Near-Term Focus can Blind us to Long-Term Potentials

in bitcoin •  11 months ago 

Let me share the bitcoin video I saw in 2015 which first got me interested in cryptocurrency.


The moral of this video is simple, by looking at the crash, or the day to day activity, we can blind ourselves to the ultimate outcomes in price.

One of the keys to good investing is watching the market at all times, even though, as an investor, you may issue only a few trades a year.

We should not let the market lull us into viewing crypto any differently. If 20k BTC was the cryptocurrency market top, then basically, there is almost no reason to own any cryptocurrency. We should abandon crypto as a failed endeavor... it was a fad.

A few other projects might rally in-spite of BTC going nowhere, but most other cryptos are ultimately funded by an increase in BTC price. If the market decided that BTC was never coming back, then there would be the ending phase capitulation for BTC, where the stalwarts all dump who were long-term investors willing to buy during the declines.

I do not believe this is what we are seeing in the market. Yes, 300 billion market cap for BTC was nuts. The question is not whether it is nuts, though, it is whether the economy can support that price going forward.

Maybe I will get valuation bearish at 1 trillion BTC, but if I do, it is just kind of an arbitrary value. The dot-com bubble was 6+ trillion USD, and if we adjust that for inflation, it would be at least 12 trillion in today's money. The crypto-bubble should in the end, beat the dot-com bubble because this bubble enables everyone with internet worldwide to participate. Anyone can launch an ICO so long as their country does not ban it... even then, it could still be done illegally. Crypto has opened the financial borders of society like nothing has before, and focusing on the day to day activity can cause us to miss this fact.

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What are you saying.....buy the mthfcckk dip right now!
Are you buying crypto....or watching from the sidelines right now....

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I am basically long EOS, long Steem (have a reduced position, but I still own quite a bit), own a little NAV, own XST only because I knew it might do good on a hype cycle so I bought like $100 worth in early 2017 and then it was stuck on poloniex for 5+ months, and they finally released it. It was worth a ton more when they released it, so that's something. Own a little PEPE Cash for the same reason as XST (was a $20 investment initially)... I probably own a few other things, a few of ETH and Dash. I'd own a lot more stuff if I hadn't been hacked in late 2017, but it is what happened.

That said, I have like maybe 50% of my holdings in USDT waiting to buy. So I am not a bullish buyer at this point, just certain things like EOS, I am unwilling to sell because I don't know when the big rallies for it might come. Whether EOS really rallies depends on how the community develops, but I really like what I am seeing. My friend Rick @unlockrs is heading up EOS New York and I know he will do a good job along with the rest of the EOS guys.

There is one investment I am looking to buy in the next month or so (depending what happens), and it is a 10x gainer within an 18 month time frame. I may only release it through paid content with @timm though, we'll see.

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I will be interested in your paid content. Is there a way to direct message or email you ?

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Hey, thanks for the interest. For now, if you wanted to contact me, you could do so on the @timm discord, here is your invite: https://discord.gg/cmDqjR

Hope to do private correspondence through their systems when paid content goes live, but they're still in the development stages.

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"There is one investment I am looking to buy in the next month or so (depending what happens), and it is a 10x gainer within an 18 month time frame. I may only release it through paid content with @timm though, we'll see."
Mmmmm that sounds interesting.
I guess you will tell us more about that in future posts....

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It's not ready yet to buy.

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This all said, on a very long-term time frame, a person may want to start putting in buy levels during the next major dip. I mean, if someone is 0% invested, and they want to put a large sum to work, on the dips they should probably start going long to some degree. 20% invested, maybe at first until we're sure a bottom has hit. Just depends on their personal strategy.

I would just not conclude that I am seeing a bull market yet. It's a "wait and see" market, but people can still invest into those situations, especially with very long-term horizons.

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What are your thoughts on NAV? there anonymous dapps progress in competition with the others.

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It's a research intensive thing, and I don't own a ton anymore. I do believe this, it is worth speculating that there is a decent chance during the next crypto bull market, that Anon Dapps get their day in the sun. When / If that happens, I expect all cryptos in that category to temporarily trade in a fad bullish run. Sort of like privacy coins would go up on certain days and some might rally 200% or something. I expect something like this for Anon Dapps as a category, but I also believe that NAV is not likely to be the top player in Anon Dapps because they dragged their feet a little too long, I think. It's fine they set a 2018 deadline for it, but other projects were rumored to have operational Anon Dapps early this year.

So investing in that area, I would suggest, listing out all projects with Anon Dapps or going for Anon Dapps. Then if you believe that an Anon Dapp hype cycle is going to happen, buy a basket selection of those projects, not just one.

This is not advice, just my way of thinking about how to do this sort of trade in 2018. The Anon Dapp hype cycle may not happen soon. I would favor the EOS hype cycle first, where we get 20 EOS knock-offs launched. That said, maybe the market goes for the Anon Dapp one instead? Maybe something else.

Long term is always beneficial if one has invested in good things or coins in crypto with a long term vision and the team behind it thanks for sharing this message

Thanks for the article. Its been a long time you shared an update on EOS. With all the negative news (blocking accounts, RAM Pricing ) around do you see it going forward again ? I believe in the project however after going live I have not seen any major differentiation it posses compared to other new projects as million transactions is very far away by that time ethereum will have its sharding releases.
Secondly, it was speculated that 1000+ dapps will be running on EOS once its launched, however apart from everipedia I dont see any good project yet.

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Whoever speculated 1000+ dapps would be on EOS was selling pipe dreams. Why anyone believed it was their own shortcomming in foresight.

Ethereum sharding is like the LN, I think it's not scaling. They can call that scaling, but if you can scale on-chain I prefer that.

The EOS model for scaling is the same type of model that forward thinking Dash is aiming toward. Dash did not begin with a model that fascilitated scaling, but they're moving in that direction. It's the future.

Is scaling properly enough to de-throne Ethereum? Maybe, maybe not.

Does EOS need to beat Ethereum? No. It just needs its own economy for what it can successfully provide. Expecting tons of things from EOS 1 month after it going live is asking a bit much.

I am probably giving EOS until late 2019, before I would be willing to decide it's not viable or not good.

Is it worth buying now? Maybe not. My EOS projection is still only $100 if it does really great, so that's only a 10x. But anyway, app developers don't even yet understand how EOS could be utilized successfully to do things never done before. That's what is required with EOS, that people realize, "Oh, it can accomplish what Ethereum never will."

Ethereum sharding may give it more functionality in the long-run, and it keeps them from being abysmal, but tier 2 solutions are basically long-term bad.

As for 1 mil transactions per second, it can certainly do it on paper, but its not needed at the moment. It's easy to scale if the baseline premise of the network is that you have less than 100 block producers all using backbone servers in major cities worldwide. Scaling is not really an issue. Right now, I think they're focused on getting the different locations live and operational so that consistency for the network is established. Once the network is established, if people actually legitimately used it to do things and it actually arrived at the point it needed to scale, then it would be able to do so by design. My guess is at start-up they're relying on network nodes that may not be ideal in all situations.

Awesome thanks. Love that vid.

Beautifully said. Crypto is a game best played long-term.