I Didn't Sell Then Either

in #bitcoin3 years ago

Though bitcoin only makes up 35% of the total cryptocurrency market cap, it is still the main barometer for the entire cryptocurrency space. Most currency pairs still involve bitcoin, so when it goes down hard, it impacts everything. Let's be clear. This looks bad:

Now close your eyes and think about that chart.








Go ahead.

Keep em closed.








Okay, now open your eyes again.








Now take a look at this:

Does it look familiar?

This is the price of bitcoin up to December 18, 2013.

I didn't sell then either.

Fractals and patterns exist everywhere in nature and we, as part of nature, may also be impacted by them when the neurons fire and our emotions engage and we panic sell or FOMO buy.

If this is your first bitcoin roller coaster ride, make sure you have your seat belt on and strap in.


(Source)

We're just getting started.

For some more perspective, check out this hilarious (obviously ironic) 1 minute video by Alex Millar made back in 2015. It's all the more relevant today in 2018:

So welcome to the party. It's a volatile, speculative market for those who have positioned themselves to enjoy the ride. Don't invest what you're unwilling to lose and be sure to take care of your basic needs long before speculating in this space. Get out of debt first. Get some savings. Learn and grow and participate when you are ready.

I believe the future involves competing money maintained by global, non-violent consensus on an immutable distributed ledger which will change how we think about value itself.

I hope you're joining us in this peaceful revolution. If you're not sure where to start, start here: http://understandingblockchainfreedom.com


Luke Stokes is a father, husband, business owner, programmer, STEEM witness, and voluntaryist who wants to help create a world we all want to live in. Visit UnderstandingBlockchainFreedom.com

I'm a Witness! Please vote for @lukestokes.mhth

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We're in different circumstances today. In past bubbles, lowering price and hashpower did not prevent Bitcoin from being useful to those who were using it (primarily Silk Road users).

Today the utility of the network is directly impacted by a declining price and hashpower. It's also in a competitive environment versus other networks, with one almost about to surpass it in market cap. There is also the death spiral scenario, which is only a realistic possibility with full blocks.

It's my view that Bitcoin investors will soon start to realize they backed the MySpace/Netscape of the crypto world, and moving foward cryptos won't always come back from a crash.

I visited a newly opened 'Crypto Café' last Tuesday. They didn't bother to accept Bitcoin, only Litecoin and Ether for payments, because it was totally unusable for basic low value transactions which are described in the Bitcoin whitepaper.

Yep, I completely agree. That's why bitcoin's share went from around ~80% to the 35% it has today. It's also why I'm a big fan of DPOS coins like BitShares, STEEM, and soon EOS. If we have a dot com bubble popping moment coming (I'm not convinced this is it, we still have many trillions of dollars further up to go), then the real companies, projects, and cryptocurrencies will show themselves true, just like before.

Hey Luke, thanks for helping people focus on long-term goals and not letting fear take over. One key point from your post is:

If this is your first bitcoin roller coaster ride, make sure you have your seatbelt on and strap in.

We need to remember "our why." Our why is what directs us to make decisions for today and in the future.

Absolutely correct! So many people have never really done the work to understand why cryptocurrency matters to the world and why so many people will come to value it. With that in place, with rational, first-principle reasons to support our conclusion, we can avoid all this drama as temporary fluctuations on a much larger scale.

Yes indeed . I concur.

Based off of your previous experience @lukestokes it's safe to say beginners out there like myself should not sell. Your previous experiences show that one has not lost any value until they have sold during a dip.

I just bought my first EOS (with euro's). So i'm going to HODL for a while!

Very cool. I have a recurring reminder on my computer that just says, "Buy more EOS." I try to keep that in mind whenever I get interested in some random coins. :)

I should have had that sign months ago. But was waiting for a pullback a long time (and missed massive gains in the mean time :S:S:S)

Yea everyone is losing their mind right now. We are only 9 years into a 131 year project (When the last BTC gets mined).

Now you have to ask yourself what is your endgame.

That's a fantastic way to look at it.

