Market favoring Bitcoin
Hi guys and gals, something I have been noticing and sensing.
This latest rally has benefited few of the staple coins besides bitcoin. There have been some newer coins to have good runs, but largely this has been bitcoin's run.
To my understanding, if bitcoin continues to soar but other coins are simply unable to keep up... to me this strikes very much as an aggressive top. It's very strange if BTC soars to 5k but ETH cannot reach $350. We all know that BTC, while the big guy in town, is not somehow light-years better than the rest of the players in the market place. What BTC does have going for it is a lot of hype by internet gurus who predict Bitcoin 13k by a mysterious computer program they run. Never trust such commentary.
When a market tops and never returns, you always have predictors saying the market will continue to soar higher. In the lows of a bear market, you always have predictions saying it will go lower. Predicting an existing trend is almost useless. Just draw trend lines and trade those if you want to trade trends, far more reliable than gurus predicting a never-ending future of BTC price increases.
Speaking of trends, today, we hit my first target for a possible BTC pull-back in the green circle. The market seems to be responding to this level.
The red circle highlights the next fib level at 4,800. I favor this 4,800 level with a brief test above it to 5k. At such a juncture, I would certainly take some off the table, probably 50% of my holdings, since a retest to 4k would be very easy at that point. A possible retest to $3,140 could occur as well.
The thing that concerns me the most about this rally is that the other coins are largely not following Bitcoin. That would be fine if those other coins were going to catch up after Bitcoin was done soaring higher. This would make sense. Yet if that does not happen and we have bitcoin sitting on a huge rally far ahead of and beyond all other coins, we have to wonder if the market is signalling something to us, such as a drastic pull back in bitcoin. Later this year, we have an event which can cause a scare pull-back in bitcoin.
August 23, is the Segwit activation. Pretty much I think all people expect this to go smooth.
The next major event for Bitcoin is the Segwit2X hard fork. This is where miners increase the blocksize limit to 2MB. This one could be controversial because Segwit supporters who did not support a blocksize increase may decide to back out of the agreement at this point and break their prior promise.
This also has the potential of creating a 3rd bitcoin. If it does create a third bitcoin, I believe while this temporarily may be a decent trade, long-term this may highlight the silly outcomes of Nakimoto Consensus. What a logistical nightmare for anyone to support bitcoin as an exchange. Every time it forks to upgrade its protocol, expect a new coin to be made.
Anti-fork coins like Tezos and EOS are the future, because by design they are not made to work on hard fork consensus, but rather internalize governance on the blockchain itself. In the future, exchanges might demand this from bitcoin, because the scaling debate is not finished at 2MB. Meaning, we have the opportunity for 4th, 5th and 6th bitcoin hard fork alt-coins.
Another possible outcome from a Segwit2X betrayal is that some mining pools have pledged to switch to Bitcoin Cash if they are betrayed. One such pool owns bitcoin.com. Meaning, Bitcoin Cash could gain heftier marketing support as a bitcoin alternative and competitor if the Segwit2X event does not happen for bitcoin.
Would really appreciate your opinion on this TA of OMG: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@unlockrs/omg-bullish-triangle
Always looking to learn more and be corrected if I'm mistaken with my analysis.
This practically BTC only rally has really threw me for a loop. The market for the most part has moved together to this point and the BTC divergence from the alts I've had trouble finding any fundamental reasoning besides extreme greed and exuberance. I agree that a pullback is much needed and expected here and your reasoning is sound.
As BTC goes more main stream and gains the attention of big money, I wonder if all fundamentals could essentially be thrown out the window for the short term as $$ would simply flood into BTC so they could gain a meaningful stake going forward. The dates you outline in the near future are great indicators of potential pitfalls and are to be watched very carefully. Great article brother! You have a great feel and knowledge of this market and I continue to learn a lot from you. Much appreciated!
Thanks! After parabolic runs, it is very unlikely we reenter a normal market phase. So when it ran to 3k as a parabolic run, and then it managed a new high, a "sane bull market" wasn't on the table. It could only do a parabolic run higher. So it's either parabolic runs higher, or we have a true consolidation which has not happened yet. Bitcoin 10k+ is not an unreasonable expectation within 12 months. We're really only 1 or 2 parabolic runs away from it.
The thing is, no matter how high parabolic price runs want to go, the pull back happens and it isn't pretty for the bag holders. I don't personally believe in investing in periods like we have now. You just trend trade it and find the breaking point of the parabolic run and sell. Sure, long-term it might work out, but you could be sitting on losses for a few years doing it that way.
