Bull market confirmed - From now on it is time to BTFD!

in bitcoin •  13 days ago  (edited)


As one of the more pessimistic analysts out there, the recent rise in Bitcoin has finally convinced me that the bear market is over. If that's not an indicator for you, I don't know what is! With a change in the market, comes a change in strategy. From now on, it is time to Buy The Flippin' Dip (BTFD)!


Crypto spring has begun

If you've following my blog then you know that I have been one of the more pessimistic commentators out there. Having suffered through a crypto-winter before I became very cautious in calling the end of the bear market this time. I've seen the carnage before and frankly, general sentiment seemed far too optimistic still to be certain without confirmation.

It appears that we have now sufficiently confirmed that the bottom is probably in. My personal threshold was the $6000-6500 level, and once we broke it confidently it sealed the deal for me. I FOMO'ed in a little bit at $6550.

Different strategy

While trading and investing in a bear market is very difficult and will wreck most people, now that we have turned bullish you may notice that the market has changed and will behave differently.

Most people will know of the HODL meme, and those who are in the space longer will know that beyond the meme there is some actual wisdom to the strategy as well. The same goes for the BTFD - Buy the Flipppin' dip - meme.

It's not just a meme, but a very valid strategy. But only in bull markets. It will wreck you in bear markets, as some of you may have found out.

Considering that there is now a very big chance that the bottom was in at $3100, and assuming that Bitcoin will 'one day' be 'much higher' (we are assuming this, yes? 😄 ) then from here on out it should be mostly upwards momentum.

FOMO'ing now will still likely wreck you though. After every major spike must come a correction of some kind. 'The Dip', so to speak. And we've had quite a spike thus far, going from $4000-ish to above $7000 now. We may go higher but the higher we go the more likely it becomes that the peak has been reached and a correction will follow.

Personally, I am waiting for the peak to be made and the following correction. The risk/reward ratio is simply off right now. The question is where the dip will bring us though. It could be anywhere, obviously. Even below $3100 is still on the table, although not likely.

Levels to watch

Let's look at the levels which I am looking at to buy.

The most obvious levels to me at at around $6000, at around $5000 and roughly in the $4200-4350 range. There may be additional levels to watch if Bitcoin goes much higher of course. The higher it goes, the higher the 'higher low' is going to be too.

Still, i think the bulls are getting tired and we may be topping out soon to start the correction. If that is the case then I believe a $6000 and $5000 retest is likely. $4200 is possible too but there is a lower chance. Judging by the current market sentiment it seems like way too many people are bullish in order for it to drop so far - lest some unforeseen disaster occurs (like Craig Wright turning out to be Satoshi Nakamoto on the 14th when he has to provide proof to a court of law in the USA).

Personally I am doing what I've been doing for the past months as well. I will set my buys at the levels mentioned above and will let Bitcoin decide which gets triggered. As far as I'm concerned for the next 1+ years the game has now changed to 'Try to catch the dip' as much as possible. Forget about new higher highs; just focus on trying to catch the higher lows instead.

I'm happy that this crypto-winter seems to be over! I'm still cautious though.

What's kind of cool, is how my predictions were pretty accurate. About 6 months ago when capitulation occurred I called for a trend reversal in the spring/summer of 2019. I also called for the bottom to be likely at $3000.

I did get one thing wrong though. Back then I predicted a slow grind back up. Turns out it was more of a parabolic rise. Who would've known? Bitcoin has a mind of it's own - Respect it or get rekt.

Still we are not out of the woods. Let's not forget the recent bill put in front of congress about banning cryptocurrencies. Or how Craig Wright was ordered by a judge to prove possession of 1 million BTC (which would strengthen his case about being Satoshi Nakamoto). There are still multiple black swan events that could occur. But remember, it may very well be those events that provide us with the necessary dips to BTFD!

Keep calm, HODL on and enjoy the ride. You're not a BTC veteran and if you've HODLed this out you're gonna make it to the end as well.



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I'm not totally convinced that this last day or two hasn't been a bit of a false run... I guess when Binance opens up shop again, we'll see what it is really like! It is curious at least that Bitcoin is the one that is leading the charge (with it's percentage of the market increasing hugely!), and that all the altcoins are being left far far far behind...

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Me either, but the market sure is acting up.. wow! Broke 8K now.

it's parabolic like we haven't seen since 2017. Which is either amazing... or a little bit shady? Who knows... it's impossible to tame bitcoin, best hold on and enjoy the ride :)

I hope your theory is right would be good to get in on the dip and see some good climbing its been a long Crypto winter , so lets hope for better days ahead

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I hope so too! Dip seems to be happening now
Thanks for stopping by!

