The McAfee Scenario: Foresight is 20/20
Please take what follows with a large portion of salt; this post is strictly for entertainment purposes only.
Last year, John McAfee predicted that a Bitcoin would hit $500,000 by the year 2020. He then later updated that prediction to $1,000,000 by the year 2020. In his scenario, a Satoshi (100 Millionth of a Bitcoin, or 0.00000001 BTC) would be worth $0.01 US Dollars. That in itself sounds like a nice round number. McAfee claims he will eat his own d**k if he's wrong, which makes the prediction all the more bizarre.
During a crypto bull run, people say a lot of crazy things and predict things that either end up being wishful thinking, or are proven to be suspiciously correct.
A market doesn't care about what you want to happen, or what you expect to happen; markets are driven by fear and greed. Greed is accompanied by excitement and euphoria, while fear is accompanied by depression and hopelessness. When prices are consistently going in a particular direction, you're going to have a hard time convincing people that the direction will eventually reverse. Human nature wants to "save what's left before it's all gone" when times are bad, and to make riskier and riskier choices when times are good. That's just how we're hardwired to behave, and it's the double-edged sword that causes someone to lose their shirt in a speculative market.
At present, crypto investors are cautiously fearful and uncertain. If you cannot provide them some kind of story to explain why Bitcoin should suddenly reverse it's path and start rising in price, then you're going to be dismissed as just another schmuck with a dead-end opinion.
Luckily for me I'm not presenting my own prediction. No one knows what Bitcoin will be valued at by 2020. For the McAfee Scenario, I'm going to present the most likely sequence (in my opinion) of where the price of Bitcoin will need to sit in order to actually hit $1,000,000 by 2020.
You've maybe seen this chart before; it's a logarithmically-scaled chart of Bitcoin, going back to mid 2011. The colored boxes represent the direction of the price in relation to the diagonal orange support line. Blue is neutral, Green is up, and Red is down in relation to that line.
A repeat of history would have Bitcoin follow the same blue box, green box, red box pattern. The yellow arrows I've drawn are just the general direction I might expect Bitcoin's price to go in this "$1 Million by 2020" scenario. That doesn't mean we won't see small runs in between now and 2020, especially when short squeezes occur. Alternatively, if the price ever dips below the orange line for more than a brief period of time, there could be dire panic and a lot of blood in the streets.
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Again, please take this post with a large portion of salt. I'm merely entertaining an idea, and not presenting what I think will actually happen. Markets have a tendency of disappointing people who have greedy expectations. The above scenario is the greediest of the greedy, so don't invest based on this post; use your own judgement.
Thank you for reading; shares and comments are always welcome.
Well I will eat my own dick if it gets to 500k by 2020. I will be doing so from my private island though so it will not be all bad.
Macaffee is mainly a coke-snorting shill but he is entertaining in a Dan Bilzerian kinda way.
Macaffee is delusional, that's true
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