Good post. The greed on bitcoin right now is off the charts, and nobody seems to give a shit that we see another split come November. The higher price goes, the higher and more outlandish the predictions become.
I get the feeling the banks are the ones pushing this rally in spite of deteriorating fundamentals. Something definitely doesn't smell right.
Another factor is the bitconnect ponzi, which I want to cover. They are putting something like 20% to 30% of their ponzi holdings directly into bitcoin according to the presentation they gave investors recently over in Asia. So they're not really even hiding the ponzi at this point, just framing it as a gamble on Bitcoin's price along with their own token. Their goal is to accumulate themselves into the top 30 wallets for Bitcoin using the ponzi holdings.
I have seen plenty of Steemians pushing Bitconnect, but I never got around to investigating how it actually works.
Please do a post about this more in depth, I followed your Bitconect posts. How is this affecting the BTC? People in Steem need to know
I have heard you are the one to follow which I am now and I would love to see more post by you on the future of bitcoin and steem
Here's a new one I'm looking at: Bitquence (BQX)
Essentially an easier way to purchase a basket of cryptos via an app. Let me know your thoughts.
https://www.bitquence.com/
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6i32aCbnoz6ceS8i2UZR6w
In crypto, "new is better". This is because most projects have no actual user base, meaning the new is better applies because speculators just hop from one project to another. There is one project, older, where they were reinventing the internet, still going, they still make updates, but speculators lost interest all-together. Until such a project gains an actual user base, I never expect speculators to revisit that coin.
So the bitquence project looks like it is new but still in development... but in spite of no live project it has rallied. My rule in those cases, where you have an ICO coin and nothing live, but it has rallied more than a few hundred percent... like 5X or something. My rule in those cases is it is better to sell at that point. People are sitting on a gain and there is no live code. I ignored this rule with EOS, but it would have served me well to sell in the initial hype cycle. This one is sitting on a delayed hype cycle. It could have another leg higher, or that could be it. Just based on the chart, I think it has another leg higher, that said, there are a lot of amazing projects and I don't get interested until I think it will have a sizeable user base. Plenty of amazing concepts with bad execution in the end.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@blockchainttmft/bitquence-the-most-comprehensive-review-you-will-find
I think this project actually has a product. They're providing updates weekly on the development and it looks great so far. Sure, this could be a complete scam, but these folks are going at pretty big lengths to scam people then. Looks legit and I like the idea of being able to buy baskets of cryptos.
Great post Ted - we have been following your investment ideas for a while now and continue to be impressed. We reckon that Sky High guy is fun - but he is no @crypto-investor. Will wait for 4,800-4,900 and then make the layoff you suggest - was thinking a move to EOS, so hoping this will continue to fall at the same. We will check for you comments at this level for any more ideas you might have. Community News and the Team!
I think the reason is that people took so much Bitcoin out of the exchanges to get their Bitcoin cash that currently there's scarcity of it in the exchanges. After they started dumping BCH for BTC, BTC went up. The ICO's that had suffered dips bellow the ICO price recovered and gained 4x-10x returns. Then people started trading the projects close to the 100 top coins to pump and dump. Other coins with projects without news in the close horizon just stagnated.
That summed with the new of people on the news talking about how Bitcoin can get 5% of all the market for gold has people saying the price is gonna go to $10.000.
This could go very well to $10.000 smoothly before it falls over the next 6 week unless there's a problem in Segwits public implementation on August 23 or in November with another split. The couple of ICOs I invested since July have given me 10x returns. So I sold 35% and went to Ether and cash (with a small amount of BTC and BCH). If bitcoin goes 3x, that's nothing compared with it falling and dragging everything else with it.
I think bubble price to be close to $25.000
Great post.Thanks @crypto-investor
I don't have the numbers in front of me but certainly 20+ billion dollars just came in straight to BTC over the last week or less. When lots of smaller investors come in they immediately start nibbling on the alt coins. So this influx must be scared money coming in from the failing mainstream markets.
i am not that technical with stuff but looks like there is no way stopping it now is there any kind of Corrections coming soon enough ??
hey if u have your discord group
I would like to join
I don't run discord, probably wouldn't want to. People on Steemit are nice. Good chunk of my YouTube viewers are trolls and very demanding, not fun people to be around. They still watch so I get the ad revenue, but some just watch to insult me in the comments, so not the kind of people I want to chat with.
well they are idiots,
I have seen many crypto youtubers, most of them want to hype the crypto and dump
you are only one who gives insight of the market