It’s difficult for me to summarize here on my public blog the many detailed private emails I send out which update my thoughts. I can’t keep up. Too many things on my todo list. Read also my most recent comment posts and especially the one I wrote about an expected altcoin rally in February.

It’s impossible to obtain virgin mined BTC now. No pools will provide it and no mining farm we can deal with is significant enough to mine outside of a pool.

The only viable options (if the price is ~$40+k before the May 14 halving event and thus likely the SegWit attack will occur) include:

1. Sell some BTC before May 14.
2. Hodl some BTC in legacy addresses (e.g. those that begin with a 1 instead of 3 or bc1) and hope for a window of time to sell after the SegWit attack has died done (blocks not so full with donations) and before the FATF has ruled that mining farms must freeze tainted lineage BTC. Note the posited attack may destroy most of the exchanges, so no assurance of being able to cash out at the $100+k prices expect for the legacy BTC after the imposter Core BTC is destroyed.
3. Invest in ASIC mining hardware and sell the hardware when BTC is priced at $100+k later in 2020. Note the mining hardware is much cheaper if purchased in and kept in China.
4. Go for a leveraged margin long position on BTC and generate more BTC before selling in May. Note this incurs risk if posited price rises do not occur.
5. Speculate on BSV rising after the posited attack. I am not confident about this. Might be a trap.

Per my most recent blog Legacy Bitcoin to radically outperform gold, among other conclusions I have also decided to abandon any plans for Asia and I will back in the USA as of Feb. 7.

I have decided to abandon all plans in the Philippines for permanent living and/or business. It’s not just the incompetence/arrogance of the Bureau of Immigration, but that this bureaucracy intensive legacy Spanish legal system seems to pervade everything. I found out that most of the land I was interested in classified as agricultural land and the conversion process to residential or commercial use requires multiple years at best and involves numerous government agencies (and thus also opportunities to get entangled in corruption):

https://www.anahawproperty.com/property-conversion-in-the-philippines/

In theory can’t even build even one residential structure on 5 hectares of agricultural land, although filipinos may be able to get away with it — a foreigner would likely not. Also the only way to legally hold more than 5 hectares (even in a corporation) in the Philippines is some complex agri-tourism classification which then involves numerous government agencies involved in all your operations and plans:

http://philagrivest.com/new-project-of-the-pili-nut-farm-philagrivest-inc

Which also provides a 6 year tax holiday and if the foreigner invests $200k he receives a permanent visa to the Philippines (but never can a foreigner own more than 40% of the land rights even if indirectly):

https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2009/11/10/implementing-rules-and-regulations-of-republic-act-no-9593/

Good lord no wonder the Philippines can never attract American businessmen. Only oppressed peoples like Chinese investors are going to opt for that crap and they’ll find a way to become a citizen over the long haul. In theory if reside in the Philippines for 5 to 10 years, then can apply for citizenship but in practice it’s very difficult to obtain and you must renounce former nationalities.

Note up to 12 hectares is allowed in some circumstances regardless, but the criteria for this is apparently unclear even to the Philippines government and they continue to change their mind:

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/591487/new-rules-set-on-privately-used-but-untitled-agricultural-land

Also there’s no such thing as title insurance in the Philippines!

[…]

Also Philippines’ land is relatively expensive compared to land in FL, CA, Baja CA, and Chile.

[…]

There’s no future in the Philippines […]

https://retiringtothephilippines.com/guide/about-the-philippines/ultimately-left-philippines/

Note if ever buying in the Philippines, again road infrastructure needs to be kept in mind. Only Luzon has the toll highway system (which is aggressively being extended now) for hassle-free travel over long distance. However, one can imagine even the toll roads might become congested someday in the future, although presumably they could widen them with the right-of-way and land rights already in place.

[…]

Note I do expect USA real estate (especially the houses, less so raw agricultural land) to drop -70% over the coming decade or so. So I am not in a rush to buy real estate in the USA.

