BTC - Not out of the wood (yet) - Episode 2

in #bitcoin3 years ago (edited)

Hey everyone, it's been a long time.

Today I felt like posting my long term analysis for Bitcoin. Let's make it short and effective.

btcusd140818.png

Taking a look at the log scale, we could draw a channel wherein current BTC price is moving. While the upper line was hit twice, a parallel line can be drawn connecting past BTC lows.

Hence, what's interesting on the long term is that:

  1. The current bear market, per TA, is far from done. On February 10th 2018, I had posted an article stating that we were aiming for a $4000-4400 range. This is still valid, and I would even go to as low as $3000 a final price target.

  2. Starting Q1 2019, we should enter a new bull market. Real whales are waiting between $3000-4000, and BTC price could very well double up back to $6000 within one week when the trend reversal happens. Til then, it's not done.

  3. Talking about Q1 2019, and on the fundamental side, SEC has the right to delay VanEck-SolidX's ETF's approval til February 19th 2019. There's no coincidence as to what event may lead to a price surge then if such ETF was to be approved. But I won't be debating this point here.

  4. On this weekly chart, we'll wisely wait for the RSI to first enter the bearish zone (below 40), and then watch it carefully make its way down to around 20, and maybe even go a bit oversold (that'd be a luxury) before things get turned upside down, for the best.

Now, as far as pinpointing any target is concerned, the scope is large... Still, between $71,000 and $261,000 seems fair enough. But, because a bull run often leads to FOMO, and so on, we may speculate that it'll peak up to $500k before another deep retracement. But now this is only speculation, and I have no idea what the real target will be as it depends on way too many fundamental aspects.

Anyway, enjoy the ride :)

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Thanks for reading me, I'd appreciate an upvote if you enjoyed this technical analysis. Also Don't forget to FOLLOW me & Resteem !!!

Remember this article is not intended to guarantee any gain nor encourage you to invest in any way! This is just for your information.

You could even consider offering me a beer! ;)

ETH 0x7f6A03620BCaDaFCb76E0B0E253F4bF50b6f8A24
BTC 1JPARFZfvrdj9VgNxcvq8D9G3dc5X113Wd
BCH 13R98Ggzuq5NZx5AnguMkNXs3qmBMhPqvg

Have a good one!

[EDIT = fixed minor orthographic mistakes]

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There's another (less) long-term channel that may come into play (as potential support) very soon, as well (blue lines with purple dashes highlighting the center line).

Alt Text

Potential pivot opportunity is in order...

That shared, I agree that the odds aren't low that it tests the major channel projection low in that $3,000 ~ 4,500 price range. What is "favorable"? I wish I knew, but, with the ETF approval seeming more and more likely NOT to happen this year, I tend to lean towards your view.

Agreed. Eventually, I believe that a substancial event or news anywhere in the world regarding institutional investments (Korea, Japan, Middle-East, etc...) may arrive to justify an early bull run. And retail investors, mostly in the US, who tend to be blindly focused on this ETF approval, won't understand what's going on, causing massive fomo.

By the way, let's not forget that the NYSE is now gearing up to get in the party... This whole ETF thing may just be a detail for the next bull run, after all, not a catalyst.

Good points @demonklyd.

It seems that I fall into the "retail investors, mostly in the US, who tend to be blindly focused on this ETF approval" category, but I'm not selling my long-term investment either way, so it comes out to the same for me regardless.

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