Just because the bubble popped, doesn't mean it's game over!
The bubble may have popped, but that doesn't mean it can't re-inflate.
I wrote a post a few days back talking about the cryptocurrency bubble officially bursting.
It wasn't meant to say that prices are never coming back, and it also wasn't meant to say that prices couldn't go lower still.
Some seemed to misunderstand those points.
What I meant was that we have an asset class that has now officially pulled back some 80% from its highs and in most cases an asset class that pulls back some 80% from it's highs can be defined as a bubble popping.
By the way, the earlier post can be seen here:
https://steemit.com/crypto/@jrcornel/well-it-looks-like-the-bubble-has-officially-popped
Some specifics:
The total market cap went from over $900 billion to under $200 billion.
Bitcoin has "only" pulled back about 71% from peak to trough, but many altcoins have experienced much more pain.
Just take a look at this list, and keep in mind these are some of the better altcoins out there:
(Source: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1030884169763549184)
Just about all of them are down over 80% from their highs and some are even down more than 90%.
Steem also is down a similar amount from its peak to trough.
Certainly looks like a bubble that has burst to me
This doesn't mean it is game over.
In fact, I don't think it is game over by a long shot.
I tend to be of the belief that there are many smaller bubbles in the context of one much larger bubble.
We have already seen these smaller bubbles inflate and burst several times before in the crypto space.
Just looking at the charts, it looks like there have been 2 other significant bubbles in the last 8 years or so.
In each of those cases, prices ultimately went on to make new highs after the corrective phase of the bubble bursting was over.
I fully expect the same thing to happen here.
Check this out:
(Source: https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1030958688519958528)
As you can see the last major bubble ocurred in late 2013.
Prices took about a year and a half before the correction was over and an uptrend was resumed.
This current bubble bursting looks very much like what happened starting in 2013.
I think the current environment is very much like the one seen in 2013, though I don't think it will take quite as long for us to turn back up.
At this point, bitcoin peaked in mid December, which means we are over 8 months into this correction. I would not be surprised to see prices start to pick back up within the next several months.
Which would also line up with right about the time they reach that trend line posted on the chart above.
Also, if previous patterns repeat, take a look on that chart where the next bullish phase would take bitcoin prices...
I don't want to throw out predictions, but based on that chart $90,000 to $100,000 certainly seems to be within striking distance during the next euphoria phase.
Remember, this has always been the historical pattern of bitcoin:
(Source: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2017/06/projecting-price-of-bitcoin.html)
If prices do not recover and go on and make new highs, it would be the first time ever.
Would you rather bet on a trend or something that has never happened before?!
These patterns are mostly about bitcoin, but if bitcoin rallies steem is likely to go along for the ride. Plus steem is planning to launch quite a few exciting projects over the next 12 months itself.
Stay informed my friends.
Image Source:
https://fee.org/articles/bitcoin-bubble-toil-and-trouble/
Follow me: @jrcornel
Of course the markets will recover once crypto project really get traction in real users.
Facebook & Google blocking crypto ads started the bear market.
It dramatically slowed the flow of new people into crypto and prevented projects getting users and funding.
That's why JPB Liberty is enabling everyone in Crypto to claim damages against them by Joining the Class Action against the Crypto Ad Ban.
Its anonymous, no win no fee and you even got bonus tokens for signing up.
Interesting. Did you sign up?
Yes, I've signed up.
Full disclosure: I'm the CEO for JPB Liberty. :-)
If you check out this post you can seem some other Steemians who are supporting this.
😩😖😖😩😖😩😖😩
Why sad, if history repeats this is just a bump in the road and a time to buy.
I would be careful. It can also go that way: Would you rather bet on a trend or lose everything? Don't get me wrong, I think Blockchain will change the world, but we want it to grow too fast in a too short amount of time.
Very true. Past results do not necessarily predict future results, but they often rhyme.
Really but prove yourself bitcoin
Once we get to that trend line, it will be time for bitcoin to prove itself. Until then I am not too concerned.
The 2017 run-up (and previous years run-ups) were purely speculation based (had no real ties to development, use-cases, active users...), but any future run-ups in the crypto space will likely be quite different than the 2017 one and the ones before and will require actual advances in development, actual real-world use cases, and actual increases in daily active users to cement the validity of each coin beyond purely speculation (which is actually starting to really happen for a select few top-tier coins).
Basically, I don't think the crypto space is dead in any sense of the word but actual valid uses will be needed before the space will be able to explode upwards again like it has in the past.
