in bitcoin •  2 years ago 

History has a story to tell, and it does repeat itself in different forms all through time. I'm not here to tell you that cryptos are doomed or that Bitcoin (BTC) will die, but I'm almost certain that this weekend could have a very very interesting effect on the cryptocurrency market.

Future markets for BTC are going live on December 10 (CBOE) and December 18 (CME). The reason why this is impactful is that it allows big money to easily enter the market and influence the direction of prices. There are two possible explanations for the current rise in BTC prices...

One, the political situation in Korea & Japan in which the governments are making it very difficult to move money outside of their countries. This, of course, is causing all of the currencies to sell at a premium on the Asian exchanges (Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, etc.), thus driving up the average price represented on cryptocurrency price summary websites. So the price you see on the summary page on, that's not necessarily an accurate price for that currency if you buy on Western exchanges like Bittrex, CoinExchange, Binance, Coinbase, GDAX, etc. Most will argue that this arbitrage opportunity is the primary reason for the recent bull run on BTC. I don't think that's the case though... This arbitrage opportunity has been available all summer long.

The second reason why currencies might be inflated is due to the fact that large investors, institutional investors, and investment banks, are buying up Bitcoin in preparation for when the futures markets go live on Sunday. Many large players have expressed interest in clearing BTC futures (JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs), and other sizeable players (TD Ameritrade and Ally Invest), have already agreed to clear BTC futures for their investors. This is significant because the big talk from insiders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is that the Wall Street whales, your rich old white guys, are going to short Bitcoin because none of them believe in its potential or viability. Since the investment banks are heavily investing in Bitcoin it will be easy for them to continue to buy up coins, drive the price higher, and collect on rich old white guys BTC shorts...


This exact thing happened in 1980 with the Hunt Brothers and Silver Thursday. The only difference is that the Hunt Brothers were in the banks' situation. As soon as the banks fail to cover their BTC margin calls, the markets will likely crash along with all of the other currencies...

Keep in mind that this "bubble" popping will be a good thing if it happens and it likely won't happen immediately on Sunday, but it very well could soon-after. If the bubble bursts it will help weed out the bad coins/tokens and help the good ones rise even stronger. This is a very similar idea to that of the Dot Com Bubble. The markets tanked, but the viable, successful internet companies didn't struggle for long. They soon rose from the ashes stronger and bigger than before.

Thanks for taking the time to read this bit. I hope you enjoyed the read. If you curious about my background, I studied Economics and Finance in my undergrad and just fininshed up my masters degree recently. I'm not an expert by any means, but I'm always up for a good discussion in the comments section! Hoping to post more content very soon!

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Never heard of silver thursday.
Thanks a lot!

My upvotes!

I think Bitcoin will continue up, its not a bubble... There are better coins then Bitcoin: Steem, EOS and Bitshares are way better. Bitconnect is interesting to lock your Bitcoin profits in.

If so you say, EOS, Steem and Bitshares are better than BTC. Then why would BTC needs to go up?

(Just a genuine question, trying to understand your viewpoint)

Bitconnect is the definition of a Ponzi scheme. They flaunt lavish lifestyles and massive ROIs on minimal risk/effort. They're appealing directly to peoples' emotions and targeting those who are new and potentially not as informed about the industry.

I am by no means an expert and will happily eat these words if this turns out not to be the case. What exactly are they selling? What problem are they trying to solve? What exactly is their technology/solution? You won't easily find this information on their site and when you do it is rather vague.

Compare that to groups likes Golem, Ethereum, and Steemit who are all working toward solving difficult problems. They are VERY transparent about their intentions, openly share and promote their technology, and acknowledge the criticism and potential drawbacks. I won't deny there is no money at the top of their pyramid, but when Bitconnect goes down it is going to take a lot of people and momentum with it.

Since I'm on it - just be wary of anyone selling a "forced matrix" compensation plan - (cough cough ) Project Ethereum, which is not associated with the Ethereum developers.

In classic Musk fashion: "imo..."

so glad you mentioned Bitconnect here... I think one thing many overlook about Bitconnect is that the volatility is what makes the coin and loans valuable.

Good read, upvoted :)

So what coins do you consider will survive the carnage? Bitcoing has been dominating the headlines, but one could argue from a technical standpoint that there are better options. Then again, we always have the Betamax vs VHS history to show that technical superiority sometimes does not meen jack shit.

It's hard to say to be honest... The problem with Bitcoin is that it's slow and not all that practical. Other coins like Ethereum and NEO or platform coins with more application use through their dApp's. So logic from a technology standpoint would point you in these directions, but the markets aren't always logical in the short run... It's hard to say for sure, but I feel like the leading crypto could change in the next 2-3 years.

Yes this is very likely and something we've all been waiting for!

XRP finally announced escrow today!
Escrow is finally in play:

Please also support my top cryptocurrencies for December :

just look at various coins vs btc charts and you'll see some patterns.

I'm expecting VERTCOIN to rise against BTC in the coming days. It was at around 90k a couple of days ago and it's dropped to 40k. And block rewards are halving in a couple of days which should put downward pressure on supply.

What live markets are you in reference to in your post?

I'm new here on steemit and to the whole cryptocurrencies world, after reading and learning more about the block-chain technology, i got really interested in learning more and found steemit during my research. Thanks for sharing this information, i find it very valuable on my block-chain/crypto learning journey, much appreciated.

Absolutely! If you take 1 thing away from the crypto market, just remember to HODL!

... and buy more ha ha


You really help show the bubble popping can still be beneficial!

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not lol... Yes, I probably could have gone into more detail.

Interesting thoughts. I’ll be interested to see if this money that is causing the run right now is from hedge funds and institutional investors, if it is, I wouldn’t be surprised to see these exact buyers be selling the Bitcoin futures to hedge there exposure. The interesting thing about this futures market is the long side is really only going to come from speculators unlike other futures markets that have real product buyers looking to lock in buy prices.

YES! I'm interested to see how it plays out too!

If anyone has a counter argument I'd love to hear your ideas and opinions too!

  ·  2 years ago (edited)

Bitcoin is not as easily manipulated as other financial instruments.

Reason being, is that most traditional financial instruments are easily scaled, at a whim. Companies can issue as many shares as they want, banks can issue as much cash as they want, and a lot of it is based on nothing. People borrow lots of money and use stocks as security, and when the margins are called, the banks repossess the stocks and sell.

They can't do that with bitcoin.

If someone wants to pump and dump, they can buy enough bitcoin to push the price up, and sell enough to push the price back down to more or less where it started.

the will almost certainly be a retrace very soon. could be this weekend. But we have not reached a peak.

Yeah, that's not a bad argument. My only concern is the large stake holders who got in early.

in what sense?

large players that put $1m+ into BTC early on have a combined 10-15% share of the market. There are lots of groups of these traders online who work together to buy/sell to control prices

Very nice post, thank you for sharing!