Why the STEEM market cap is inevitably headed >1B
Hint: It ain't steemit.com
Today's market cap is <90M. IDGAF.
Today, Steemit.com is one of the only ways to realize $ using the steem blockchain. Tomorrow, that's not going to be the case. Let me paint a picture and tell you why this is. See, the STEEM blockchain is a really neat data storage device. First off, it's global and permanent, like most blockchains. When you write content to STEEM, it stays wrote. Now, there's a community of developers writing the hell out of app after app after app for STEEM. Sooner or later, markets are going to wise up to this, as are publishers: when people realize that steemit.com is the very tip of the STEEM iceberg, and that content added to the chain here or anywhere ends up at >100 places on the web, automagically, in different formats, to be discussed by different user-bases, we're going to see the mother of all pumps.
For me, I've got to guess that this pump is going to occur Dec-Jan, and stay pumping from Jan-Apr. And it's not going to dump thereafter, either.
I can hear it now..... "But, but.... blablabla whales blablablabla"
Guys, it's a blockchain. They're permanent. The founders realizing some hard-earned profits, or selling to support software dev, or hell, buying a goddamn yacht and painting steemit on it, just doesn't matter in the long-run. What matters is that the STEEM repository begins to attract devs, and the community continues to attract devs. We're talking some serious coked-up steve ballmer shit here:
And guess what? Dev communities of this size, they don't just disappear either. We've reached a critical mass, okay? How can we tell we've done so? There are >70 web applications using STEEM! Why so many? Well, because in building Steemit.com / STEEM, the ethereum model was NOT followed. Now, let's be clear: Not one app has successfully implemented Ethereum, and I'd like to predict that not even one ever will. They built it in a way that's not friendly to anyone, and implementing it in apps is HARD.
Steem, on the other hand is a JSON-based content storage mechanism. Developers, we know about these.
But... but vaporware! This vaporware will surely nuke us!
No, surely, it's not going to, and here's why: STEEM follows rule #1 of software development: KISS. That is:
Keep
It
Simple
Stupid
You see, the web is a whole ton of content. There's this phrase about marketing online:
Content is king
...And indeed, content IS king.
My Challenge: If you're feeling bitchy about the price of STEEM today, Please, please take my challenge:
Go out, to NYSE / NASDAQ / Wherever. Look at stock prices. Now, I know, I know, STEEM isn't a stock. That'd be illegal. So let's say that it's also not-not a stock, too. That's not to say that it is a stock. It's just not-not a stock.
Find me a single web property with as much impact as steemit and an equally sized developer community that ISN'T worth more than $1B.
Right. You can't. Because they don't exist.
So, you see, the market cap is headed to >1B, the following factors be damned:
- Whales
- Vaporware
- Whiny Anarchists
- Whiny Communists
- Whiny Capitalists
- Whiny Boomers
- Whiny Millennials
- Whiny Infants
- Freakin Marx Himself coming back from the dead and claiming STEEM as "The people's blockchain"
None of these really matter at this stage, because software development has taken hold.
"But Synereo!"
No, Damn it, no! Is synereo simple? Can you figure out how to do dev work for it in an afternoon? Or do you visit their pages and the pages of their "projects" and wonder "what the hell is going on here anyway?"
Automaticc, parent company of Wordpress, there's a >$1B organization. That's where steemit is headed. I think the best thing that can be done for BOTH STEEM and steemit at this stage is to find as many ways as possible to throw money into SW dev in a structured fashion.
- Bounties might work, but the fact of the matter is that they're not as effective as cash, and do not attract the same kind of development.
- Blog posts might work, but the fact of the matter is that they take time away from punching letters into the keyboard to build the apps, databases, converters, ingestors, etc that will feed the REAL growth of STEEM.
My suggestion:
- The STEEM registered developer's fund.
It should pay SBD salaries to registered software developers who've committed to develop for our chain. Why? Because there's so much to be done, and it can boost us so very far. Look, I bet most software dev types here can relate to me when I say "I hate to think about money." So, Community, think about it for us, eh? There's no reason that the registered developers's fund couldn't fire people if needed, but with the fund in place, we could hire the hell out of some awesome devs, and do so in a way that doesn't involve their risking all the time on some blog posts. Steemit is not the lottery, but right now deving for it is a little bit like one.
I'm with you, we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg with the technologies at play here. The development team behind steem (graphene blockchain) and steemit.com (the website) are fundamentally changing how user generated content sites like this function. The big problem right now is no one see's it, mainly because all they see is a place to post things and earn rewards.
