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Bottom? Where are you?!
I've been in cryptos for 1 year and 1 month! Yeah, I joined in January 2018 at the All-time high of bitcoin... I was really dumb back then, I didn't know what a bubble was, what crypto was, I didn't know anything! I only knew Bitcoin went crazy and pumped like crazy and I wanted in!
Now I know a lot more stuff! I know the ins and outs of blockchain tech, I know how they are used, I know the different projects in the space, I know the different scams, and I know how to spot the reversal with high accuracy!
Yeah, I paused my steemian life for 6 months to learn Technical Analysis, I still have a lot to learn, but I can also teach you guys some of what I've already learned!
How to spot the reversal with pinpoint accuracy!
The most basic rule of any good trader is waiting for confirmation and enter a trade! Every action has an opposite reaction if the price pumps it's probably going to dump a little after before the next pump starts. This gives us a zigzag upwards, or downwards... so, in this case, we would enter the trade on the pullback! Confirmation...
Now, where does all of this come to spot the reversal? It isn't' that hard, we just need to have confirmation that we are now pumping and that the bottom is in!
We use trendlines to know that! Look at this chart:
We put a trendline from the top of the first pump through all the pumps, once the price goes past that point we have a big confirmation that the bear market is over, if the price touches the trendline after and it pumps after it's an even bigger confirmation... so in this case we would buy in the blue box!
If you want to play it even safer, there is something else you can do, many trendlines, each time the prices passes one the probability that the bear market is over is higher. It's not really orthodox, and any trader would call me crazy, but I like to use it in really large time-frames. Like this:
I just showed you the graph for 2014, let me show all the times you would have bought the reversal on BTC using this method!
And now what everyone wants to know! The bottom of this last bubble... the trendline I'm using is
Drum roll please...
This one!
This trendline has been pushing us down since the first pump back in February 2018, it's the trendline that made us drop from the 6k support all the way to 3k! And it is the trendline that we must push through to start the next bull run!
At the moment the trendline is going through the price of 5.4k, and it reaches the current price in August! So... there is a small possibility that the next bull market starts in August... In my opinion, it won't...
We have way too many traders removing thousands of dollars from the market and none of the blockchains has a constant influx of money entering the market... What this means is that there is more money going out of the market then it is going in... But this is another topic for another post...
In my opinion, we will get pushed further down to the next support (blue boxes) around 1.8k, and we will stay at sub 3k prices until early-mid-2020, that's when the next bull run starts, with the next All time high somewhere in 2023-2025, in my opinion of course!
Something like this:
That yellow Trendline is what people were calling "the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders" some weeks back, in my opinion, we won't get the volume to breakout... and it will reject us past the support of 3k...
But of course... use the Trendline method to spot the reversal in the market, if we stay at 3k-4k and we move past that trendline you should deploy all your money! That's what I'm going to do!
I shouldn't have bought any cryptos in 2018-2019, I should have waited for a reversal in the market, at the moment I'm saving money in my bank account to deploy when I see a reversal in the market using this method!
It's this simple! Just use trading view and draw the trendline... save the money and deploy when you get the reversal!
And remember: "This is not financial or investment advice, if you follow any of these tips you do at your own risk and I'm not to blame for any losses"
Images Free Source - 1, 2,3,4,5,6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and Tradingview snapshots!
Question of the day:
I should probably change these templates since I'm not studying to be a Vet anymore...
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Estou a tirar notas! ;)
Tira, fazes bem! Farto de ver pessoas a tentar adivinhar o bottom e a falharem horrivelmente, quando na verdade é simples de ver o reversal e apanhas as moedas todas muito baratas!
Thanks por leres
I'm joining your club. No more "buy until the bottom for me." :-P
PS: Don't let Duarte read this. He'll get mad because we all want lower prices!
Waiting for confirmation is the base of any good trader... waiting for confirmation of a reversal makes u a lot of money, any trader that tells u to invest on the way down is trying to dump on u and, in the end, will results in a lot of lost money for you!
Buy on the confirmation of reversal, which is when the price touches the trendline after it has broken out of it! If you check the 2014 image you can clearly see it broke out and then went back to touch it again to confirm we were in a bull market, when it did, people bought in and the price pumped by 40% very quickly!
My problem with your downward trendline on BTC is that I cannot reproduce it on BTC/Fiat. Why using an index?
Good article.
Are you using the log scale? I can do it pretty much on every chart... Sometimes you have to ignore some outliers because on different exchanges there are different liquidities etc... I normally use bitstamp, poloniex, xbtusd, or the index... But the trendline is that, of that I'm 100% sure...
Thanks, I got something better. Let's wait and see what the coming months will be made of!
Like I said, i sometimes do many trendlines, the more trendlines the price breaks out of, the more bullish I get
Got it, thanks.