BTC - November has historically been one of the best months for BitcoinsteemCreated with Sketch.

in bitcoin •  5 days ago  (edited)

November is the best month on average for Bitcoin gains

On Average, bitcoin's best returns have come during the month of November.

However, there needs to be a bit of context to that statement.

The "average" number is skewed quite a bit due to a massive move back in 2013, when bitcoin went up almost 10x during the month.

November was also when much of the famous 2017 rally took place.

So, those two massive rallies are playing a big part in those "average" monthly gains.

Either way though, the stats are the stats and November is the best performing month on average:

(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-rallies-hardest-in-november-so-why-are-the-charts-bearish)

Perhaps we should look at the median returns instead?

Since the average returns can be skewed by a massive rally or two, perhaps we should look at a different measure.

Median returns.

For calculation purposes, the median represents the middle number of a group of data points.

It will be the number the same distance from the lowest number and the highest number in the data set.

Using the median number makes sense when there are exceptionally high or low values in the data set as those have little influence on the outcome.

Much like what we see in November bitcoin returns.

So, how does that impact November?

Using the same set of data and instead calculating the median returns, we see that November may not be quit as bullish as it initially appeared.

Instead of being the best month for returns, it falls all the way to the 4th-6th range.

Tied with the returns often seen in May and June, though it's still a significantly positive month.

April, February, and October become the best performing months (respectively) when using median returns.

Either way though, November is still one of the better months historically for bitcoin gains.

We are off to a rough start so far, but I would not be surprised to see things turn around towards the end of the month.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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  ·  5 days ago (edited)

I think you wrote on this topic last november as well...2018.... and that one didnt went well .... hoppe this one gets better ... one out of two :)

I probably did, and yes last November was one of the worst Novembers on record.

If you notice, the two largest November returns were 4 years apart and after a halving event. That means November of 2021 is looking like a very good one, though possibly 2020 as well.

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