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RE: BTC - Forget the 40% drop, Hash Rate is back to All Time Highs!
It all depends on how they calculate the total hashrate of the network... As far as I know, there isn't one accurate method, as that would require knowing API address of all mining pools in the world and fetching the individual statistics at the exact same moment.
It is also possible that the drop happened due to blocḱ(s) where the actual solving difficulty was a lot less than the expected difficulty. This is because "total" hash rate is essentially block difficulty divided by expected solving time, not the actual solving time.
Yep, but either way, it means something 'out of the ordinay' happened during that stretch of time in order to get such a large drop, especially when compared to the range of other drops.
As a coin developer and also maintainer of a mining pool, I can honestly say even large drops are totally normal... More there is hash rate, more drastic drops are normal as stratum difficulty depends totally on individual hashing powers of miners and stratum difficulty, not block difficulty, is what dictates when individual miners submit their hashes...
To sum things up, there will always be large drops, because the network eventually needs to stabilize, otherwise time between consecutive blocks would keep increasing until no more blocks can be solved anymore. Average block difficulty will always drift away from the target difficulty, but it will never drift away far enough to cause network stall...
Maybe just the trend is enough then? If not one or the other method is right?
Yep, either way the trend is telling, and something to take note of when you get an outlier.
There isn't one right method, it's all irrelevant as the only important thing is how much the average block difficulty has deviated from the target difficulty. Target difficulty is the difficulty that is required for constant time between two consecutive blocks. When hash rate is measured during time span of one second, difficulty is measured during time span set when the coin was created, usually fractions of minutes or several minutes. Both are same unit, but different magnitude.
Brilliant! I love that you know so much 👍🏼😃
Statistical analysis is the very first thing I did while still in business college... I can do it inside my head without using any written notes. On my first day at work, I did memorize about 1000 pages of data and present breakdown of the data with summary of all discrepancies. Basically I then verified it using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) script running as Excel macro that did input all pages line-by-line from raw alpha-numeric dump file as 3-dimensional array and presented it as pivot table.
Nice! That’s a very handy skill to have. Unfortunately for me, I’ve forgotten more maths than I was ever taught 😃👍🏻
I was never taught maths... It's something I've mastered since I was 4 years old. Maths and languages are similar, either you have innate ability to master them, or you are just repeating other people.