Guys keep calm please please play game rather you sold panic it was only correction 12000 $

Yes i agree with @alao i think people are going into a frenzy over nothing. Tbh i am not sure if or how many people in crypto have had much experience in the institutional markets, but i would suspect the majority have and for those that haven’t. They have not yet developed the mindset that what goes up must come down and back up again.

If you look at the long term bollinger bands we have been happily bobbing up and down in the lower half for a while now. Once this frenzy of selling has slowed down i can see a massive bullish run possibly tipping 20k.

Yeah, when the real money starts moving in freely, things will get really interesting.

I'm hodling strong...

Lots of bitcoin newbies out there. The ones that sold in panic with China might still be holding strong. Interestingly I think the guys that didn’t buy after China are looking to build a position now. I first bought in feb 2014 after waiting for the correction. I bet there are lots of people out there thinking that. Square and robinhood should make it easy for them by summer time.

LMAO hilarious "you know it's gonna' crash." That was too funny. All I could think was "and this one time at band camp............." Thanks brother, I needed that! And yes it's like anything else..... peaks and valleys.

Yeah, it's the same theme and super funny. Such a great video.

I am also hodling and when i am able to i buy. Especially in dips like these. I know on long term this dip is nothing and no reason to panic.

It's so funny to me how small the "crash" of 2013 looks on the 2018 chart. It's, as you said, "nothing."

Exactly..its more a tiny rimple in a straight line up gehe

The market is unregulated and there is a lot of people trying to get rich quick. They will fall victim's of the news FOMOing, leading them to buy the ATH's rather than the dip. Those people most likely won't be able to hold their position after the market goes into a downfall creating the "crash" effect. The same people will never return but they were in to make money, not for the technology itself. The market then resets with the true value of the coin intact. After that state we reach new ATH and the cycle keeps repeating. We are in the downwards trend right now, what do you think will happen next? ;)

My hunch is they will return once cryptocurrency becomes stable money. By then, all the future value will be priced in and fluctuations like this will be much harder due to a larger market cap and more and more people unwilling to sell for fiat.

Bitcoin may only have 35% of the market share with crypto its got like 90% of the medias attention.

Every time a day like today happens in the crypto world, you should do yourself a favor and go watch any of the hundreds of videos of Andreas Antonopoulos speak so eloquently about internet money and #Bitcoin. It will bring you back to the fundamental reason why we are all together in this transformation of the financial world.

I love all of his videos. I love how much the community came together to donate over $1.6M worth of BTC to him. That's the gift economy in action! It's amazing to see.

Great article Luke, I like how you have already experienced a previous crash and were also holding all your cryptocurrencies through that one.

For me personally it's the first crash of this measure I am seeing but I am not panicking and I know the precious meaning of HODL! I have a lot of faith in cryptocurrencies and as usual I feel it will rise from the ashes all this recent FUD has caused, soon we will reach new ATH's ... #faith

I'm ready to land on the moon at the end of this year!

hodl.gif

Happy Steeming!

Feel free to check out my blog @maxdigi, this way we can support each other. I would love your support!

Cheers
maxidigi

Welcome to the party. :)

i agree blood in the street right now people are panic and anxious about bitcoin i have a point, people were happy when bitcoin goes to peak and when it starts fall they are afraid of it, so this what we called our society is low risk takers so low risk low profit, hold it listen all hold it

Yep. The smart people are making smart money right now. Those who operate based on fear are getting rekt.

I'm ready to ride this roller coaster long and hard to the ultimate end. And I'm gonna buy the picture of me screaming when I get off. screaming.jpg

Yup, you only lose money if you choose to sell low.

I have never seen that video before. I love it!

Don't buy bitcoin because it is going to crash!


That would make a great t-shirt....

Isn't in hilarious? I've watched it over and over now. So funny.

You all getting ready for your trip? I'm excited for ours as well. Florida, here we come!

Yeah, been trying to tie up loose ends at work so they can make it with out me.
We have been watching Star Wars and Disney movies all week. Heading to Windsor on Monday and then we fly out early on Saturday morning. Can't wait to take a break from the snow. Had to pull out the snow blower yet again today.

This is my second roller coaster ride.
The first was bloodier and I thought I had learnt all my lessons but now this again.

This market is really unpredictable but I will HODL.

