From Now On, Gold is Poor Man's Bitcoin!!!
It seemed like it was just yesterday that I was making a post about bitcoin reaching parity with gold (somewhere's in the $1,150 ~ 1,250 range, IIRC), now it's nearly twice gold's value ($1,258 per ounce * 2 = $2516, compared to $2,455 per bitcoin on Coinbase as I type this)!!
and one more !, for good measure :)
What to Do from Here? Sell the House to Buy Bitcoin? Sell the Bitcoin to Buy a House?
Um....
...well...
...dur...
I can't really give you a solid answer on this at the moment, because, as experienced as I am at using technical analysis (TA), most of my experience is with stocks that may double over the course of years, not with assets that double their value in less than 3 months and have people paying over $400 premiums to get their hands on some.
Bitcoin is looking a bit parabolic of late (just look at the zoomed out daily chart of Bitcoin and see for yourself -- chart #1), which is an absolute asinine condition to try to call tops and especially to try to short the market. With all the above in mind, I do have a few planned "take profit" prices in mind, based on TA, shown on chart #2, below.
Chart #1: Daily BTCUSD (Bitstamp)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EX8AOCah/
Chart #2: Daily BTCUSD (Bitstamp) -- Logical Prices to "Lock-In Profits"
https://www.tradingview.com/x/p7457OMj/
Usefulness of Fibonacci-extensions When Price is in "Uncharted Territory"
Because Bitcoin is trading in uncharted territory, above all price highs of the past (with the exception of the most recent high that just came in hours ago -- showing up as a small "wick" on the most current daily candle), there aren't too many reliable methods to predict future price pivot levels...that is, with the exception of Fibonacci-extensions and perhaps classical pivots (which I won't go into here).
Fibonacci-retracements are useful for determining possible pivot levels within a price correction to a major price swing. We find that prices often correct to between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement level of the last major price swing before pivoting into a new price swing (for this reason, both 38.2% and 61.8% are considered significant Fibonacci-retracement levels).
Fibonacci-extensions (fib extensions) are equally useful for capturing high probability pivots beyond the range of the price swing. As it turns out, price will put in at least a temporary pivot, but often strong reversal (correction), between the 138% and 161.8% levels of a price swing, making them logical profit targets. Doubles of price swings (200% moves) are also reliable as profit targets, for the same reason (high odds of becoming a price pivot).
Analyzing Profit Targets Using Fib Extensions
In chart# 2, I determined the two profit target area(s) by considering the fib extensions from the last major price swing. I calculated two fibs extensions using the same high, but two different lows. Any price levels that stand out as obvious pivot prices are valid to use as an "anchor" (as the 0% point of the fibs extension tool). I chose to consider them both just to get an idea for how much of a profit target range they produce on their significant fibs extension levels.
The theory is if the 161.8% level of the price swing using the higher lower doesn't "stop price advancement", then the 161.8% level using the lower low might, as both are valid and expected to act as resistance to price.
Just in case you can't decipher it from the above chart, the first target area (for Bitstamp) is $2,509 to 2,594 (might as well call it $2,500 to 2,600) and the second target area is $2,890 to 3,029 (or $2,900 to 3,000).
I Wouldn't Bet my House on it!
Like I said earlier, it's difficult to predict price pivots when price goes exponential. I would suggest only to use this type of TA to determine prices to take profits on a pre-determined percentage of your total BTC position, or all of it, if you're comfortable not holding any BTC (in which case, you have FAR less problems with FOMO than do I ;).
In my case, I might take like 5 ~ 10% off of the table at the first profit area and another 10 ~ 15% at the next.
So, Now that Bitcoin has Well Surpassed Gold in Value...
What's next?
Will we soon be buying house and property with a single bitcoin? Will we be purchasing fancy yachts and Hollywood hills mansions with fractions of a bitcoin?
What do you think?
In addition to the fib extensions, we have AB=CD harmonic pattern confluence with the top of the first target area (shown in the below chart):
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NBUzym0T/
You can see in the chart that price has nearly completed hitting the top of the first target area.
to be fair you did make some very good points in you post , but sad to say i have neither gold or bitcoins
Well, you can change that pretty quickly, ya know?
