My Response to @jamesbrown: An EW Counter's response to a Seasoned Chartist's Blog
The below was my response to @jamesbrown who is clearly a seasoned chartist. I added my two cents to his chart. He's blog address is:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@jamesbrown/the-effectiveness-of-pivot-trendlines-using-bitcoin-s-current-price-data
Hi Jaemsbrown (a great singer by the way!)
I agree with most of your support lines. For me, on a downtrend, I also use horizontal support lines. All dotted lines are my addition. I see three primary supports and for me these are more prominent than the slanted support lines. This is because your slant support lines miss much of the horizontal support regions or only briefly touch them. I've also drawn my Elliot Wave projections of a probable abc correction using these horizontal supports. The first possible stop for c is at around $3,175 as marked with (c?) and the second is $2,000 or so as marked with (c??). There could be a panic overshoot below the lowest dotted black support, but a brief one. I see this scenario as my probable and so primary count.
If there is a b wave bounce at the first dotted black support, this could result in a potential Head and Shoulders Top pattern as noted by LS (Left Shoulder) and Head (H) and Right Shoulder (RS) peaks. Note that your top most red line support would make a fine looking Neck Line to this H&S Top pattern.
On a longer term, here is the Elliot Wave count I use as base guide. We have either completed or close to completing Wave III and so a Wave IV sizable correction is due as shown in chart below. My abc correction is an attempt at defining the pathway for Wave IV. Once this is in, the Wave V to perhaps $7,000 or higher.
this is a very informative discussion/post @haejin / @jamesbrown, thank you for sharing this.
If your market shot earlier isn't bear, and this isn't, then I don't know what is.
![ScreenHunter_37 Sep. 05 01.06.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeXkdcJdKmQYrDDJQr5LS8ocGbZjusQUdDKLNdMWpnSz8/ScreenHunter_37%20Sep.%2005%2001.06.png)
So what's the last verdict?
A bull correction or the start of the bear period?
I am seeing 4175 dollars is that the red (b) in your chart?
Here is latest on BTC:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-update-wave-v-down
Please see my most recent updates.
Thanks for the shout, @haejin :)
I shot this a resteem to show my gratitude.
Thanks very much!
You're welcome :)
Good additional analysis. I'm very much a simple support and resistance chartist and trader so its great when people add in elliot wave analysis.