The starting of the cryptocurrency price bubble

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

The price of Bitcoin and altcoins are starting to look, in my opinion, like a bubble. Look at the charts below:

Global Charts   CryptoCurrency Market Capitalizations.png

Bitcoin and especially the altcoins are going parabolic. Usually thats a sign we are in a bubble. That doesn't mean it can't rise further and that its going to collapse tomorrow, but in my opinion we are closer to a top then to a bottom. Of course no one knows the exact top and bottom.

Bubbles (financial manias) unfold in several stages, an observation which backed up by 500 years of economic history. Each mania is obviously different, but there are always similarities; simplistically four phases can be identified:

  1. Stealth: Those who understand the new fundamentals realize an emerging opportunity for substantial future appreciation, but at a risk since their assumptions are so far unproven. So the "smart money" gets invested in the asset class, often quietly and cautiously. This category of investor tends to have better access to information and a higher capacity to understand the wider economic context that would trigger asset inflation. Prices gradually increase, but often completely unnoticed by the general population. Larger and larger positions are established as the smart money start to better understand that the fundamentals are well grounded and that this asset class is likely to experience significant future valuations.

  2. Awareness: Many investors start to notice the momentum, bringing additional money in and pushing prices higher. There can be a short-lived sell off phase taking place as a few investors cash in their first profits (there could also be several sell off phases, each beginning at an higher level than the previous one). The smart money takes this opportunity to reinforce its existing positions. In the later stages of this phase the media starts to notice with positive reports about how this new boom benefits the economy by "creating" wealth; those getting in becoming increasingly "unsophisticated".

  3. Mania: Everyone is noticing that prices are going up and the public jumps in for this "investment opportunity of a lifetime". The expectations about future appreciation becomes a "no brainer" and a linear inference mentality sets in; future prices are an extrapolation of past price appreciation, which of course goes against any conventional wisdom. This phase is however not about logic, but a lot about psychology. Floods of money come in creating even greater expectations and pushing prices to stratospheric levels. The higher the price, the more investments pour in. Fairly unnoticed from the general public caught in this new frenzy, the smart money as well as many institutional investors are quietly pulling out and selling their assets. Unbiased opinion about the fundamentals becomes increasingly difficult to find as many players are heavily invested and have every interest to keep asset inflation going. The market gradually becomes more exuberant as "paper fortunes" are made from regular "investors" and greed sets in. Everyone tries to jump in and new intrants have absolutely no understanding of the market, its dynamic and fundamentals. Prices are simply bid up with all financial means possible, particularly leverage and debt. If the bubble is linked with lax sources of credit, then it will endure far longer than many observers would expect, therefore discrediting many rational assessments that the situation is unsustainable. At some point statements are made about entirely new fundamentals implying that a "permanent high plateau" has been reached to justify future price increases; the bubble is about to collapse.

  4. Blow-off: A moment of epiphany (a trigger) arrives and everyone roughly at the same time realize that the situation has changed. Confidence and expectations encounter a paradigm shift, not without a phase of denial where many try to reassure the public that this is just a temporary setback. Some are fooled, but not for long. Many try to unload their assets, but takers are few; everyone is expecting further price declines. The house of cards collapses under its own weight and late comers (commonly the general public) are left holding depreciating assets while the smart money has pulled out a long time ago. Prices plummet at a rate much faster than the one that inflated the bubble. Many over-leveraged asset owners go bankrupt, triggering additional waves of sales. There is even the possibility that the valuation undershoots the long term mean, implying a significant buying opportunity. However, the general public at this point considers this sector as "the worst possible investment one can make". This is the time when the smart money starts acquiring assets at low prices.
    (https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/stages_in_a_bubble.html)

At the end of phase 2 the media is reporting positives stories, just like we are seeing now:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/20/investing/mike-novogratz-bets-big-on-bitcoin-ether-blockchain/
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/08/bitcoin-price-hits-record-high-and-4000-is-ahead-investor-says.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/12/bitcoin-price-rise-blockbuster-price-in-two-charts.html

Previous bubbles:

Bitcoin was in a bubble in 2011, is rose from a couple of dollars to a high of $31.91
May-2011.png

In april 2013 it rose from $20 tot more than $260
March-2013.png

And in november 2013 it rose from about $100 to more than $1100
Nov-2013-Stamp.png

From every bottom til every top the price rose about 1100-1500%. The bottom from 2015 was approx. $170, we are now at $2000 so I think we are due for a correction. I'm not posting this to scare people, I'm very bullish on Bitcoin and especially on Ethereum in the long run, the potential is enormous! I'm just trying to warm people not to buy high en sell low.
In the current bull market the best time to buy was in the first half of 2015, what were the financial news media saying back then?
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/19/tech/social-media/bitcoin-twitter-chat/index.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/14/bitcoin-falls-below-200-making-some-investors-worry-about-downward-spiral.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/08/bitcoins-rough-start-to-the-year-may-get-worse.html

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

― Warren Buffett

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I think that the World Economy is in a big bubble and the Cryptocurrency World too.

I think we're still early in phase 2. The public still has no idea of the existence of crypto markets and many real investors still think it's some form of penny stock and are just about to take things seriously, don't you think?

I agree that Bitcoin is far from mainstream adoption but Bitcoin is in 'mini bubbles' sometimes where the price spikes in a short time, then it crashes and is stable on a higher level. I think we are now approaching this short term top. After the correction its likely that the price will rise again as more and more people get to know Bitcoin.

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