You think by the end of 2016 we'll see enough alternate projects for people to just start "getting it"?
Yes, yes I do.
And I think that the alternate projects are likely to eclipse steemit.com-- but that's okay! Guys, it's always, always, always been about the blockchain. My operational theory on Steemit has always been that it's a tech demo: The equivalent of Dan & Crew going: Hey, look what we can do, NO, damn it, LOOK!
And you know, that's a perfectly great thing to do. Graphene has now been around for years. It's surely time that the world begins looking, and looking much, much more closely. Hell, let's do a quick compare of BTS vs ETH:
ETH: 1 DAO scandal and crazy-ass blockchain-reversing hard fork
BTS: 0 DAO scandal and crazy-ass blockchain-reversing hard fork
I rest my case.
time will make it visible brother, also have you noticed quality and google search page ranking of the steemit.com content? That's just amazing, most of quality content ranked #1, in couple month people naturally find Steemit and learn more about Steem.
I have noticed, and you know what? Soon, marketers and the like will take notice, as well.
Great post and 100% agree that it is just a beginning. I have been suggesting to attract more and more developers as well, be it through social media or be it through bountysource.com, etc. I have started eSteem and yet, I wish I could have more time in a day to developer of my other project ideas... though I think once development of eSteem reaches stability point where updates flow is at fixed rate, expect more projects from my side :-)
I'm not really a believer in bounties. They can help, but they only attract a certain type (who can stomach that level of risk).
Here's the equation that (most) devs follow with bounties and startups where payment is deferred:
(value of time invested) * (likelihood of payout) = $x
vs
steady payments from a dedicated customer or employer = $x
Dev work does not always go the way that developers think it will at the outset, and developers know enough to know this. There's a good deal of risk inherent in starting any dev project, and sometimes the customer isn't aware of that risk. This is why the best devs usually contract on a 50% now, 50% after completion basis, or even a 100% upfront basis: Often it is the dev spec that is to blame, not the developer.
Nice post faddat i agree as usual. Specialy on bounty vs cash
About developer funds I do thinl the fundation we re working on with few active members will help a lot in this direction
It may seem that my proposal is not precisely Steem-oriented. But the mechanisms I have designed for building an anonymised, multi-tier blockchain and what I call transient blockchain infrastructure, with a profit incentive for providers of infrastructure, a free-form network of freelance job and marketing systems, a compartmentalised corporate infrastructure. Just read this, and you will see how Steem fits into it, as a component in the money-trading side of it, just one of the many possible applications of a general model, and a somewhat controversial illustration of it in operation.
With Agora, Steem becomes a facet of a bigger system, a means to organising every kind of business you can imagine, and includes a model for how to get the jump on agitprop intelligence gathering and trouble-fomenting, and all without a single shot being fired:
https://steemit.com/agorism/@l0k1/agora-a-local-centric-distributed-compartmental-corporate-infrastructure
This is a BRILLIANT piece and thanks for sharing. I'm happy to upvote and share this on Twitter✔ for my followers to read and grasp the real potential of Steemit as a CryptoCurrency powered by a blogging tool where in essence the blogging is the mining. Again, great post. Following and looking forward to reading more of your posts. Cheers. Stephen
Thanks a ton @stephenkendal
It means a ton to me that you'll be using this to grow the community :D.
Thanks Stephen, I'm really happy to hear that you'll be sharing this post around :).
... and check it out! You've a new twitter follower now, too!
And when that ^^ happens STEEMIT will achieve perfection :)
(you got me to follow you)
https://steemit.com/steem/@luminousvisions/safe-steemit-1-day-voting-moratorium-for-the-whales
I agree with everything you said (good post), with one exception.
Google will refuse to index, and show search results to 100+ versions of the same content.
A website needs this content to gain visitors through organic search. The only way this could work, is that if people do not need to depend on Google sending them traffic.
Which is possible, but hasn't been done much that I've seen.
This would be the concern of an SEO specialist. If we get this issue out of the way, then yes, I'm excited for our future.
Great news everyone!
Google still finds 100+ versions of the same content, and that content gets ranked higher because it's in so many places :D
... it just doesn't all go on the front page. The article on the highest quality site as judged by google will end up on the front page.
https://support.google.com/webmasters/answer/66359?hl=en
helpful to ensure = You should