To trade or not to trade – that is the 64 bitcoin question

Zen masters may say it takes 10 000 hours to master a task or a skill, but when it comes to trading it takes about 10 years, or more specifically about 8 years. That’s how long a full cycle is in finance, from boom to bust and back to boom again. The current financial global market saw its last bust in 2008, so we are overdue another crash. Despite that it seems to be staggering along just fine, thank you. Teetering on the edge is a perfectly normal place to be…for a surfer.

Riding the waves of price action is a traders’ world, but what do we do when the waves are flat? We go to another beach. At present bitcoin is a no trade zone. The waves are so flat due to absent volume, etc that it’s not worth the effort, paddling like crazy for a mere ripple or two, pun intended. So the really keen traders either give up trading for now and go back to studying the art of trading, or they diversify. A good trader only trades assets that are in play, and since bitcoin is such a hard market now, the solution is to be flexible and find a better market with better waves, like Forex.

That’s what I’m doing now. Flexibility is key in most industries, and especially here in trading. Not only is it valuable in the art of pattern recognition, but also when it comes to the strategy one uses overall. If you want to day trade bitcoin, that’s fine, but just be aware that we are stuck in shallow waters with lots of sharks and whales. The range is a mere $700, from the psychological low of around $3000, up until the resistance at around $3700. That’s it. All we have trading at present are bots and noobs, the latter busy getting dumped or stopped out by the million times smarter bots and algos.

It is the adaptable and the flexible who will survive, according to evolution, and common sense. This ability to adjust according to market conditions applies not just to trading strategy but also to market conditions. A strategy is crucial to begin with. What is your trading strategy? Have one before going into any trading. Have a profit target, only trade the trend, wait for a breakout, whatever suits your risk tolerance. And on top of that be willing to vary your strategy, to adjust it as the conditions shift.

For example when the bitcoin market is flat, rather move to Forex. And cultivate a sense of timing. Any surfer or sailor will tell you that as they ride the waves of the ocean. Timing has more to do with letting the market give you information, and then making the required adjustments. Then there is no need for speculative predicting of where price is heading. In a difficult or flat market like the one we have now in crypto, there is even more need for discipline and patience. Sometimes it is better not to trade at all and simply wait.

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
– Warren Buffett

As a day trader we are not only trading against the price, or based on fundamentals like economic reports. We are also trading against the psychology of other traders, and ultimately you are trading based on yourself. It’s like a golfer who may need to consider the wind and the course but basically s/he is competing against their own mind on the day. That’s why I enjoy the industry so much. It allows me to work out and improve by pitting my skills against the markets, with the aim to acquire those 10000 hours or rather those 10 years of experience so that, by the time I’m 60, I will have finally mastered the art, and can then not retire, but rather begin to make the advancement I would like. Sometimes life begins at 60.

pics: http://www.asia-pacificboating.com/features/2010/indonesia-mentawai-islands
https://investlb.com/en/gmartin-trader-expert-advisor/