HODLERS ALWAYS WIN

Holders always win indeed. It's tempting to want to win more by timing things perfectly, and some can do it, but it's risky.

Well, that's it, it seems that Bitcoin crashed at 8000$ this time :))

This time I am going to start buying myself, maybe at the end of the weekend I will have my first pieces of crypto bought with fiat, I hope it will go well :D Thank you again for your Smart tips, they were one of the first crypto I've ever had!

Ah, very cool! Be sure to watch my understanding blockchain freedom videos to fully understand what it's all about and protect yourself.

For sure I will, I guess you mean these videos. Thank you again for all your support and help, if you wouldn't have done the things you have done, I wouldn't be here, trying to orient myself in this world of crypto and help giving Steem more back.

I mean what important witness and person in this ecosystem stops to read the newbies questions and answer and guide them? Few do that, and you are one of them :D

Yep, those are the ones. Thanks for your support. :)

Everyone keeps complaining about the red, but when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture all I'm seeing is the inclined plane indicating growth.

Yep. Many who have been involved in markets for a long time see this as a very healthy correction and a great opportunity for those who have been on the sideline to get involved.

Definitely. I have a few friends that wish they had more fiat to buy in some more now.

Hells no. The only thing I'm sweating right now is if it's the right time to buy more. I don't think it's going to fall under 7 but I am still holding out for a better purchase.

Good luck holding out. :)

I have seen so many up and downs, people who lose their head and sell now will regret it, same with people who power down and cash out. Like the Guns n Roses song says all we need is just a little patience

True stuff, Luke! I haven't sold either! Looking forward to a rocking 2018!

It's a great lesson for people who haven't been privvy to cryptos back then. I remember back in 2013, I was hodling LTC instead of BTC because of the price. I was hoping to get in on the next big coin, that's why I skipped the Bitcoin train and hopped on its silver. In a way, I feel like this could be good for the other cryptos in the long run. I'm thinking of this as BTC's swan song, and after the correction people would take notice of the underlying technology of the other coins. BTC has been great to introduce the world of the cryptos' potential, but now it needs to move over and pass the torch to worthy successors. Too bad that it has tons of pairings though. I do hope they would be switched over to a less volatile currency.

You're so wonderful
Thanks for sharing @lukestokes

I mean he's aight at best

So so, maybe?

I'm at least a solid, "meh."

So scared for all my investment i hope steem would be different,am scared

You got to ride the waves man. People that have been in crypto a while will tell you that this is normal.

If you're scared by things like this, then you probably shouldn't be in the market. Look at the history of cryptocurrency. This is normal. If normal makes you scared, you may have too much invested or you may be taking risks that are beyond what's comfortable.

I can't afford to invest any money into cryptocurrencies. What I can do, is spend the time I spent on other social media sites on Steemit instead. So grateful for this platform that's allowing me to reach a new and fast growing audience for my art, all while allowing me the opportunity to earn SteemPower/SBD and get into the crypto market that way. There's a lot to learn on here and I feel I'm still just starting to understand it, hope to be part of it for a long time to come.

As I've said for over a year and a half, Steemit and STEEM create the killer app for global mass adoption of cryptocurrency for every-day people. That's really truly exciting for me as I've been hoping for something like this since the start of 2013.

That’s the truth! Keep on STACKIN, bunch of fomo haha

STACK ON for sure! Hope things are going well in Vegas land.

All good Bossman, roll up sometimes 🙌🏼💪🏼💯

@lukestokes Good post! I like the positivity. In the bigger picture, all the dibs won't matter. :) Best wishes, -@splendorhub

What I'm trying to learn is how to play like the guy that sells at 19000 and waits five weeks to buy at 7500. Every new year I will be working towards making that opportunity come to fruition.
I'm going to take more profits this year and not get married to too many coins. And as always gain emotional maturity to let emotions pass by and not react to them.

It's hard to catch a falling knife. Some people can time it, but most just miss out. Holding is a safer bet, IMO, unless you're really a pro. Otherwise, you'll miss the big spikes up which often move faster than the dips.

It's true that at the beginning of every year we tend to have a big Market dip. I really think within a couple of months everything will be back on track and everyone will be feeling good again.

At least those people that didn't sell.

