A trader just made a million dollar bet that Bitcoin would be over $50k by the end of 2018

in #bitcoin4 years ago

A large trader (or traders) just plopped down a million dollars betting that Bitcoin would hit $50k sometime in 2018.

As was reported first by the Wall Street Journal, someone just bet that bitcoin will hit $50k at some point in 2018 in the futures markets.

Well it doesn't technically have to hit $50k for the bet to be profitable, but it does have to go quite a bit higher than current levels for the trade to be profitable.

Given that context, and the amount of money risked, it's a bet to take note of for sure.

Some specifics...

The bet was made on the trading platform LedgerX. Where 275 call options that expire Dec. 28, 2018 were bought.

The price per contract was roughly $3,600 per, which equates to just under a million dollars spent on the bet.

At the time of the bet, bitcoin was trading for roughly $16,700. Currently bitcoin is trading around $15,200.

Buyer's remorse?

Given that price decline, I assume the trader wishes he would have waited one more day to put this trade on. :)

However, if bitcoin is indeed heading north of $50k next year, buying at $16,700 or $15,200 doesn't make all that much difference in the grand scheme of things.

Therefore, it's way too early to be talking about buyer's remorse.

A little about LedgerX...

LedgerX is a New York based start up that was the first to officially launch Futures and Options products, back in October of this year.

The difference was that their products were exclusively available to institutional clients while the CBOE and CME newly launched options and futures contracts opened the doors for retail traders to enter the space.

Given that information, and the size of the bet, it is probably safe to assume that this bet was made with institutional money.

Stay informed my friends.



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Hello jrcornel
Thank you for your participation and this is a very good idea.
But what does the correction explain to the path of bitcoin and to what value stop when it falls?
I wish you luck and success.

Well, the year's not over yet.

It was probably made by Jamie Dimond or the Russian Mafia. Either way, it was probably a good bet.

Well that's a safe bet when bitcoin made 1000% the former year! I would prefer to see a 50k bet that bitcoin would reach 1 million by 2018! This is gambling!
But for me it's just a waste of money. When you have one million to spend, you buy bitcoins and steem!

Hello @adriatik
From my point of view, that bitcoin is considered a safe haven in the future
Despite changing their value from time to time.
I wish you luck and success.

thank you slimane, luck and success to you too!

I would rather buy Steem if I have One Million to spend...and convert it to Steem Power, that way I could help other Steemian people by upvoting them.

Hello @joshvel
Your dream is nice, worthy of appreciation and respect
All bloggers will be happy if your dream come true.
I wish you luck and success.

or be an evil whale and harass other people by flagging them! ahah!

Thank you for that humbling comment! Cheers! 🍸🍸

I am totally agree with you.

It's not a safe bet.
Quite contrary, if people are going to say its a safe bet when the thing itself cannot even fullfil it purpose, it is a sure sign for a bubble. It's a Maid's Hausse

Not a safe bet at all. With so much influence from banks, investors, and company owners about the livelihood of bitcoin and all alt coins in the news, I think the price will begin to fluctuate even more the way we see in the stock markets. At this very moment, Dec 22 11:00 am EST, BTC is at $13,200. That is a big drop from a few days ago like, Friday, Dec 16 at 11:00 pm EST at a high $19,390. I think people who had bitcoins were starting to get scared and cashed in on their winnings right away. Now that it is going down, many more new investors will buy in to bitcoin in hopes of cashing in on the rise of its price again. And so goes the cycle of buying low and selling high, the way the stock market is.

I think many more people will begin to see the potential of all altcoins as a way to make money buy investing in cryptocurrency similar to the way the stock market works.

I just saw an article about Goldman Sachs creating a trading platform for bitcoins. Soon many more banks and investing firms will follow suit.

Hello @yomaicoin
Do not let fear dominate you, as long as you intend to invest your money for the long term
As you know all currencies, bonds and stocks exhibition ups and downs of the value of
If we go back in the middle of 2016, when you return the value of bitcoin
How panic spread but then jumped and then back then jumped and then back and so forth
I wish you luck and success.

Thank you much for the kind words. Please check out my latest blog regarding Coinbase and how the value of BTC and its other hosted altcoins provides the opportunity to make $1000+ in seconds. Let me know what you think.

I wanted to and an update to my comment. Although there are high fees, you can make money from coinbase as well. Look at my most recent blog about this. Happened in the past few hours.


Hello @yomaicain
Your topics are very good, worth reading and commenting, I wish everyone read it.

Yeah I think a lot of people are taking their profits and getting ready for the next surge.

That's a very optimistic bet. I'm bullish on bitcoin due to LN, but it will take quite a bit of news to get to $50k. And with ETH, BCH and the other major alts gaining more market share, the climb to $50k might not be as easy.

