Bitcoin - What to expect if history repeats
History rarely if ever repeats exactly the same, but it often rhymes.
If you have followed my blog for any length of time you will know that I am a big fan of that thought process, especially as it relates to finance and markets.
Many have pointed out the stark similarities between the current bitcoin correction with what took place from 2013 to 2015.
During that time bitcoin peaked around $1,200 in December of 2013. From there, bitcoin declined by roughly 87% over the next 13 months to bottom out around $150 in January of 2015.
If bitcoin were to mimic that pattern exactly...
Bitcoin peaked in December of 2017 around $20,000. An 87% drop from there would take us to a price of roughly $2,500 and it would happen in January of 2019.
What do you think, will history repeat almost exactly or will it be more of a rhyme?
Stay informed my friends.
Follow me: @jrcornel
I believe you are correct, that we will see wicked low prices.
I thought we would have been through this in oct-nov. But no, it seems to have been pushed off.
The problem with the rhyming is that this next run up is not going to be the same.
I do not expect the dollar to survive the next bitcoin runup.
There is going to be so much financial chaos, that bitcoin will go no bid.
As in, no one will take dollars for it.
Which makes playing the market really hard, because each time you sell bitcoin for dollars might be the last time.
I would just recommend buying as much as you can, as often as you can, but with only money you can afford to lose.
Yea I don't see that happening that quickly. It could, I just don't see it. I see bitcoin making new highs end of 2019 or beginning of 2020.
The problem we are facing is that this is up against the first read ice-age winters.
This winter is going to be bad.
The next winter is going to be like hell frozen over bad.
It is a pretty hard edge.
But still, i think that it should take longer.
However, there are too many forces all coming together at the same time.
Further, i do not feel bitcoin will go no bid because the dollar completely collapses, its just the beginning of the end.
That's a very bold prediction. America is very good at outsourcing debt and hyper-inflation to other countries. I always imagined America as the last economy to crumble, not the first.
That being said I've stated in the past that we are going to see a quadrillion dollar market cap. Not because crypto is so valuable but because USD is so devalued.
Quadrillion dollar market cap, not a question of if, but a question of when.
Trillion dollar market cap?
Well, that depends on how much of the derivative market can squeeze into cryptos.
I hope the financial weapons of mass destruction get left out, and they could be, because of the regulations of moving those funds are heinous and there currently isn't a market mechanism that is approved to move those funds through.
I have the gutfeeling we will test the last ATH
When?
i mean the one from 2013 not from 2017 :D .. and i don't know when. the sooner the better
You mean we are going to test that high in 2013 to the downside this time?
If the 200 weekly MA breaks and we fall below 1800$ this would be very possible. At this time the bearish momentum is pretty strong.
Certainly, anything is possible in the short term. I would be pretty shocked if we broke $2k personally, but like you said, anything is possible at this point.
@jrcornel Then buy the dip and watch it fly! Great observation by the way, I gave you a follow and upvote, hope you can follow back as I post good content ;)
Yes, "buying the tip and watching it fly" is my plan indeed.
Could be a possibility :) .
Thanks man 😊
Hoping so.
Good prediction, most analysis seem to show a bottom between 1300 and 3000$. This is a wide range but for sure a great entry point for the next bull run. I could ether see a rapid drop to 2500$ with a sharp V-shape rebound in short time or we could see a longer bear market until mid 2019 with long stretched downward movement to around 1300$.
I would prefer the faster route so the low should be in Q1 2019.
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I would prefer faster as well. Nothing currently has given me the indication that a quick recovery is in store. It's just been mostly a slow bleed lower.
I could definitely see that happening.
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Exactly, probably not, a rhyme 97% :)
Works for me. As long it ends with us making new highs within the next 2 years I am ok with it.
I Have two amazing TA guys also calling 2500, you might be 100% correct. I also made that call a few days ago.
I hope they are wrong personally. I would rather we just go up from here. :)
I love and hate the similarities, for 2 reasons, I was setting new buy levels at lower prices, and at the same time a bull run is always welcome.
I hope none of your buys at $3k or lower get hit ;)
Me neither!!
It is like I said, if it hits I'm not gonna be too frustrated :D