nice post and sweet profits today man :) !

Thanks, a ton of work and going against FOMO but it usually pays in the end..

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