Although it's risky to make a big purchase of bitcoin right now (considering that it's went up so much, so fast, with little to no corrections), it's never unwise IMO to make a small initial investment into something that you believe has a high potential for good return.
If you want to get in, why not put a small percentage of your next paycheck into it. Say you make $500 on your paycheck. Take $25 (or 5% of your paycheck) and put it in bitcoin and then do it again on your next paycheck and again on the next, etc. That way if you happen to buy at the top, you will significantly bring down your cost-average on your next purchases, WITHOUT damaging yourself financially and, in time, by continuing with this low-risk strategy you will have built up a solid position and likely be in profit (I'm assuming that bitcoin is in a yearly bull-market when I say this, and I do believe that it is).
Oh Dear, the money is all gone do not ha e any to save i am a shamed to say i have alot of bills to pay
I'm sorry to hear that, man.
I still think that you have a fair amount of time to work on saving some money to put into bitcoin before it really blasts off. Also, just the other day, an author on Steemit made a post about a guy at a crypto-currency conference, I believe it was some type of self-made millionaire, suggesting to buy just a single bitcoin and waiting about 5 years to sell it in order to become a millionaire.
So you don't necessarily need to buy all that much in order to make a lot on it in the future. Even one tenth of a bitcoin could potentially make you hundreds of thousands of dollars!
We could be purchasing large tickets items with a single bitcoin. But only after a major correction.
...just my thoughts but we'll have to see.
Oh, I'm almost certain that we will see many major corrections (bubbles and then pops), before we'll be trading single bitcoins for those type of goodies, but it can still happen pretty quickly...like within the next two or three years (IMO).
If you are following my bitcoin daytrade anomaly it just posted the 17th straight $50/per coin per day gain in a row. I doubt today's buy at 2289.00 will be a winner but after yesterday's buy initially took me down $200+ within 30 minutes afterwards, and still posted a $50+...I'm thinking >>> "Anything's possible...I guess." :-) Do you actually have an opinion about how low bitcoin might fall on this dump?
Well, the whole move since the breakout of the ~$1,200.00 level has been quick, without many tests of price levels up until the high, with the exception of ~$1,600.00 -- it was a major resistance that was tested after the breakout.
So, odds are, worst case scenario is a test of the $1,200.00 -- I wouldn't call it likely, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens, either. More likely, the $1,600.00 level gets another test. Of course, the near 50% fib level test of the recent bull run, near $1,850 (coinbase) that already happened could be the lowest low before the next run up.
The best we can do with these predictions is to use statistics and, hopefully, a reliable memory (of past market patterns). I've always considered any market that can hold the 50% retracement level on corrections as a "strong market" (or "strong trend"), so my hope is that the bottom is in, but there's no way of knowing for sure until well into the future, unfortunately.
I'd tend to agree with you on your advice to just look in the toolbox and see which tools give you the best chance of being "correct" based on past experience. This IS human emotion here in the bitcoin world right now. These sheeple....I mean, people could do some crazy sheeyit. I just want to see them panic once. And my "potential" panic buy level is $1200 but I am also ass-ooming bitcoin 1500 is a "lock." The main experiment I am making is to find out if you really can gauge each turn and the severity of the trend change by watching the U.S exchange traded bitcoin tracker GBTC. And it definitely has at least a 20% chance of seeing $160.00 That would likely get us to bitcoin $1200. As I said, you may want to follow me and GBTC. If it turns out it IS actually a true tracking device you can trade and not have to worry about getting a trade thru with Coinbase when everyone is shitting their pants in panic in the real bitcoin market. :-)
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=gbtc&x=60&y=16&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9
My bitcoin daytrade anomaly generated it's first loss off of yesterday's buy. Only $4 loss tho. Today's buy already sold out with the $50 limit profit per coin. Banked gains after 19 days is now $896/coin. And I STILL have a "short and hold" call on bitcoin via my short on "bitcoin tracker" GBTC, which trades on teh U.S. exchanges. I'll keep trading the daytrade anomaly until it bankrupts itself. But I'm starting to think nobody is doing better than the results I am posting. Which is why I am sure nobody is even noticing my daytrade anomaly. :-)
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