RE: Bitcoin Price Prediction based upon a 2000 Year Old Technique and some Common Sense
I think the rules have changed. Things are different now that Bitcoin hit 19k. Corporations are patenting blockchain tech and blockchain awareness is at an all time high. I'm going to be very surprised if Bitcoin goes under $4000 ever again.
I think it's unfair to compare blockchain to the internet because the problems blockchain tech can solve are much more important than what the internet did. Because cryptocurrency is the foundation of blockchain it can fund itself and send development spiraling out of control. At the same time the blockchain fully depends on the internet so it is a very strange dynamic indeed.
I definitely appreciated this post. I'm a firm believer in cyclical prediction models. Maybe I just don't want to believe that Bitcoin could go that low because I have stake in the space.
A perfect analogy doesn't teach anything.
The problem with these methods is numbers don't come attached and any one of a million things can change the trajectory. Given sameness, the expected path is like late 2013. Given differences, modifications can result. It could flash crash for 3 minutes like ETH did last June when it went to 10 cents, then return back to normal levels.
The efficient causes aren't linked to astrological events. You can hope to use the astrology as a sort of pattern analysis to detect sameness. It works sometimes due to the fact that life is non-random. It fails when emergent properties come forth.