This practically BTC only rally has really threw me for a loop. The market for the most part has moved together to this point and the BTC divergence from the alts I've had trouble finding any fundamental reasoning besides extreme greed and exuberance. I agree that a pullback is much needed and expected here and your reasoning is sound.
As BTC goes more main stream and gains the attention of big money, I wonder if all fundamentals could essentially be thrown out the window for the short term as $$ would simply flood into BTC so they could gain a meaningful stake going forward. The dates you outline in the near future are great indicators of potential pitfalls and are to be watched very carefully. Great article brother! You have a great feel and knowledge of this market and I continue to learn a lot from you. Much appreciated!
Thanks! After parabolic runs, it is very unlikely we reenter a normal market phase. So when it ran to 3k as a parabolic run, and then it managed a new high, a "sane bull market" wasn't on the table. It could only do a parabolic run higher. So it's either parabolic runs higher, or we have a true consolidation which has not happened yet. Bitcoin 10k+ is not an unreasonable expectation within 12 months. We're really only 1 or 2 parabolic runs away from it.
The thing is, no matter how high parabolic price runs want to go, the pull back happens and it isn't pretty for the bag holders. I don't personally believe in investing in periods like we have now. You just trend trade it and find the breaking point of the parabolic run and sell. Sure, long-term it might work out, but you could be sitting on losses for a few years doing it that way.