I think it's possible.

I definitely think he made a good bet. Many Bitcoin proponents have been making similar price calls for 2018. Mike Novogratz called 40k by end of year 2018... We haven't even nearly hit mass market as far as Bitcoin is concerned... There's many more exchanges that are going to list Bitcoin and there's many more people who are going to learn about what Bitcoin is and why its such a great store of value. Personally, I think a $100k price tag by the end of 2018 isn't far off.

Is Bitcoin really able to hold mass market? Do not think so. The transactions fees are so high and it tends to go even higher. $50 for a Bitcoin transaction? The initial idea of low transactions fee, is long gone. I'm quite sure that when JPMorgan and all those finance Giants got into Bitcoin they knew that accepting Bitcoin in the traditional exchange would over burned the Bitcoin network. What's your view about an immediate solution for this issue?

No inmediate solution.
And it is a real issue.
However I think that at this point it's worth taking a moment to remember what we are talking about here. I know you guys in the crypto world are fast learners and tech savy, but we are at the cutting edge.
Satoshi gave us the key to unlocking a new technology that solved the issue of consensus in his paper and then proved it could be done through the initial implementation.
I work in thechnology and I can swear that scaling the initial design beyond a certain point allways requires a cualitative step.
Wether it will be a completely new kind of algorithm like the one Byteball uses or a second layer technology like the Lightning Network, I could't say.
What I can say is that WE BEST NOT PUSH IT.
Bitcoin has got this far surving hacker attacks, economic attacks, social attacks and legal attacks.
Satoshi saw a problem in society and he invented a technology to solve it.
Bitcoin's problem today is a technical problem and it will be a technology that solves it.
If you need to transact in crypto today, there are a ton of cryptocurrencies with 1/100 the load bitcoin handles that offer more speed and privacy and are cheaper and can use smart contracts and... well. I think you know them as I do.
I use Dash for now.

Sure , no immediate solution. Insightful replied. Thank you. Another issue that is unfortunate is the issue of getting in, I mean crossing the gate inside the cryptocurrencies ecosystem, where usually Bitcoin is the 'gate in' into crypto and the present moment high fees has a profound effect towards all others cryptos which does not accept credit or debit cards for purchase. <3

I get in through Litecoin and use it to move around between exchanges. Faster than BTC or BCH because it has 1/4 the block time.

I think the transaction fees will go down once the exchanges have the support to onboard new users quicker. I am waiting days verification right now. Also there are a lot of people who would be in it but they don't have the knowledge on how to sign up and buy. Once those two things get sorted out, which I believe will happen with time I think the prices will start to really go up and trend it up for a while.

Just Hodl It ! I think if everyone only had the amount they they were willing to lose . Then the price would go way up.

Heard wall street and banks are into btc, spurring demand and he may have good chance.

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50K, dont think so, only 2 weeks left, lots of new downward pressure, BCC, CBOE, CME...

Too bad he didn't done a short :)

Haha yes he should have bet for bitcoin to hit $10,000 because it looks very much like it is going there soon.

Come on people a 50k bitcoin would make crypto bigger than the gold market while there is only limited usage of blockchain today in the real world. If there would be mass creation of usefull applications 50k would be very stretch.

I really wonder if people jumping into crypto have any clue at all of what they are doing and at which level we are already...

Hello @sbrys
Do not worry about people, get used to it
You will be convinced bitcoin is a safe haven for saving.
I wish you luck and success.

Calling Bitcoin a safe have is quite strange no ? Value changes day by day. It can be a good investment on that I agree. It can also be a very bad one :)

For this reason, the investor should invest for a medium-term or long-range, To avoid mistakes during trading.

Gold is a barbarous relic with no real world use cases outside industrial applications.

No but in essence everything is useless :) I can understand how people attribute value to gold. It's the rarest metal on earth. Bitcoin can be copied overnight to serve the same purpose.

I really believe in blockchain tech I just dont understand the value attribution. I also never get any arguments about it. People just shout I will see the value after a while :)

I think he made a good bet but only time will tell

Wouldn't be surprised. But I'd rather make 10-20X on altcoins rather than 5X on Bitcoin.

Do you know what price he would be called at? I wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden crash way down, but it will probably recover pretty quickly.

Hashgraph makes me wonder about the future of all blockchain coins.

Thats quite a big bet considering the big boys CME and CBOE are here to tame it

that's my 2 pennies as well..

This has given me hope that the current decline is temporary!

