BITCOIN (BTC) Update: Perma Bear or Perma Bull, BOTH are WRONG!
One of the biggest and most painful lessons I've learned from my many failures is to NEVER be stuck in a set mindset with regards to the direction of the market. I LOST HUGE by being a PermaBear thinking the market will crash no matter what and also lost HUGE by being a PermaBull by thinking the market will go up no matter what. Another word for this syndrome is called "Herding Mentality". Now, after +15 years, I stay alert to NOT become Perma ANYTHING.
On that note, I'm observing and discerning a potential Head & Shoulders Bottom for Bitcoin. IF this is correct, then prices will have higher highs to go. The Left Shoulder (LS) is complete and the recent downdraft in price formed the Head (H). IF the Right Shoulder (RS) pattern completes and prices decisively bust above the Neck Line, then a Minimum Target of $5,083 can be expected.
How did I calculate the Minimum Target of $5,083? Here is the Math:
Price at highest point of Neck Line - Bottom of the Head (H) = $580
Add $580 to the the price at lowest point of Neck Line = $5,083
We've seen this kind of H&S Bottom bullish pattern; eg Monero, and prices almost always exceed the Minimum Target. Let's see if first the RS completes and if prices bust above the Neck Line.
For newbies who feel whip shawed, it would be best to sit out or use the hold onto the Old Turkey strategy (hold and never sell). I'm a trader & investor using TA so I use both hold never sell and trade strategies by proportioning out the assets. Did you know that you can timelock your Bitcoins for 10 or 20 or whatever years? That's a good way to apply the Old Turkey technique.
If this blog post has entertained or helped you to profit, please follow, upvote, resteem and/or consider buying me a beer:
BTC Wallet - 19gHMJc9wi9KkP47wokz8y4cFNgz1kAAUE
ETH Wallet - 0xf83641dbf1a53498eae6d0d568c969790da48a36
LTC Wallet - LU1mEw1LHvffoWf9VDEVdP7Day4jv6VLqu
EOS Wallet - 0xf83641dbf1a53498eae6d0d568c969790da48a36
Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.
Hi Haejin,
Thanks for the update. Are you saying that is before the next correction down to $2500 or so? Or have we had the correction and it will continue up from here to $7,000?
It's in Limbo right now. If this H&S matures with RS finishing and breaks out above Neck Line, then higher highs. Until then, let's see what happens. Nothing is certain.
Great job Haeijn.
I have a sense market is losing steem but i guess this generally occurs around key resistance levels. Feel $4500 is a key level.
lets see.
informatic post,i love it,upvoted
Do you think OMG will retrace to $6 still prior to new highs? or is it worth getting back in?
Seems to be bitcoin is losing steem at $4500 - could it be just retesting the support /resistance levels?
or is it worth entering the market again?
thanks
The only thing he says is there may (or may not) a reversed LS - H - RS being formed. If so, it will be confirmed the next couple of days. This pattern is a bullish signal.
If you choose to follow this scenario and decide to trade to it, the right shoulder has to form and prices need to go lower, could be a better entry point than now. You make you're own decision.
Thanks Leftrin. OK so prices have to retrace to about $4300 to form a RS, which could be an entry point. But we will only know if prices bounce again from $4300 or continue to retest $4000.
Are you a technical trader btw?
haha, i'm not a technical trader. still learning every day
Please consider using the two TA books I recommended in past blogs.
so the last shoulder isn't there yet? it kinda looks like a shoulder to me, Whats the distinguising factor that we can know for sure that the shoulder is formed or complete?
Thanks for your help!
Here is OMG update:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/omg-update-wave-5-is-still-due
thanks a lot
do not samapai fail to start by making the wrong decision. this is good information as a guide
I congratulate everyone who sold their coins on @haejin's recommendation and at the same time not spending any harsh words now that he says he may have got it wrong.
Very mature. Please let's continue this way with all the respect and love for each other.
Mistakes will be made but there is a lot of money to be made as well. Do not loose patience and always get multiple opinions.
God speed everyone.
Well said @devrim! It's a learning curve for everybody, and losses will always be replaced with profits.
What @haejin is doing for us is amazing, massive respect to him and everyone else who follows him.
Thank you very much I did. :) Hopefully the price will go down soon and I can recover what I lost.
whats timelocking mean?
You effectively lock your coins away until a certain date, or for a certain period. For example I could time lock 5btc for a year and although I would retain ownership, I could not move them until the time had lapsed.
lol how did you get 13 votes already! do you have a big follwoing? thats crazy.
Thank you for explaining that, is there a place to do that at? I see on coinbase they have something called the Bitcoin Vault. Never knew what it was.... OR is it just something people do on their own? like a cold wallet and never touch something until a dedicated time?
It is probably done using some smart contract. In other words, your coins are inaccessible (can not be used/transferred) given a certain requirement. (For example after a particular date.)
I haven't researched how to do it though. It would be nice if their is a wallet where the feature is ready built in with user friendly interface and clear easy to follow instructions.
Iam not aware of any wallet offering this. I agree that smart contracts can offer this but I haven't used them.
I prefer to have control over my coins in case I really need to sell (need to pay for medical treatment etc) but not make it so straightforward that I sell on every piece of news. My coins are stored on a Trezor that is locked away. I have a watch only wallet on my computer so I can keep track of them.
Me too ;-).
You can lock you bitcoins into a wallet and can't be spent no matter what untilt he specified time. Takes python coding knowledge.
Hey @haejin, when you labelled the waves in one of your latest BTC posts (https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-update-elliott-waves-labeled) you projected something like this. Are we not at point b (red) at this moment?
Very astute. That is why I'm not bullish yet. If the H&S Bottom on Bitcoin plays out, then I'll be bullish. But yes, the current up could be the B wave up.
Let's see what the prices do.