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RE: 2/10/2018 The Market View and Trading Outlook
Lol, I missed your analysis ! As always you are spot on, friend ! Can you make a post ( maybe you have one, but I missed it) about how you exactly make your analysis, I get the basics with the hourly charts, but I have a problem understanding when and which tool do you use ! from what I see you are very successful with your analysis - great ratio ! A pleasure to read your analysis !
Only 8100 low so far, I may be wrong which is o.k... 12% drop is still a win for me.. Still likely to go lower though I think.. possibly a fake rally.. How do I do it? Experience mostly.. I love the MACD, and MA's.. RSI is good too.. much of it is just knowing the frames and how one relates to the other. If you can figure out the 77 and watch how price plays with it in different frames, or you may be at the 4 hour 21 which is also the 77 in a different frame, so you have 2 MA's of resistance or support.. It's hard to explain other than to say that each time frame depends upon another, each is an ingredient in the entire recipe and each carries weight.. I use those and then I use overall long range pattern recognition as well to test my theories against the bigger picture and see if what I am thinking based on the time frames agrees with my objective view of the larger market.. Good on LTC at 148 but I will likely sell at 155 or so.. as I am not feeling it.. Will wait and see how it plays out.. I'm a short range kinda guy...
There is also momentum that I think about, just because something goes up or down does not mean that is its terminal direction in the shorter term. In many cases it goes up, to burn out the buyers and gain momentum for the down to make a new low.. same for going down to burn the sellers and make a new high..
interesting, I am trying to understand your methodology, but it's kind of hard when I don't see your thinking process :)
Ok, I don't think of it as a continuous unbroken process. I think of it as periods of time. Like innings in baseball, or quarters in football.. Now each time frame the 1,3,5,15,30,1h,2h,4h,6h,12h, 1d,3d,1W are all part of it but to a greater degree.. That is first.. think of each frame as an inning or a part of the greater sum.. what happens in the 15 min will affect the 30 minute, what happens in the 1 hour will affect the 2 hour and so on.. Trends begin and end from the bottom up, not from the top down.. The 1 minute has to go bad, then the 3,5,15,30.. etc. to affect the larger frames, but the smaller frames are influenced by the bigger frames.. So Lets say we are selling or red on the 12 hour MACD, well.. we know that even a buying period on the 1 hour is going to be minor or muted as the period of greater influence is selling..
Lets assume each time frame has a weight.. the larger the frame the bigger the weight.. so lets say the 4 hour is selling, but the 15 minute goes green, but where in the four hour selling is it going green? the beginning, the end.. if it is at the end or when the histogram is narrowing it may be the very beginning of a change of trend. If it happens at the beginning, the negative influence of the bigger frame (4H) will act upon it and stop it from doing anything really good.
Now you have to take the MA's into account as they are the most basic but most dependable support and resistance lines.. the 77, the 21, etc.. You have to look at MACD, all the frames and then look at MA's in all the frames and compare their probable destination with current MA position.
So lets say the MACD histogram for the 4 hour is red, and price is under the 15 min 77 period moving average. We know the 77 is resistance, we know the larger frame is negative, so more than likely the combination of the two will mute gains bring a rejection at the 15 min 77 and downwards price. That will then affect the 30, the 1 hour, etc.. and you end up with one more hollow red bar in the 4 hour..
If you can understand the relationship between the frames, how they act, and influence each other then you can begin to see how the price moves relative to those frames and the MA's within each one. The MACD is a good indicator of "what is the trend" in a frame, then you have to understand how that trend in that frame relates to the other frames and the moving average support and resistance lines..
Okay, I will "demo" a bit with your approach. Will address question that arise ! Thanks for the detailed explanation.
Low overnight was $7851 I made the call in the a.m. at $8900..
Not bad to call a 12% drop within 2% of my lowest low and .07% of my highest low 13 hours ahead of time..As I said I don't need weeks or months, I just need now.. .. Not sure how I do what I do.. maybe intuition as you said, but it seems to work..
Very interesting. I am wondering where it will close today ? :)
More important is I made 8% more BTC buying NBT at 000116 and selling at 000126
Isn't NBT designed to be stable and so on :D llike USDT
It is and it seems to work quite well... :) If BTC is going down move BTC to NBT, sell when BTC starts going back up..
Yess, that's what I also do but I do it with USDT. Although I haven't done in a while, as I don't want to trade this market at the moment :D But you keep it up, yo ! You are doing very well :)
We need to turn up today or we are going very low again.. Not sure who won our "what will be the low bet" The 12 is tapering off and we are having trouble with the 30 min 77..
You refer to 77 often. What is it?
the 77 is the 77 period Moving Average.. Everyone has their own likes and dislikes.. I have my MA's set at 7,21,and 77..
Chrystal clear. Thank you. I use 50 DMA and 9 day EMA.
I run 3 SIMPLE moving averages.. 7,21,77...