Yes, I have been waiting for a while
When it was worth 8800 $

Same here 😄

Here I am worried about my $50 investsments in some altcoin... not worried really, but this gives me some context

LOL. It's all relative. If the guy who bet a million dollars is a multi-billionaire he's really taking very little risk. Likewise, if pineapple has $51 to his name and plops down $50 on a bet, he has crazy risk-tolerance.

A pineapple has nothing to his name but steem. ;-)

hehe good one :)

Lol I bet there’s a lot of us in the same boat. I wish I had the money to throw 1 mil on a bet

@jrcornel Only time will tell, but I like this wager far more than the McAfee wager...though they would be equally devastating.

Bitcoin to $50k by the end of next year after the price action we've seen this year seems to be a pretty good bet. Easy for me to say though, not having a mil riding on it. :-)

That is one big bet and as more people are learning about crypto currencies the price seems like its on upward trend.

If trend continue to go up as last months it would be easy bet.

50K is a big number, but anyway; it is possible. Let we focus on the sbd and steem, that is where the real increase should be.

This is a really big bet, But i wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin will end up over 50,000$ at the end of 2018. So i guess it's a normal bet by him.

I wish him and our wallets good luck !

As you mentioned that it may reach $50k in 2018, but the decreasing part started again. What about it?

I seriously doubt this, since btc fees have been screwing over all the ppl that use bitcoin for small transfers, thus leading to them moving on to different currencies. For btc to reach 50k$, the fees would need to decrease by a lot. Many people see ltc, bch, xrp as better alternatives to btc.

This is still a risky call but we will see lol

I think that Bitcoin could achieve this easy.

rumor has it that it might go up to 100k...

That sounds like a fairly conservative bet. If it grows... 90% less than it did this year, it would still hit 50k.

Nasip olursa bizde kazanmayı düşünüyoruz tebriklerr

Speculation on the speculators LOL

ha..lol. a friend of mine called me tonight freaking out at the drop in price. HODL!!!

smart guy lol. I would do the same if i had the money :)

I am agree with you ! I think the BTC can go at 50 000$ in 2018 :)
The BTC cash can go at 10 000$....

i think 50k is a little bit optimistic. 20k is very realistic imo, but time will tell... ;)

I think it's likely that Bitcoin will go even higher during 2018... Bitcoin was close to 20.000 USD already and it seems there will be more sharp ups and downs.

We have heard and knew a lot out this cryptocurrency. We dont even have any idea that who is behind this company and what aim it has. Still, we have made it as the largest cryptocurrency in the world. Bitcoin is most popular than the other cryptocurrencies. Last Monday, bitcoin was trading at more than $19,500. which was almost close to $20,000. But today, Bitcoin is trading at around $11,800. How strange isnt it?.

@jrcornel He could make more by investing that amount in BTC :) He is damn right! The price drop is just a normal correction before it skyrockets again!

Highest Regards

Saya sangat menyukai posting anda

I am almost sure that bitcoin the next year will even hit the 100k ☺

I tink is worth taking th risk buh i dont see bitcoin hiting 50k in such a short while i tink i will hit 50k buh not next year unless a very fast pump will happen if not i dont see it staying or even geting to 50k nxt yr

I wish have money to do it :p

Many thanks for the article...

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I sure hope so! That would be awesome!

Thats a pretty effing crazy bet right there I tell you hwhat

Nothing can stop bitcoin from achieving that feat .

Wait.. Wouldn't it be better to invest the Million in BTC if he truly believes that?

I don't think so, I<m still buying the dip thought. I either se it going to 20-25k or going under 10k because of the new year's blues.

I think that it could happen but don't listen to me as I have only been thinking about this for 3 days. I am very much a person that jumps in with both feet not knowing how deep the water is type of person sometimes.

That's a brave bet! I wonder with the worlds central banks lining up to try swat the crypto's with regulation (For our protection of course) and maybe the smart money is moving away from BTC and looking for the next BTC to back.

Wonderful explanation well done

Such news might just bring it up to that level, lol.

That would be the day !!

Demand for bitcoin increases everyday. By end of 2018 it will be above 50k. I think his bet is ok

Great post. It's nice to keep people informed of what's happening with BTC, especially positive pieces when the media immediately jumps on BTC going down at the moment.

Fingers crossed that he's right, I'm sure as hell hoping it get's there.

am sure btc may even surpass the 50k$ mark come end of 2018, as it surpassed al predictions for 2017 which mostly centered on 10k$ to 15k$. But this usual sharp increase and decline is really favoring some good traders with good profits, dont you think so?

I think bitcoin will hit around 9000 before zooms to 50k, but it will be back.

I think it was a good idea.. Time will tell

cryptocurrency will contribute to the distribution of wealth,if it gets that high then there is more buying power for everyone involved in the crypto world. we al reserve a good life!

