Cryptotourist wrote at the BCTalk forum:

@roachtheunsavory (aka realr0ach) wrote:

Cryptotourist wrote:

I still don't know exactly what to make of Anonymint's claims

Anonymint knows what he's posting is complete bullshit because you can't have a sky high Bitcoin price without mining cost of production expanding by orders of magnitude to match it. If we go by the same metrics as the last pump and dump scam hitting around $20k with $3k cost of production, for Anonymint's "$1 million Bitcoin" claim after just a single halving, you would need the equivalent of $150,000 cost of production to facilitate the same pump and dump scam to $1 million.

Thanks for your insight.
Now lets sing Kumbaya together, and pray that McAfee's future sacrifice will not be in vain. ::rolleyes::

r0ach, then you need to explain how the Bitcoin price attained a multiple in excess of 30 of the stock-to-flows price in the past? So with a S/Fs model price of $100k in 2020, and a potential multiple as high as 30 due to the acceleration and potential increase in front running the halving under way, that implies a $3 million price in 2020 is plausible.

Shown on the above chart is a multiple of 21 for the $16.85 closing price, but intraday price peaked above $30.

The cost of production rises as systemic hashrate does. If we accept your claim that cost of production must be some minimum fraction of the block reward (and by what theory can you assert there must be such a relationship?), your argument distills down to an inability to manufacture or repurpose enough mining equipment fast enough. So perhaps even GPUs will become profitable for mining Bitcoin again for a while.

Also keep in the mind that of the ~10 million BTC for which the private keys have not been lost, about ~7 million of them (last time I checked) are stored in SegWit addresses which will be donated to the legacy miners in 2020 if the SegWit attack occurs (which I think will be the event that drives the price of the legacy Bitcoin skyhigh). Thus the block reward can be perhaps orders-of-magnitude higher than normally, which as I say may facilitate mining with GPUs again until all of the SegWit donations have been taken (only so many can fit in each block).

Which btw, means that while the SegWit attack is ongoing, the transaction fee attached to your legacy Bitcoin transaction must be greater than the value of the SegWit donations that can be taken instead of including your transaction in a block. Which is why mostly none of us will be able to sell Bitcoin at the $1+ million price in 2020. By the time we are able to get our transaction included in the blockchain (2022?), the likelihood is much greater for us being walled off from doing so by the governments’ automatic nosebleed high income tax on obligatory airdropped Core tokens, capital controls, blockchain blacklists to be enforced by miners, proof-of-source-of-funds, KYC, AML, etc...

Dismiss the math of deterministic chaos (c.f. also) at your own peril.