"It's the early stages, the usage will grow, don't be naive....".
"This is how all new technologies begin, we are early adopters going through the phase....".
"You are such a pessimist, look at all the money we are making...."
Statements that are partially true and could easily invalidate my post's title. Nobody knows what the future beholds for blockchain or crypto in general, we don't even know if blockchain will be a thing or just a relic that will fade in time just like Netscape did.
There are a few ways one can speculate on the future and project upon it. One is to draw arbitrarily drawn lines that are agreed historically from a consensus. We call it "Technical Analysis" and for some its is the path of price projection. There is a catch though. I am not a man of TA because it nothing less other than the evolution of tarot card reading. I believe as a rational human being that self fulling prophecies work at will, always. It's validity is as solid as a cat chasing a laser beam, thinking that it is pretty, until the dot jumps above its paw, leaves it confused and then chases it again just to be sure.
But lets assume for a second that TA is a valid aspect of the crypto world and that sometimes it can offer what the speculators call as an "edge" and with even 50% accuracy, you can select specific trades and with some risk analysis to turn them profitable. Are all lines drawn through an axis subject to the same rules? If not why not?
You see Technical Analysis is used in forex markets for currencies or for stocks that have millions of users. In other words it is used in environments where there is fair distribution, enough subjects to take part in the market (including bots) and time. Lot's of time. The longer the time span, the clearer the picture. Even there the trade is dodgy and already decided with those with faster connections. If you want more information on why the whole thing is a game already decided read Michael Lewis book "Flash Boys".
wow trend, much gains
This brings us to cognitive dire straights situation. Join any group about crypto, visit any social media, sit and talk around a table in real life, count and analyze the key words of conversations (like I do with an algo) and you will notice that approximately there is 87% talk about gambling aka (pump, dump, moon, lambo, retirement), about 5% political implications of the technology and 8% technological discussions which are almost primarily driven by the developers themselves.
I would imagine that inside a casino the same percentages apply but in this case it will be the technology behind the slot machines, politics about the laws of the casino and the rest, the vast majority will be how to get rich. Now, how would one chart a slot machine or a crabs table? Where does the luck end and skill begin? Even TA maximalists would giggle at the thought.
One could argue that stocks, bonds and forex markets are based on gambling as well. Even though most traders have yet to realize that they cannot speed trade like a bot on privately owned cables that span across the globe, they like to believe they can do so. Hope is held from the outliers that made it in the business world and share youtube videos and success stories. They are inspiring enough to get the average guy to follow the recipe and most likely get fucked in the process. But hey, teaching was never about teaching the actual technique but rather cashing out on ignorance about chaos and causality. This is how you get the Tony Robins of our era. The famous saying goes "If you have no idea how to do it yourself, teach it to someone else". And it works. Every, single, time.
I have rarely met any serious investor in the cryptocurrency space. Most people in my time that lost the Bitcoin train, started investing in scams as a way to generate more Bitcoin, then invested those in new scams and after they relatively made it, decided to average down their risk in properties and other (serious) investments. In other words, crypto is used as a funding vehicle for real, actual world economic endeavors. Venture Capitalists know this very well. It's a game of musical chairs and you are better of not left with the dig in your hand. Once it was all about the technology of Bitcoin. Now it is all about speculating BTC as in means to dumping on to another person while holding a bag for future potential pumps.
Digital money and token issuance is not a revolutionary technology. Self-custody will never pick up because most humans are not wired in accepting self responsibility. This is also the reason why we will always need leaders, governments and some kind of authority figures to dictate us what to do. Even the most libertarian folk I met, in less than 20 lines of arguments they bring up the figure they follow, a trader they copy, a meme they follow so they can make sense of their "independent revolution" It is entertaining to say the least. They are groupies like those they accuse and fall under the same shortcomings.
Revolutionary wise, right now, Bitcoin looks like it belongs to this realm
Now, there are always exceptions to the rule but we don't care about those because we are talking about world spread adaptation of a new revolutionary technology. Already we saw online banks like coinbase and soon Bakkt offering such solutions and possibly the same products as in the current financial system. Banks love the blockchain technologies as well since they can track anyone and anything at any time. Governments would drool over it since taxation will be automated. Blockchain is like letting the masses fasten themselves with their own chains. Facebook did the same with privacy. Who in their right mind would imagine that one would share their location, likes, dislikes personal moments, everything really with everyone and be happy about it for being monetized in all possible ways? Well, it happened and most didn't even notice. Banks and governments will do the same with the new shiny shiny "economic liberator" called crypto.
At one point in time Bitcoin held the niche for the average-pleb privacy solution since normies couldn't afford the kind of privacy higher ups are enjoying in their own system. Now, almost all transactions can be tracked. Saying that newer solutions will offer true privacy is like McAfee boasting about his unhackable device. You know that the bridge is imminent.
What the future might hold for crypto is much what we have today already in place and what has always been going for hundreds of years. Technology has a funny way mocking the human species because it likes to take a fundamental human problem and add extra steps between the human and the need it satisfies but still leaves us hanging with the same empty feeling.
The telegram, phones and now social media solve the same human communication problem and one could argue that there is nothing like face to face communication. Masks can be worn in either of these mediums and quality information could be exchanged much the same way depending on how one evaluates information. Finance has not changed much either. People have things to trade with one another, value is still subjective and dependent on democratic acceptance, scarcity and perception.
Paper has been memed into actual money as much as Bitcoin has. Bitcoin maximalists argue that the current system is backed by nothing other than paper printing. Paper money maximalists argue that Bitcoin is backed by nothing than arbitrary mathematical solutions that don't solve any actual real problem. People believe in paper money because it serves a societal purpose even if that sometimes funds wars. Bitcoin has been used similarly from criminals as well. In actuality they are both FIAT currencies since the very definition of FIAT is issuance without the backing of physical commodity.
If everyone bought one and you held 21 of these rare babies you would be rich!
This post is getting long enough so let me leave you with this. Much like one questions the current system where they find themselves weak and exposed to the whales and sharks that are out to get them, think about the same entities ruling the crypto sphere and how the space is offering any new alternatives for the average guy. Are you striving for a new technology that will save the average human from the current oppressing system or are you trying to become the new kingpin in a new circlejerk? Rest assured, every leader and dictator, every politician and authority figure you are accusing and trying to escape from, at some point wanted a better world.
But shortly after, something pumped.