BTC - Bitcoin still right on que with previous Halving patterns
Bitcoin still looks very much like the previous halvings
Bitcoin is a little over 5 months away from it's next halving and things are still pretty much right on que with past patterns.
Even with the recent drop in prices, things still very much look like they did during the two previous halvings.
It's a little easier to see when we overlap the previous charts and halving events all on one chart.
Check it out:
(Source: https://twitter.com/3commas_io/status/1200719259804024833)
As you can see, we had a breakout from the downtrend in all 3 cases, followed by a pullback, and then a rally into the halving event.
Currently we have already seen the breakout from the downtrend and now the pullback.
If things are going to continue to repeat, we would expect to see prices start their run up into the halving very soon.
Both other halving events started their rallies no later than about 5-6 months prior, which is where we are right not.
Some more similarities...
To really get an idea of how similar these entire cycles have been, we need to see them listed side by side.
The similarities are really pretty shocking.
Check it out:
(Source: https://twitter.com/3commas_io/status/1200409922598580225)
We had a parabolic move, followed by an 80%+ drop, followed by sideways price action, finally followed by the build up into the next parabolic phase.
If this pattern keeps repeating, we are currently likely in the last dip before the bull market really starts to kick in.
Will this recent pattern continue to play out like the others?
I can't say for certain, but thus far we are still very much showing a similar pattern.
We do need the price to turn back up rather quickly though to mimic previous patterns as they didn't stay below that last moving average for long in either previous setup.
As of right now, I am operating under the assumption that we will end up repeating a very similar pattern to both previous cycles.
The only bad news is that many others out there likely are expecting that as well, and often in finance when everyone is expecting the same thing price wise, it usually doesn't happen.
We will see.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
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Thanks.
If many others were expecting it to happen, then the price would be higher already. The fact that the price is trending down means there's more selling than buying, which tells me that the majority if the money is betting on it not happening again. By your opposite reasoning, that should be a good thing :-)
Haha well said.
This is something I've never fully understood, how can "more selling than buying" be happening if for every trade there's 1 seller and 1 buyer?
You're right that obviously the amount of buying is always exactly equal to the amount of selling. What I mean is that there are more people selling than buying at a particular price which means that the price will drop until buyers are found.
Definitely ;)
Posted using Partiko iOS
Moving the price just has to do with whether buyers or sellers are hitting the ask or the bid mostly. As bids get taken out (which are buy orders) lower and lower bids pop up and those fearing they may miss getting their lot sold, lower the ask.
There is some truth in your words ;)
Posted using Partiko iOS
Our " just when it must happen" rally above 7400 last Wednesday gives a bit more optimism for a breakout before Christmas. A rally before Xmas would go a long ways towards renewing interest in BTC with retail investors, which frankly is understandably flagging.
Yep.
During Thanksgiving I asked a few family and friends about bitcoin and every single one of them was overwhelmingly negative about it and didn't want to buy any more. Retail was burned badly and haven't gotten excited about it again much at all, yet.
You know when you've been the bag holder since "buy now as this may be your last chance in like forever to by BTC under 9K (then under 10K and then under 11K....) last summer, its pretty hard to get motivated to get out the checkbook again even though now might be a good time to do just that.
Yep, I don't blame em, it's just the sentiment out there with most retail.
Yep, I don't blame em,
It's just the sentiment out
There with most retail.
- jrcornel
I'm a bot. I detect haiku.
could you specify the term Percent of halvening cycle low? I don't quite get it on the first spot.
That just means how much the price is up from that point. On the 100% represents the lowest point the price hit during it's bearish period before turning up.
Okay BTC has fallen out of bed, yet again, to the tune of down $500 on the fine Saturday leading me to suspect that the Wednesday rally might have been an over sold bounce. We will see.
We shall see indeed. None of the bounces since the 14k moon shot have held to this point. So, expecting one to do so will be expecting the trend to change. I am hopeful that it does, but the price action hasn't been great.
This patterns seems right on the money for what could happen next. Yet, there is still some unknowns stemming from China, which could potentially spell a more bearish market going into 2020.
But I'm still confident that we've reached a new bottom now, and it'll start bouncing upwards soon. The next resistance point to break and hold steady is $7,800, followed by $8,200. There was a strong push from the $7,800 resistance, so we'll have to see how it goes soon.
Not to mention Russia has now thrown their hat in the ring with some bitcoin FUD.
Oh, I haven't heard much about crypto in Russia, or perhaps I wasn't paying much attention. What's the news from the Eastern Front?
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