Bitcoin neural network analysis week 37/2018: Complete Chaos

in bitcoin •  2 months ago

Analysis of past week:
Last week the network did predict nice and stable gains. This could not have been further from the truth. The beginning of the week went as predicted by the network, until we saw a major crash of the price. The network strategy was suboptimal.

I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as

Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 13165.94$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 6300.85$ (down 13.4%)
Network strategy: 6749.11$ (down 13.4%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$

The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market, but the neural network has gained an advantage over btc.

download (32).png
Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.

After the major crash last week the network sees more instability in the future. For the coming week it predicts a quick recovery to 6383.80$ with strong price fluctuations in the next month.

The network prefers bitcoin over fiat this week, so my strategy will be holding btc.

This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!

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