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I hope so too! Dip
Seems to be happening now
Thanks for stopping by!

                 - pandorasbox


I'm a bot. I detect haiku.

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We can but hope I hadn't checked this weekend but lets hope it turns again, we need a month of nice greens on the markets or months even better ;)

Exchange funded. Waiting for those dips...

P.S. Can I say "I told you so" now? :p

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No, you have to wait until we breach $12K before I am 100% convinced!
I am now at 75%-ish convinced still :)

Can't ever be too sure with Bitcoin, sub-$3000 is still on the table. Though less likely by the day, so yay

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  ·  9 days ago (edited)

You still think sub-$3k? Are you sure you aren't Warren Buffett? 😆
For me a sustained price above $6.5k was my semi-confirmation point. I still think we could go $4k, but no lower. My charts tell me that $4.15k would be the bottom if BTC crashed downwards today - I believe them.

This bull run is happening too fast for my liking. It's hard to argue against the sustained performance and the breathtaking record-setting volume, but for me the "Bull run has started" benchmark was always a sustained push above $8.5k. We are scarily close...

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It's not likely but it's still on the table yes. Just not likely
I think the current market and sentiment show that the market values BTC more than 3K. But a black swan event or other stuff could still bring us down.

But yes I agree that breaking 6.5K was an important indicator, I did buy in then as well.

Current rally is much too fast for my liking also!! I find myself not trusting it at all.

BUT.. here's the kicker: What if that distrust is the essence of denial?

I can remember the same disbelief back in 2017 when we first broke $7K because back then BTC was supposed to top and dip again. Instead I watched in disbelief, 'waiting for the dip' all the way up to 20K

In hindsight it was not a bad move to wait for the dip since we gave away all those gains in the year after.

Still, it shows that BTC is capable of crazy, crazy moves. When BTC does move you don't want to miss it. Last time I was stuck in ETH since it appeared to break $400 for the first time. Instead BTC went waaaaay higher and alts suffered. I lost so much BTC value that period, it's devastating! Even if I'm up a lot in fiat terms.

It takes about one of these major miscalculations to become a true HODLer, lol. You just can't tell for sure, and the risk of being wrong is just too big. The only safe way is to hodl and enjoy the rollercoasterride.

'sides... even if we go to 0 someday, the rollercoaster ride itself was worth it for all the entertainment value it gave me.

It's not an investment, it's an adventure! ⛰️🌲🧚🍄🦄🏕️

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It's not an investment, it's an adventure!

:D

I think that distrust IS the essence of denial. Well, FUD in general is. I'm quite happy to watch BTC go vertical, but I know that the market isn't. I don't distrust BTC, I distrust the weak hands which I know are out there. I think I've shown that I'll never be the guy who panic sells first, though I may be the idiot sitting on that roller-coaster that has gone to zero!

My problem with BTC at the moment is merely the shape of the curve: for where we were in the market it shot up too soon and too steeply. Nothing stays outside of the Bollinger Bands for too long - NOTHING! Anyway, the climbing has calmed down a bit and things are looking better.

I also think we could be building for another climb (or a dip, who knows?) I think that if you see the dip below $6k as an anomaly then the charts look a whole lot better, perhaps that is the perspective from which I should be doing my TA.

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Also two more things:

  1. Despite my 'bearish' short-mid term outlooks, I have been accummulating
  2. I have the feeling we may hit $10K soon
  3. If we do break $10K then expect media madness to return a la 2017
  4. All bets are off by then, hodl on
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I need to have a few words with the person who taught you to count to two...

Nice write up. I’m getting pretty excited myself. I started buying again the last month or so. I happy to see BTC rise, but not this quickly. But who knows, it did drop very fast on the way down as well

Posted using Partiko iOS

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I think this took pretty much everyone by surprise!
It seems like the hype is returning though, lots of people coming out of the woodwork

I’m focused on the correction, in my opinion this parabolic curve can bring us a good entry point in short time

Posted using Partiko iOS

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I completely agree. I fomo'd in a little bit but i am keeping most of my ammo for the big dip that's coming after this rise. That will be the time to get in, IMO

This is all French to me, but I will simply keep holding on!
Blessings!

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This is all French to
Me, but I will simply keep
Holding on! Blessings!

                 - papilloncharity


I'm a bot. I detect haiku.

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If you've hodled this far, then certainly do keep hodling on from hereon!

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FOMO is getting real

Posted using Partiko Android

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Certainly seems so!!
Thanks for stopping by!

I may not truly understand this but I’m hoping for the best.

Posted using Partiko iOS