[…]

I met a young Peruvian couple in the elevator tonight. So nice to hear Spanish and see the difficult culture. The couple was so much more conversational than the crap I see in the Filipino culture. Filipinos converse with grunts like apes. Single words or simplistic outbursts of interactions. The Peruvian couple was in a deep dialogue. Just confirmed for me that I need to GTFO out of Asia immediately. I am so sick and tired of being here. Will leave to USA asap. I am happy that I finally became convinced as to the correct decision. I hate Asian culture. Hate. There are plenty of attractive ladies over there, but airheads no brains. [remember brown races typically have an average IQ of 88, but it’s also layered on with cultural problems such as a low-trust, uncooperative society]

Philippines under Duterte beginning to dehitch from the USA. Canceling the Visiting Forces Agreement is tantamount to disparaging the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the USA.

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/1/24/bato-dela-rosa-united-states-visa.html

At least he decided to do that instead of rescinding visa-free travel for Americans to the Philippines, which would have been intensely unpopular.

Most of the Filipinos like the USA more than China, so Duterte has a political problem:

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/1/25/duterte-chinese-new-year-2020.html

I think it is likely that whomever follows Duterte in 2022, will attempt to turn back towards a more balanced policy between China and the USA, because politically China is not popular in the Philippines. Duterte is trying to win investments from China.

But ultimately money talks. And China’s influence in the Philippines is likely to grow later in this decade.

[…]

Well Philippines’ immigration showed the Filipino hospitality in reaction to my flight being cancelled by Taal volcanic eruption by fining me $600 (Express Lane $200 fee!), garnishing my passport (can only pick up at airport when I depart), issuing a deportation order, and forcing to waste ~4 days in their decrepit, hermetic orifices sandwiched like a sardines with 100s of other foreigners from all nations (including Africans, Middle Easterns, Indians) including many boisterous, ill-behaved Chinese.

In short, you never want to deal with the Manila branch of the immigration department. Try to never need to go there.

The Philippines is a decrepit place and culture. The only redeeming quality really are the hordes of attractive ladies who are very attracted to white guys with long noses.

[…]

Btw, here is a gruesome photo of what a carabao looks like after being fried on downed electrical wires:

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1220449/farmer-electrocuted-on-way-to-leyte-farm

This is why you do not want to live in the Philippines. Extremely dangerous country in many ways.

My eyes are reopening to the reality.

[…]

You really do not want to report more than $500k in income to the IRS because the risk of audit jumps significantly:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/25/heres-when-your-tax-return-could-spark-interest-from-the-irs.html

[…]

Monero is not anonymous. Actually the opposite. It is a honeypot used to collect information on people. I detailed this in a blog I wrote 2 years ago and this has been further confirmed by other independent research.

You should check whether they are using Bitpay to accept crypto payments. If yes, then Bitpay will require your id, so your anonymity is blown.

[…]

Remember CA leads trends that follow in the rest of the country:

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/new-home-sales-disappoint-slump-5-month-lows?commentId=2787b791-a516-4b80-bbb7-a2142484f5e6

As a noted economist said,"If you paid more than $500 an acre, you got ripped off."

Burlingame, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Bay Area Land Prices Tank

https://www.zillow.com/burlingame-ca/home-values/

A Bay area broker disclosed, “prices and rental rates are cratering and there is nothing anyone can do about it.”

[…]

You are still talking about Bitcoin for 2021, 2022 as if we will still be able to use Bitcoin.

The global elite want a two-tiered currency system. We will be kicked off of Bitcoin this year.

Ever heard of the FATF?

I know you probably believe this is just too fantastical to be true. I am going to relish getting your reaction if everythingI have laid out comes to fruition.

[…]

And moreover, I really want to see what happens to the W.O. maximalists. Will they just disappear? This is going to be very interesting.

Yeah my posited scenario could be entirely wrong. I doubt it. We will see...