Maybe. I hope so. After 2013, things were rough for a couple years at least. Some fear we may see the same pattern here. Time will tell, I guess. I think there are too many people taking cryptocurrency seriously now, so I'd be very surprised if it didn't keep heading upwards eventually (and relatively soon, compared to before).

True !! Every coin has his day !! :p
We shouldn’t leave it’s hand in the bad times as it didn’t leave our hand in the bad times.

7F109851-5E78-4217-A1EB-B4DDC01C041C.png

Hahah. I'm not picturing myself walking hand in hand down the beach with that cartoon bitcoin character. :)

You can imagine them sleeping all relaxed in ur pocket with no fear 😛😂.

Allow your imaginations to take the lead 😬

Very sad dear..But unfortunate this crypto now down..But this crypto will again hold after some time..
Just wait and see..

I'm confident it will. The patterns continue.

I love this post because you mentioned the connection between fractals in nature rather than just in our candle stick graphs. I’m no elliotician but I’ve learned to read the charts with my knowledge of the golden ratio. I just saw the patterns that existed in nature.

The charts started reminding me of my Bonsai trees. I could see that the charts often resembled them.

Anyways, I owe you an upvote. I’m gonna hold off today because I need to let my power regenerate a bit. I went a bit crazy last night with my upvotes. You can hold me to it that I’ll not forget about this. Thanks @lukestokes.

Hahah. Nice. I know the feeling. "You get an upvote. You get an upvote. EVERYONE gets and upvote!" and then you're like, "Hey, how did my voting power go down to 30%?"

No worries, man. Spread the love around to some new users. I get plenty of love already.

Haha thanks for understanding man. My votes only worth about 0.04 at the moment so when it gets down a couple cents- I feel pretty useless.

Peace!

thanks luke for that piece of advice, i will definitely strap my sit belt.

It's definitely an interesting turn of events and will be just as so to see what happens next but I would say your advice all sound all round and my own feeling is things will return to where they were a couple of months ago and beyond within the next few months... but who knows right. :)

Hope your day is going well mate. :)

It's been fantastic, thanks! I got to do an interview earlier, I got sushi with a friend for lunch, and we have some friends coming over to hang out tonight. Life is good. :)

It definitely takes a strong hand to hold on through these dips, but it's well worth it in the end. Bitcoin and the rest of the market will bounce back. I think a lot of the panic comes from two different scenarios. 1) New money that doesn't really understand what's going on. 2) People who are investing more than they can afford to lose. Both of the scenarios are dangerous, but if we can keep people calm, they'll be just fine!

Yes, indeed. People doing stupid things creates stupid situations. Until the "regular" people wise up and realize what the "rich people" are doing to manipulate these markets and take advantage of the weak hands, then those people will always remain regular. Hold and buy the dips makes sense to me.

well its not easy though. I am not really into cryptocurrecy. If not for steemit i might not have known a coin called bts. i am in this group where i want to learn and today it was drama. A lot of people selling and paqnicking. Was just laughing cos I have just 300$ in all coins apart from steem. for now i believe in steem alone.

I hope it wont break my heart though.

but then self how many do i have? lol

It's so sad to see people panic selling at the bottom or FOMO (fear of missing out) buying at the top. This is an opportunity for everyone to level up their understanding and figure some things out. They'll all be stronger for it and be better prepared in the future. Fear makes people do stupid things.

hehe. ill just stay strong with steem

Exactly and i suppose if you were to paraphrase Warren Buffet he would be telling you buy on the way down and sell on the way up. No better time than now to do some DCA and buying into the position and even if it goes deeper buy in again. Its all a win on the way up.

Hey Luke, thanks for the reminder.
I have to say I‘m completely calm, since I see this like a long term invest.
I see so many people who say the same but don‘t really mean it.
They are thinking of selling what would be the worst alternative to do right now in my opinion.
I am still convinced and it will not change even if bitcoins reaches $ 1000 again ;-)

For steem the same of course!

Glad to hear at least someone else out there is calm. I'm starting to realize there are some out there who absolutely love these big dips. They wait for them excitedly and load up on cheap coins.

