Bitcoin Speculation: Moore's Law
Some people are calling this latest pump in the market Chinese New Years manipulation. Some are calling it a Litecoin victory for Mimblewimble privacy/scaling technology. Some are saying it means an ETF will be approved soon and this is pre-purchase insider trading.
I'm calling it business as usual.
The news is more of a catalyst to get price action to where it should be, rather than actually dictating the price. Last year we saw many downward trends attributed to this or that news. Well, I've got news for you: Bitcoin was going to crash 80%+ no matter what the news was.
We had no Mt. Gox legendary fuck-up incidents, yet Bitcoin crashed just as hard for just as long all the same. These 4 year cycles are simply a natural part of Bitcoin evolution and they revolve around the Halvening event.
Buy the rumor, Sell the news
If this is a victory for Mimblewimble as it appears to be (because Litecoin went up the most at 30%) no one is pointing out the most obviously amazing thing about this scenario:
Bitcoin doesn't control the market; the entire market is connected. If Litecoin is the reason for this pump that means the Litecoin increased that value of everything, not Bitcoin. Everyone just assumes that bitcoin controls the market, and this is obviously false. Every coin has sway, even if Bitcoin has more.
This is one big reason why I don't understand why so many people are waiting for these assets to decouple from one another like it's a bad thing. This entire space is connected; severing the connections is not a good thing. (If such an occurrence is even possible.)
Moore's Law
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 | $12800 |
I continue to push the theory of Moore's Law onto the cryptosphere. Bitcoin will continue to double each year.
As we can see, Bitcoin often hits its target at the end of the year. If we extrapolate Bitcoin to be valued at $6400 by the end of the year the price should increase $266.67 per month on average.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3467 | $3733 | $4000 | $4267 | $4533 | $4800 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5067 | $5333 | $5600 | $5867 | $6133 | $6400 |
If this turns out to be accurate the value of Bitcoin is pretty much exactly where it should be.
Using this model, we expect another bull run at the end of the four year cycle (at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022). The base value of Bitcoin in 2021 will be $25600. However, as we've seen in 2013/2014 and 2017/2018 the price spikes up x10-x13 higher than the base value. This would put a bubble at around $250,000-$350,000 for a single bitcoin, with a crash back down to the 2022 baseline at 56K.
Kinda makes me think back to the days of 56K modems and how people thought we'd never have faster internet. Many experts have spoken on the topic of crypto today and compare it to this time in the Internet's history. We have quite a long way to go.
Make no mistake, when Bitcoin is ascending higher than a quarter million per coin crypto mania will be in full effect.
$1,000,000 Bitcoin! $2,000,000 Bitcoin! It's happening!
Then it will crash 85% just like it always does.
If the doubling effect of Moore's Law applies to Bitcoin, every ten years Bitcoin should go about x1024.
It's important to note here that I believe it takes at least 4-5 years for a project to find to even find its baseline to begin with. This makes new projects like Steem very unpredictable and volatile as they attempt to stabilize at a fair-market value.
Ethereum?
Ethereum has hit $100 four times this year. Perhaps Ethereum is starting out where Bitcoin left off 5 years ago. However, When you consider smart contracts and ERC-20 protocol Ethereum might multiply even faster than x2. If a coin like Maker is doubling every year, those MakerDAO contracts are locking Ethereum away for as long as users want to create Dai stable-coin (forever?).
Second layer tokens can add a multiplier an top of the x2 that the main chain experiences. Dai isn't even a popular stable-coin right now, but already 2% of all Ethereum is locked in MakerDAO contracts Coins like Maker significantly reduce the active liquidity of Ethereum and push it in a bullish direction. With Coinbase adding Dai coin to their arsenal just recently we should see some very interesting developments within the next few years.
Tax season?
Just like we experienced another Chinese New Years movement will we also experience another bump in April from tax season? Probably.
It can't go parabolic forever. Once it starts hitting certain valuation, other coins such as litecoin will become more popular as they'll be more affordable to the average user.
If people just hodl bitcoin and don't actually use it then I think it will lose out in long run in popularity and the price will come back down. Do I think bitcoin price will rise, yes. Do I think we'll ever see multiple million dollar bitcoin, no.
Don't get me wrong I'd be ecstatic if that happened, but there will eventually come a point where it's not worth it and no one is willing to pay that much.
This is unit bias.
The idea that we have to buy a full coin is a grand fallacy.
Using the same logic I could tell you that one dollar buys 27000 Satoshi.
What an amazing deal amirite?
In addition, this isn't parabolic growth, this is exponential growth, which is much much stronger than parabolic.
parabolic: x^2
exponential: 2^x
Moore's Law has been going strong for 50 years now, so the idea that Bitcoin can't keep doubling every year because it just can't isn't really founded on anything except the gut feeling that exponential growth doesn't really make sense to us.