[…]

Update about my situation in Manila and my plans for the next few weeks

The Philippines immigration department finished the processing of my case today. They ruled that I can leave the country after processing my NBI clearance, paying a $500 fine, paying $100 for the monthly extension and the ECC clearance. I will be allotted 15 days to leave the country after submitting the final requirements and paying the egregious fees.

All of that because Taal erupted and my flight was cancelled. Charging this egregious cost to a learning experience.

I submitted myself to fingerprinting at NBI today. The crap they make us foreigners go through here in the Philippines is a good reminder why I mostly hate the Philippines. So disrespectful the head guy there at the NBI for the foreign section […] Have to go back tomorrow to show my flight ticket so they will release my clearance tomorrow by 3pm instead of making me wait until Jan 31 for it. Then I can file that with the immigration department and pay the fines, and wait for 2 or 3 working days for immigration to complete the process. Then I will be free to leave.

[…]

Hopefully before the end of February (maybe as soon as start of the 3rd week), I will be in an apartment with fast Internet and acclimating to life in the USA. I have not been in the USA since 2006 which I was 41 years old. That was when my ex infected me with a high strain of HPV in May 2006, which seemed to start all my ongoing chronic health problems ever since.

[…]

Anyway, I think I have been going through a process the past several weeks of trying to adjust psychologically to the huge change coming in my life. I was not quite ready to leave my gf and leave the Philippines as of December. First step was to leave Mindanao and reitegrate with American culture/food in Angeles City. That started to ignite my homesick feelings. Changed my feeling from one of dreading returning to starting to feel the strong desire to return to the USA.

As of now I am full on super excited to return to the USA. Just looking at the images of […] TX, thinking about being able to drive on wide open roads, thinking about eating Mexican food again, thinking about the cooler climate and getting back into sports/gym, and thinking about being able to work with fast Internet and a nice ambiance. So many enticing thoughts. Really excited to go back home again. Not at all interested in the Austin area. Want to avoid crowds for a while. So sick and tired of congested places.

Hopefully I will be able to get really serious about creating the anonymity altcoin we are all going to need coming 2021.

[…]

I will not be going to Thailand. Want to get the heck out of Asia asap, before this coronavirus spreads.

Note I had to pay ~$380 to rebook my […] flight. But I will receive ~$130 refund for my unused one-way flight to Bangkok. And I already received ~$550 refund (to my credit card) for the unused roundtrip flights to Bangkok […]

I AM COMING HOME AFTER 14 YEARS ABSENCE. YAHOO!

[…]

I can’t emphasize enough how excited I am to come home to the USA. Super duper excited and filled with joy about it. Can’t wait to get back.

I had been over in the Philippines so long that I had stopped realizing how horrible it is to be here. I had adjusted.

Angeles City was such a huge step up from Mindanao. But in retrospect, it is still only 10 or 20% of the USA.

Okay I will admit there’s lots of pretty girls in the Philippines. That’s the only reason to go here. Period.

But it’s okay. I’d much rather a sexy motorcycle than a sexy girl, lol […] I have no problem about female companionship. That’s too easy to find.

Much more important to stop wasting my life on inefficient shit. And get back to here I can lead a good, efficient, comfortable and productive life.

[…]

Cebu Pacific Airlines has lied and not refunded the ~$550 to my credit card. I have filed a complaint with Paypal as follows.

The flight from Manila to Bangkok on January 14 was cancelled due to the Taal volcanic eruption in the Philippines.

I went to the Cebu Pacific Airline office at Robinson’s mall in Ermita on January 16, Manila and was issued a refund. They said the refund would credit to my Paypal account within 3 to 5 working days. And then back to my Discover card within 14 working days. This refund has not appeared.

The airline refused to give me a receipt or reference #. They promised me that the refund would appear. Their official policy as posted on their blog is that full refunds were allowed to be claimed for up to 30 days from the originally scheduled date of the flight on January 14. Unfortunately these Philippines’ companies are very corrupt and do not keep their promises. Please refund this immediately or I will contact my Discover card to report the problem.