So unpredictable economy. Or what gives the Nobel prize?

After reading the post @kyriacos You Shouldn't Take Advice From Those Who Are Successful I can said one that it intrigued me the time. Namely, his phrases that

the decisions we take tend to be emotional rather than logical

And

Your daily life involves trillions of micro-events that together create your own unique future. A small change can make you win the lottery or leave you paralyzed for life

By education I am an economist. By nature a philosopher and contemplative. Watching what is happening around me, and remembering about "the butterfly effect" and cognitive distortions, I can confidently say that it is all true. Our world is full of unknown variables. Around us there are events that do not fit into any formula. It reminds me of the "black box" where input might be successful tactics single player or blogger😄😁😊 , and the output is strange, uncontrollable result.

If you think that everything happens precisely according to plan, then you are clearly mistaken. As if we didn't think about efficiency there would always be some bad predicted values that violate the whole picture. Not without reason in the 2016 Nobel prize in Economics was awarded for a contract theory.

Economic models do not work in a vacuum but in a real environment, with real people. And some of their actions are no observable — as if it were a "black box". In the economy there are two schools: classical and neoclassical. The second of them more and more captures liderstvo. This trend suggests the rationality of economic agents, but widely uses the theory of economic equilibrium and game theory. "Is it in the economy?" — ask you. So an unusual turn.

Two great scientists, each in his own country ( the British economist Oliver HART of Harvard University (USA), Finnish economist Bengt Kholmstrem, Professor Massachusetts Institute of technology (USA)) developed the theory of contracts. Made it more adapted to the modern world. Although this unpredictability in the behavior of owners, managers, and us did not become less😄😁😊 .

The theory of contracts — section of economic theory dealing with the determination of the parameters of a contract by economic agents in the conditions of the (usually) asymmetric information. That is not contrary to the equilibrium theory. According to the first theorem of welfare utility function of all consumers locally an unsaturated. The validity of this theorem ensures that the equilibrium in the market is always optimal, so there is no need for state intervention in the economy. In reality it is not so.

No state is able to regulate all relations between members of society. Hence, this need for decentralization and isolation in the modern world. An example of this is blockchain platform and virtual currency.

From the point of view of this theory, the whole modern economy is based on infinite number of contracts. Virtually no relationship is not established without their registration in the form of contracts: laws, contracts, user agreements, oral agreements and relationships between market participants. Did our interaction on Steemite is not that kind of contract? Of course, yes.

Developed by Nobel laureates tools identify potential pitfalls in the design of formal contracts that conceal a conflict of interest. It is therefore very important to correctly draw up the contracts, their execution was beneficial for both parties.

Oliver HART in the mid-1980s has made a fundamental contribution to a new model of contract theory, namely the so-called "incomplete contracts*, where it is impossible to anticipate all possible circumstances and outcomes. Therefore, this model prescribes optimal conditions for allocation of rights of control between the parties: which party should assume the authority to make decisions in any situation. By and large, the incomplete contracts model is a model of behavior, which is observable, but not verifiable variables.

Perhaps because we so easily deceive and draw conclusions based on what we observe but can't identify. We can look but not see. One missing piece of the puzzle that will completely change the whole picture. There is a huge amount of other variables. For example, a novice came to Steemit last year or a month ago. Invited whether his friend or not. If he had heard anything about cryptocurrency or not. Shot his whether its first post or disappeared in the depths of New. However, we undertake not to violate the basic rules of business. Do not use profanity. Not copy-paste.

The theme of contract theory multifaceted. Scientists have managed expand in the field of law, politics, property relations. Yes what there to speak on formal and informal contracts is not only a modern economy but also our entire life — the relationship between the family, husband and wife, friends.

Need read success stories of other people, but bear in mind their experience, their worldview. Take of them of 30% for use. Another 30% remake for themselves. And the remaining percent never use just because you are different. Not like any other.

         Аnd you will be happy.

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