If Bitcoin had the same market cap of gold (7.8 trillion) each coin would be worth $446,000. In the opinion of many, Bitcoin's value far exceeds gold. This is smart money we are talking about. The sky is the limit. Power over money and the corruption it breeds is about to come to an end, and the value of that is priceless.
Thanks for the clarification. Has any other Stock or Market followed this growth before? Not to say Bitcoin couldn't be the first to do so.
Quite right. No other asset has even come close.
However, at the same time, no other asset can scale.
A stock can't scale because the people in charge of the corporation will sell out.
Fiat can't scale for the same reason.
Centralized power structures become top heavy and topple over as they continue to exploit the ones who lack the power to defend themselves. Ironically those same people being exploited are the ones keeping the system afloat. We've created these power structures that basically cannibalize themselves by design.
The Bitcoin of today will be nothing like the Bitcoin whose value is a million dollars. This is programmable, open-source, smart-money. It will evolve over time. However, you can buy it today, throw it into cold storage for ten years, and spend it a decade later with all the new upgrades, features, and infrastructure.
Imagine being able to buy a computer that develops itself. It makes it's own CPU, GPU, RAM, and storage space better while just sitting on your desk. That is what Bitcoin is: Money that will develop itself for free while you hold it.
Bueno he aprendido mucho en el debate y veo que sabes del temas y la tecnología en la que se basa bitcoin y eso es bueno porque aportan algo muy valioso que es la información. Pero todo esto sucederá mucho mas rápido si nosotros como individuos trabajamos en nuestro entorno y dar a conocer a otras personas y que se empiecen a interesar e ingresen al esta revolución tecnológica.
This is some more good insight. The more traditional laws and trends apply to crypto, the closer we are getting to mainstream. This etf business is sick tired old news and I wish it would just happen already.
Eat speculation though for sure and I am looking forward to seeing it come true.
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I actually think the tax season may be a negative catalyst as there may be some that took large gains at the beginning of 2018 when the market was peaking. Hopefully, they held on to the gain to lay taxes as it may lead to them needing to sell if not ready for the tax bill.
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Good point, but I think there is a better chance that the fear of that happening suppresses the price until the moment has passed. So many people lost money last year. The ones who lost the most have the most to gain by claiming those losses. We have to assume that some of this money will flow back into the market. Whether liquidity will be significantly modified in one direction or another is a different story.
I am pretty sure that you are correct in your forecasts...
however, i do not believe that the dollar is going to stay solid enough to support those numbers.
I feel the dollar is going to go all Zimbabwe on us before the next cycle completes. 90% this cycle, 99.9% next cycle.
So, my thoughts are on... leave the sinking ship with whatever you can.
Wouldn't the Fed need to print like 800 trillion dollars for a 90% devaluation to happen?
I feel they already printed it.
It is just been kept out of circulation by "market forces" (FED cough).
If any of the derivatives market moves, shuffles, defaults, or anything, that money will swamp everything.
With Well? Fargone pretending to have an ATM outage... what are they practising for? To see how fast people panic?
I feel that a loss in dollar value is soon.
But, i would prefer bitcoin to rise nice and orderly, and the floor not falling out.
Hm.
And speaking of someone with experience of server farms...
Or maybe Well-'s far Gone has all their ATMs running off of one 486 in a closet... and someone tripped over its power cord while on a smoke break...
Gotta love how vague that is.
What? What routine maintenance? wtf?
Something created smoke and that's why people can't withdraw money? And this is the only explanation given across multiple news sources? Mind blown.
"I stuck a screwdriver into the server, and it let out some magic smoke. So, i thought, neat! Lets try the next."
... that, or they're lying to us.
Never heard of Moores Law. But this seems accurate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
The cost of said circuit is also cut in half at the same time, leading to a doubling effect every year instead of every two years.
Pretty cool stuff.
I like the rational yet positive outlook on the markets. Moore’s law seems to be the way it’s going, however it’s impossible to predict, always easier to look at historical trends. I don’t disagree with it, but it’s a great time to be looking at this all.
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My predictions are often wrong, but I like to throw stuff like this out there and see what sticks.
I'm going to wait for the confirmation of the reversal in the market which is when we breakout of the massive trendline which is the one that goes through all the tops since february and pushes us down, and a retest of it, which is what triggers a bull run... better to lose the bottom by 30-40% then to buy in and get dumped on...
