Bitcoin gives back the $10 000 mark ... Time to get long?
Bitcoin finished Thursday down more than 10%, giving back the key $10000 level for the first time and continuing lower today in Asian trade.
The market is really struggling to catch a break at the moment; with scams, FUD and fuckery littering the headlines at every noisy turn. On the bright side, if you are bullish longer term, longs are really starting to make sense from a risk:reward perspective and I am keeping an eye out for a valid entry/considering a fade. I was planning on pulling the trigger earlier today, but by the time I'd finished the tasks at hand, the buy signal I was looking at on the 4 hour chart had been invalidated and she was on her way down again.
Pair is currently testing below rising trend-line support around 8800, with sellers targeting the Falling Wedge bottom at 8400:
28 day volume peaked in late December and has been declining ever since, so though this move has been long and painful, the end may well be in sight. Margin lending rates at Bitfinex have been incredibly depressed over the past few weeks, with USD yielding barely a third of the historical average. There was a slight pick up in those markets this morning, and that bolsters the case for an impending bottom - this is one of the few truly forward looking indicators around - Bitcoin can't rally without people going long and people can't go long without borrowing US Dollars.
Though I'd like to buy into the wedge floor, I'm prepared to act before then on a valid signal and seriously considering pre-empting any reversal with a lightly levered fade - we've all seen how fast this beast moves when it does finally catch a bid. I'm usually not one for picking bottoms, but long term I'm extremely bullish Bitcoin and crypto; and the declining volume, pick up in lending markets and Falling Wedge formation are all very interesting.
I'm off to muse on that for a little while and will update this post with my entry if/when I pull the trigger. If you want to read more about trading and what's required of a successful trader, I'd highly recommend following my friend and colleague @forexbrokr and checking out his latest blog post on process and high probability set ups.
Like people are saying - it's just not for the faint of heart. If someone can't grasp the notion that you need to "buy low sell high" then I don't know how to help them.
Well said. Like you, I'm very bullish in the long term and I'm still waiting for the right signal to pour in my fiat. However, this dip is very mind shattering for those people who impulsively invested in because of the recent hype. I bet there are a lot of people put in their money without even researching about cryptos. And these are also the people who have lost faith and is losing faith because of this "crash". They are now scrambling to sell thinking that they will lose more if they hold on. Though I pity them, I guess one man's loss is another man's fortune.
That makes a lot of sense. The media always reports on bitcoin so sensationally. When it goes up in value they all talk about the millionaires, and when it goes down they act like we are all doomed. Not sure if it's because the media doesn't want altcoins to do well or if it is because they genuinely just don't know what the heck they are doing. I do also pity the people who only hear these stories and go in guns blazing, only to panic sell. On the other hand, it does reward those of us who do research.
Exactly! My theory in this is that the mass media spreads FUD because they are controlled by the government and central bank. As you know, most (if not all) cryptocurrencies are decentralized. Meaning, no one control these coins. And what do banks and government want? That is to control everything. Creating a system which cannot be controlled by the banks or governments and is FREE create conflicts with these organizations. Banks and government want a piece of commission from everything (in the form of taxes and fees). That is one reason why I think that media spreads FUD. FUD confuses the people so that they stop using cryptocurrencies and return to using banks so that they keep a portion of your wealth. Another reason I am thinking of is that this is for the benefit of the few. What I mean by that is those in higher position in banks and governments also invest in cryptocurrencies. What I think they do is they spread FUD so that the value of cryptos will fall, then they buy. After some time, the value will go up, and then they sell. The cycle will repeat and just use your imagination how much money they make by doing this scheme. So I wish people don't immediately believe in FUD, do their own research, make their stand firm, and eventually they will earn what is due to them.
8200 as I speak...if it closes today under 9000 the bull run is over...
Bitcoin will bounce back
It's apparently, a good time to buy
Upvoted ☝ Have a great day!
Gut wrenching but again cryptos weren’t made for the faint of heart. I see a season of weeding. The garden will look better this spring.
We need muppets - who would buy our SBD without muppets? Who would sell me Bitcoin at the lows if there were no muppets?
Is this the bitter end for Bitcoin? For cryptos? Well, no, probably not. Get your head screwed on right and you’ll see that (for better or worse) many coins have seen unprecedented growth in the last six months to a year, even with Bitcoin’s price halved from holiday highs closer to $20,000.
(: Follow : @thecryptobetter :)
This is another thing that gets me about the people who just freak out and sell. It's like...you know bitcoin just had absurd growth recently right? It's not at all strange for the market to correct. It would be strange if bitcoin continued exponential growth!
very good your prospre...congratulationcongratulation. i'am new in steemit do you help me...?... i want to be work with you
I feel like I'm going to keep falling, because there's so much bad news lately.
Very trouble~
Take a look at @forexbrokr's latest blog post - good traders filter out the noise and focus on process. If I go long here, my risk is approximately $5000 against the 78.6, my potential reward against the highs is $11 000 :)
ok~thank you
Hey @timozhang, happy to help if you want to chat. See you around!
I really enjoy talking. ha ha
It definitely looks like the crash could last longer but then again there is no way to tell. There could be a huge turn around any week now.