Depends on how much money you have at risk. If you have a small amount at risk and can afford to lose it all the HODLing for "real potential" could be a fine strategy.

But if you have a larger amount at risk and are using a portion of your "investment funds" for crypto, then in order to HODL under all scenarios you would need closer to "high certainty on potential"; which is a more stringent standard than real potential.