Bitcoins HARSH reality if a solution can't be employed [First post]

in #bitcoin6 years ago

This is my first post on Steemit and I am very excited to bring my thoughts to the community.
(2-5 Minute Read)
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice and everything said here is my personal opinion and meant for insight and entertainment.

Bitcoin definitely needs to have a couple key things "ironed out" before we can even discuss mass adoption, and I’m not talking about bitcoin enthusiasts and traders. I’m talking about critical things needed to be completed before “ma and pa” shops even start accepting it. I came up with some points that are worth discussing regarding the success of bitcoin.

-Transaction times:

People who use bitcoin regularly know the frustrations of waiting for a transaction to be validated on the blockchain. The transaction times are slow because all miners/nodes need to be validated and confirmed as “Valid" for that block to be added to the main chain, then next block can proceed to be mined then added to the blockchain. The Lightning network aims to fix this issue by compiling a bunch of micro transactions “off chain” and by just uploading the final amount as one transaction on the blockchain. This reduces amount of transaction on the main chain by making one umbrella transaction instead of multiple transactions.

-Transaction fees:

The fees of sending bitcoin fluctuate depending on the amount of pending transactions sitting on the memory pool. You can think of the memory pool as a list of pending transactions waiting to be validated by miners. High transaction prices deters people from using bitcoin daily because to buy one cup of coffee that’s around $1.25 ends up being a 10$ cup of coffee after transaction fees. I think that this problem would be solved by the lightning network because there would be less pending transactions sitting on the memory pool, so the fee drop would be coupled with transaction times decreasing. But using the lighting network requires you to set aside bitcoin to be used as "fast cash" and this raises more issues with people who do not own allot of bitcoin.

-Price Volatility:

Bitcoin and Altcoins are very volatile, and many people wouldn’t want to buy or sell anything for bitcoin because they may lose money on a sale. Using bitcoin not only means spending, it also has someone or some company accepting it as a form of payment. So, with price fluctuations one party will gain while the other looses out.

Bitcoin can grow rapidly but, first bitcoin needs to mature as a currency before it is even looked at by institutional money. The reason being is, there’s so much room for bitcoin to grow, at peak the whole crypto market cap was ~850 billion dollar industry, and bitcoins market cap was ~330 billion dollars.
To put that into perspective of why I think bitcoin can grow much more is that The New York stock exchange (NYSE) is valued around 18.5 trillion market cap. So, from this I can see that if bitcoin does prove that it can be a stable store of value and gets all of its flaws ironed out, I truly believe that a lot of institutional money would pour in making bitcoin around ~100k easily which would make its market cap in the range of ~2.1 trillion.

In late 2015 bitcoin surged to around $1200 with all the hype around the crypto space, then slowly started consolidating around the $250-350-dollar range. In late 2017 bitcoin mooned to under 20k before dropping a month later to 9.8k after the hype from the all time high. The long wait times and astronomical transaction fees definitely contributed to the quick drop.

Now for The graphs,

The graph from 2013-15

If bitcoin can’t prove itself this time it will go back in a “dormant state” consolidating to lower levels like it did in the graph above.Now I see Bitcoin trading around the 200-day moving average and my extended 200 day moving average, which sits in the $7000-9000-dollar range long term till there are improvements in bitcoin's speed and transaction costs.

The graph from late 2017-early 2018

TLDR-
Bitcoin will trade around 8k if nothing is done about the current state of bitcoin.

What are your thoughts on my perspective and future speculations? I’m open to a great constructive discussion below.

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Personally, I think it could go even lower. I know there is a huge potential for upside as well but at this time I am not certain we are going to see it. I believe a lot of the bitcoin market has taken the new money for granted. The assumption is people are always going to be dumping in money. The unfortunate fact is a lot of the new money coming into the market does not feel the same way about bitcoin as a lot of the early adopters. I hope the run continues but a lot of the new coins coming out may just surprise some of the more entrenched people in bitcoin. I'm not hating on bitcoin it is an amazing thing it has accomplished but there are some serious issues to address imo if this is going to continue.

i agree man, new coins are surprising us all. i think one of the reasons why btc is on top still is because its the face of crypto but once people enter and see that other coins are doing what bitcoin isnt...a switch might happen and it will be devastating for us all btc lovers

Yeah, I'm glad I'm not the only one seeing this trend. I have diversified pretty well so I'm not too worried about it. It is going to be interesting to watch unfold.

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