We can end poverty, I would definitely donate more of my earnings.

I would expect it to go beyond 50k in the long run

Time will tell indeed. It looks exciting though.

I think crypto is going to have a huge 2018. The adoption of crypto is exploding and the implimentation in the rest of the global economy can only go up.

That's not the worst bet I've heard of. $50k is possible.

Not a far off bet. I'll say definitely above 30k.

what cryptos is everyone in right now? I recently diversified my wallet

I made a prediction of 10k by end of 2017 and 25k by june 2018. How about 150k by the end of 2018 and 750k by the end of 2019

Haejin : you are awesome, read multiple posts, your posts are insightful and definitely there is always something to learn from it.

That would be very interesting to see it reach that high. I'm not sure if it will or not. Guess we'll find out next year if it does.

Possibly... I would have said yes to that myself a couple of days ago. However, witnessing the insane miner fees that are going on right now that could put a damper on it hitting that amount. There is a point where you'll scare people off and they won't use bitcoin to purchase other cryptos or convert to fiat. They'll start moving over to litecoin, bitcoin cash, ethereum, dash, ripple, or anything else to avoid losing so much money to insanely high fees.

I do understand those fees are set by miners and it sets up a kind of priority queue system in the network based upon fee. Yet, at some point those fees become unbearable. I believe we are nearing that point. People will still use it, for large investments, but it'll lose its position as the medium of exchange for converting things. If that happens then it could be difficult for it to continue to go up. People need to be able to use it. I had bitpay wallet wanting over $138 to transfer from my wallet to my bitpay visa. How do I know? I had $138 and it told me I had insufficient funds.

I read blocktrades post talking about $50 being necessary at the moment and some places using $100 and it still not confirming in a timely manner.

This is a problem. The market can correct for high fees too... at some point those fees will become more than people can bear and they'll begin to use bitcoin less and less. How valuable will it be then?

i think it will happen

This is really a big risk.... But at the same time I feel it is possible for bitcoin to reach or surpass $50k

This bet can raise prices from the down side where they are now...

We are optimistic 2018 will be a good year for crypto again....something has to be done on high bitcoin fees and transaction times though..!!!

The fees are discouraging for a newbie like me from Uganda...

I am optimistic, the value of bitcoin will jump to 22000 $ at the end of the year.

Lets see BTC hit that $50K!

💙 Great post. Very good writing,i like this post 💙

         💛 Thanks for sharing  💛

OpenMusic Steemit Kiss.gif

No one can know about the future, even dear John McAfee who predicts that "the Bitcoin Price will be at $1,000,000 in 2020" (and he adds, if not, he will eat his own d.ck on National TV... An interesting appetite, right? It seems, either way, we will have some great fun!)

I've heard that Bitcoin is going into Bear Trend. I can't exactly remember the details but when the decline rate is %25, it is considered to be in bear trend. So in my opinion, fluctuations in Bitcoin will not let its value to be higher than 50k.

I think that is a good bet....Uncle Clif said $40k in August

a trader my god!

Let me also bet that It will be well below than 10k in 2018, i.e 3k.

With bitcoin imbedded now in the futures market you have to adjust your betting according to what wall street wants it to go. The gold and silver market has been manipulated for years by wall street and bitcoin has become just that. Look of whats' happened to the price of bitcoin ever since it placement in the futures market.

No doubt it is really a good bet he is gentle man

Hopefully soon we can all have a million dollars to bet. You got to know when to hold em'. Good luck everyone!

Tank you bro very good post

It is possible because Bitcoin has limited number of coins but on the other side it's getting risky day by day with increase to its price, i am partially agree with this bet.

Buy the dip suckers and keep screaming this time it's different ...

That's a threat

@jrcornel - 3600 call options are a lot and well if his bet turns out well, he's going to magnify his riches (surely he's a rich man already) many fold..... and I'm not betting against that.

today BTC crashed so heavily that there is intense bear market.

I hope to see some recovery soon.


Somebody knows what they are doing I guess. Most people wouldn't bet a million dollars on something they are not certain of, especially people with millions lying around for bets like this.

Free to win the bitcoin http://link.tl/1f0sj

I wrote a couple of days ago that Bitcoin would see difficult times going forward. I explain why in my post. Now that it has dropped by 50% since its high this person may need some Pepto.

Hey @jrcornel

It could happen but then it might fall just it did in December 2017. Everyone is saying it's pump and dump. How can we believe it's not?

These people can pump it again and then dump it when there are enough investments in it.

There are many people who have invested their hard earned money. This is not ethical way to earn money.

That's putting your money where your mouth is!

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