As an added sidenote many appear to be expecting the crypto market to pump again in Nov/Dec of this year, and then crash again in Q1 of 2019, a mini boom/bust cycle that they are basing on past years trends, although I strongly feel this will not necessarily be the case this time and many people who are banking on it may find themselves potentially missing out due to exiting the market at the wrong time. Because many people believe it, the prices will likely boom in late 2018 and then start to bust in early 2019 BUT it will not continue after that as many expect. Basically the SEC decision on the ICE ETF will likely be delayed for as long as they can BUT will in the end WILL be approved, and this will likely take place in mid Feb of 2019 which if this does take place as I expect, will have a massive positive impact on the crypto prices around this time, in-turn breaking the Q1 bust cycle for that year causing it to go (drastically) up instead of down. For the past 6 months people that were HODLing their crypto have regretted their decision due to the market going down so much, and many of them will "learn" from this and will dump their holdings at the start of 2019 expecting to buy back in during the "expected" dip... but as I said I think those people are going to regret their decision when the exact opposite of what they expect to happen, happens and the price goes the opposite way (up) during this time much sooner then they will expect... AKA this time I think the people that HODL during this period of time are going to be the ones that win, so stay educated and HODL!
Added context: Don't get me wrong the crypto space will likely see a dip starting in Mid Jan 2019 (~23-24 days prior to Chinese New Year as it has for the last several years - https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@budz82/coincidence-multi-year-bitcoin-crash-pattern-like-clockwork-btc-has-crashed-25-35-for-4-years-in-a-row-23-24-days-before-chinese) BUT this time the dip will be much shorter than expect, and less then a month after the dip starts it will reverse DRASTICALLY at a time when most people won't be expecting it (mid Feb), so when the next "crypto winter" starts in early 2019, don't fall for the past trends like many people will and stay strong and HODL and I feel you won't be disappointed in your decision like many others that sell out will.
I think you are right about eventually prices will be determined more on fundamentals than purely speculation, but I disagree with how quickly that will happen.
I think we will have another 'everything go up' event when the bitcoin ETF gets approved, even though that should only impact bitcoin.
People will likely try to jump in front of the next coins to possibly get an ETF, coins like ether and a few others will likely see an influx of cash trying to front run an ETF.
That may bleed out into many other coins as well where everything goes up and it feeds on itself.
Agree that real world uses are the key and these are growing all the time. Steemit is a great example.
See my post re great alternatives: https://steemit.com/redpill/@apshamilton/list-of-alternatives-to-facebook-and-google-leaving-the-matrix
Also the terrible behaviour (privacy breaches, censorship etc) of big tech is making more and more people look at decentralised (crypto) alternatives.
Facebook & Google blocking crypto ads dramatically slowed the flow of new people into crypto and prevented projects getting users and funding. This will take time to recover from.
That's why JPB Liberty is enabling everyone in Crypto to claim damages against them by Joining the Class Action against the Crypto Ad Ban.
Its anonymous, no win no fee and you even got bonus tokens for signing up!
The question i'm asking myself is: after this heavy decline in valuation are cryptocurrency still overvalued? Hard to answer since it's a new asset class and normal fundamental analysis doesn't work like you would do it on stocks. How exactly do you value cryptocurrency?
That is a good question. You don't really have a way to value them fundamentally. It is all based on speculation that it may gain some form of adoption later on. Bitcoin could become an established store of value, or it could become a currency, or it could disappear completely. There are no earnings, cash flows, or dividends to base any kind of valuation on. Your guess is as good as the next guy's. :)
@jrcornel I would be interested in your opinion if you don't mind. (y)
Don't forget Appcoins which were $4.20 and now are $0.12.
That's where most of my income went. WOOHOO a competitor for the Google Play Store.
Let's watch thousands of dollars become hundreds of dollars and then become like $50. WOOHOO.
Appcoins. Everyone.
Applause please.
Yea that is rough. Luckily I didn't buy many things when they were running up besides bitcoin. Good investing advice I have always followed, no matter the market, is to buy things when no one is talking about them, when people hate them and don't want them. Then when people all start talking about them and wanting them, that is when you start unloading. Buy on the quiet and sell on the noise. Luckily we are near a quiet time again.
yea, this will be good for buy some steem on market and wait for the prise is up. but i`m affraid that price is not to up to the hight price again. haha
Give it some time. It may take a coupe years to see those highs again.
"Just because the bubble popped, doesn't mean it's game over!" - hard to say but partiali I agrre with you
Well I guess a partial agreement is better than no agreement at all. :)
Interesting graph from TradingView. This projects a minimum price per Bitcoin of $20k by the end of 2019, just 16 months away. Reassurance for all those doubters out there to HODL!
Yep, as long as that trend line holds, people are going to make a lot of money on bitcoin if they just hold on for another year or two.