RE: Trace Mayer's Mayer Multiple, Metcalfe's law
I think the BTC price follows metcalfe's law. This chart is only completed till 2014 and follows the graph perfectly. Between 2017 and 2018 it should be 10k and it is! furthermore it makes a lot of sense to me that it does, the theory behind is quite solid. Beside that a calculation of adoption and market cap compare to other assets gives also a short term target of 100 k and longer term target of 1 million.
The Trace Mayer multiple is very useful, I will start use it too. In the last bull/ bear market I didn't cash enough out at highs and had to sell for living at lows. Now my next project is to create a system based on the multiple to decide the part of my income that I allocate in BTC or gold. When BTC is overpriced I will allocate most in gold and when BTC is undervalued I will allocate most in BTC. Also I will live off BTC when the price is above the moderate (1.47x) and live off gold when it is under. This way I never have to worry about the markets anymore.
Hey michiel, thanks for visiting the blog and glad you found a few bits useful. I will definitely be paying much more attention to the 200 dma with regards to buys/sells. I am typically a hodL'er, and don't do much trading, but it definitely helps define the low points for BTC.
I use a few of the other basic forms of technical analysis to find buy points. Mostly stochastics and high volume around a spike low.
I sure hope BTC follows Metcalfe's law as most of the other top 'alt' coins/tokens will most likely follow. I can definitely see worldwide adoption, but can also see governments getting involved as well too. Especially with taxes on cryptos. We shall see, 1 year in crypto is a long time!