We never had such a massive Bullrun with so much influx of money, so we will probably have an even more deeper bear market with a 85-95% retracement... But in the end, the best thing to do is, save the money, wait for a breakout of the TL with a retest of it and buy in... I wouldn't advice anyone to buy now
Don't like to do this, but if you need images and a further explanation of what I'm talking about, I did a post with images and the trendline I'm talking about, but I think I explained it pretty well overhere.
BTW, that is one of the most basic things in TA, it was the first thing I learned when I started trading, that's why I was away from STEEM for 6 months, learning some TA skills :)
I would say there is very little risk in waiting.
Actually, we have 0 signs of a reversal, no trendlines broken, no higher highs, no volume, the mini pumps are mainly dead cat bounces in the fib scale, the only thing that is keeping us at these levels is the 200 weekly MA, which is normally what supports us and is normally the end of the bear market, but, we never had such a massive bull market has this one, this MA normally breaks after huge bubbles,the last 2 time it broke was in the dotcom bubble and the house market bubble, and BTC just went through one of the biggest bubbles it ever had...
If you look at all the other bear markets, they normally go to the previous ATH, that would mean we would actually retrace to 1100$ on this one, I'm not expecting us to go there, but if we did, or even to 1800$ which is another strong support, that would be a huge difference in the long term... in the investment department
Let's do the math, if you invest 1k at 3200 and btc goes to 100k, you gain 31k...Now if you invest 1k at 1.8k, you gain 55k, an extra 20k, I'm just saying, it's better to wait for the reversal of the market, which is pretty easy to spot, no need to invest now without any clear signs of a reversal...
If you invest on the way down you will have an average price above of the one if you would have if you invested with everything on the confirmation of the reversal, really... if you don't want to read the post, let me just put an image here
Look at the image, that is the 2014 BTC bubble, the box is the price that I would have bought in if I used this method, which is 40% of the bottom, not very much tbh...
The only reason why I'm trying to push this is because we don't have that much good TA on STEEM, and most Steemians know next to 0 on when to invest, I'm trying to teach people when the best time to buy in is, maybe we have already hit bottom on this bear market, we don't know yet, we would only know when we do that breakout and confirmation of the trendline, but at least, if some of the Steemians learn that, they can be better prepared for the next bubble!!
And, I know u are an investor, just like me, so, if you learn this you might be able to make the right decision in the next bubble, which is the buy on the Trendline breakout method!
Sorry for the huge response :P Just wanted to teach you that since I know u are a smartguy and might learn and apply that knowledge in the future :D
I have a light interest in technical analysis, but I have an even stronger interest in exiting fiat and proving to the cryptoverse that I'm here for the long haul.
Regardless, this is good information to know and obviously relevant to the OP.
hey buddy! :)
do you think we already bottomed?
Still not enough data to know with 100% certainty if we have or not, we have the 21MA above us which has been making us dump at every pump since January 2018, we haven't broken any trendlines, we have the 1W stoch RSI at an ATH which is like loading a pistol with a dump bullet, last time we were this high in the stoch RSI was in January 2018 before the bubble bursted, the only thing hodling us up atm is the 200MA weekly, which I don't think will hodl. I'm expecting us to see 1800$ very soon (3 weeks max), we still have 1 more pump to close the CME future gap at 3950 and the daily stoch RSI is at the bottom which is like loading a mini pump bullet.
Don't know if I explained it well enough, the most probable scenario atm is for a pump to 3950 and a massive dump to 2.2k-1800$... If you want to know how to spot a reversal come by my blog and read this one, and this one, the first one is the simplest way there is to spot a reversal in the market to bull market, and it is what big investors with millions of dollars use to know when to buy in.
Im honestly not really into technical analysis, neither do I really care about it.
I think it's just a very little part. That's because Bitcoin is the first of its kind. There was nothing even close before and therefore I dont think you can apply stock market analysis to it.
But what do I know, Im only 20 years old and wait for months now for a good entry point.
I will still look at your posts :)
I really liked your articles. Got a new follower ;)
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Thanks! I always try to provide the best content for the blockchain... the words we write and the posts we make are going to be coded in a blockchain for all eternity or at least until the blockchain dies, so it must of the best quality I can make :)
Interesting, very interesting
Even more interesting:
If this doubling mechanic turns out to be fairly accurate Bitcoin will no longer be able to be manipulated. Everyone will come to consensus that Bitcoin should double every year, and everyone will know when to buy and when to sell.
Ironically enough this act in itself would probably bubble the price of Bitcoin due to the added value of being stable and consistent.
Let's see what happens. I sure hope you are right! 😂
It's going to take a while. I think we are in for a long and boring gradual climb to $6400. There might be a nice pump and dump in the summer time. That's been known to happen. May, June, and July are often interesting months to look forward to.
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