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RE: Analyst who accurately predicted Bitcoin reaching $2000 in 2017 is back at it again

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

@jrcornel Certainly an optimistic and encouraging projection!

But what do you think about the detail -- "By his calculations, there should be approximately 17 million bitcoins in circulation 10 years from now at the current inflation rate"?

Can we count on the inflation rate maintaining? I have read more often that it will continue to decrease. This chart (https://cointelegraph.com/news/worlds-best-performing-currency-bitcoin-inflation-rate-drops-to-4)is one such projection of that: .
If that rate of decline is even somewhat accurate, a recalculation of the number in circulation 10 years hence is definitely in order.

Another consideration would be the growing usage of other cryptos. Bitcoin's status as "reserve" crypto doesn't need to change for it to "lose ground" against the likes of ETH, ETC, LTC, DASH and a few of others that are showing increased popularity as transactional (and not merely speculating / tradable) currencies.

If the overall popularity of cryptos does indeed spread (extensive, i.e. more users worldwide) and deepen (intensive, i.e. each user uses more) in the coming decade, one would expect that increase to be distributed among top-tier currencies. And although it might be hard to predict which ones will be "tier 1" currencies, we can extrapolate a bit here and imagine that together with BTC we will see more of:

  1. those using the ethereum protocol will stand a good chance of wider adoption;
  2. those addressing concerns like security / privacy (XMR comes to mind here) will gain usage;
  3. those with a declared specific customer base / purpose (XRP and large, institutional banks and cross-border payments, and ICN and money managers creating baskets of cryptos for investors to buy into come to mind);
  4. and finally, those that invest a lot in marketing and separate themselves from the others that will be relegated to speculative status (thinking of VHS prevailing over Beta and dominating the home-user market).

The popularity of others may not slow the increase in outstanding BTC, but it could temper its price action.

Just some thoughts.

I'm new on Steemit. Follow me @mwanacomete and we can share ideas :)

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