I have to say I would love the dips as well, if I just had the money to buy again.
Unfortunately the reality is that I am a poor student who does not have the opportunity. Hehe

These dips are just healthy for the growth of the whole market and many people who are just invested because of the fast money are leaving as well.
So I don‘t see any reason to panic.

This is just a phase that the very few patients ones will understand.. I think this is the best time to buy bitcoin at a lower price because it will definitely rise again

It reay bothers me now that during this correction everyone keeps saying, "See! I told you it was just a huge bubble" and completely disregarding the technology for what it is. It will take a while before the market decides on a stable price and until then we could go to 20,000 or back to 1,000 and everyone just needs to relax a bit. Great insight though

I agree, don’t invest what you can’t afford. It’s just like gambling, it’s never a sure thing. Being practical and making sure your commitments are met befor you invest in anything is so important.

Luke look this snapshot post @. I wonder how many times I will have to draw that kind of chart again. It always about this bubble bursts!

I wouldn't be surprised if there is even more downward pressure across the market. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it fell all the way to around $5,000.

You are correct though that we have seen this show before! It isn't the first time and won't be the last time!

I heard some people I trust who really understand markets in general who figured this would come into the $8,500 to $7,500 range as the floor. I'm really curious to see if they are right.

@tradewonk showed it perfectly yesterday in his diagram. If you retrace the fibonacci down to the 78th percentile we whould meet the next level of support which is about that 7500-8k mark

A3D8FF7C-0CD2-4D2D-9537-E79A978A59E6.png

I hope they are right! There is gonna be some major panic if it continues to drop!!

Part of the reason bitcoin dropping so much can hurt so much is that a lot of smaller alt-coins are tired to bitcoin, so it can affect their exchange. It sucks that BTC is dropping so much as it drags the rest of the market down. It does mean it's a great buying opportunity though!

Great buying opportunity indeed! That, I think, is what most people miss. They aren't looking for opportunities to become rich which is when you can buy something cheap that you know will be valuable in the future, but few others can see it yet. That's where real wealth is made.

B8FAF5AE-6DEE-49DF-8B6F-612B0C900E30.png

This is a buying opportunity..... but I would tread lightly. Because Tether and Bitfinix, are a dark factor that can bring the market crashing. It could be another mount gox episode if tether is proven to be a scam. Tether created more than 2.3 billion coins in just 1.5 years..... and ignoring a subpoena. Looks and feel really fishy. I just hope I am wrong, but will have cash on the side...just in case I am right.

i bought more a few hours ago and a couple of days ago too -- these dips are excellent opportunities to top up at affordable pricing. i know i could be waiting years or lose my money, but more likely it will $50000 by the end of this year or even mid year. Have to think how many people wanted to buy at $15000 and above , and now it is the chance they should be grabbing. I reckon most people are still in profit at any price above a $1000 so most would be holding and knowing this will pass. There is only 21000000 available so the price has to reflect the rarity again soon. Institutional investors are dipping their toes in now and the price is set to rocket up again. thanks for your great blog - upvoted

Haha, loved seeing my buddy's video there, it's getting pretty notorious :) Soon he'll get Youtube rewards thanks to Bitcoin crash popularity ! It's so damn hard to sell when we doing great, we think it's gonna go on forever, and it's damn stupid to see when we're bathing in sea of red. Just switch your attention and be creative, that's what I do. Fast forward one month, life is green again. Much love bro, great layout, great post. 100% upvote! See you soon!

I saw an old twitter post from last summer saying " I think we are going to look back on this and wish we had bought Bitcoin at $2000" Easy to forget that the price of Bitcoin was that low last summer and by any normal investment terms would still be considered a great investment with the gains it has already enjoyed.

Hello, Luke.

Thank you for sharing. I whipped up a quick post on this similar subject and ran some numbers as seen here.

My most recent analysis is very bearish, but I am long term bullish. I believe blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies will make this world much more efficient and effective.

Goodluck and Godspeed, my friend.

It is totally wild right now but I was actually doing the same thing just a hour ago looking at other years. And there is always this same trend its just more in your face now with values such as $19,000 instead of $900 but the pattern is there.

It's kinda spooky, isn't it? The patterns just keep re-emerging.

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