Braeburn's EPL - Game of the Day, City versus United (with tips!!)

A local derby is a huge game whatever the relative situations of the two clubs involved. If Southampton draw Portsmouth in this season's FA Cup then everything else will recede into the background, relegation struggles and promotion pushes will become white noise, ninety minutes against the arch enemy making all else an insignificant trifle. It is the same for Celtic against Rangers, Ipswich versus Norwich, Liverpool and Everton, the list goes on. Like these other games the Manchester derby requires no hype to be interesting but like so often my game of the day has huge significance for both of the sides involved.

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If you take the bookmakers word on the subject then today's game is a foregone conclusion, Manchester City are as short as 1.30 to triumph with a United win on offer for anywhere between 8.00 and 9.25. However, bookmakers odds do not, and never have, reflect the likelihood of a result and today prices are a great example of that. Yes, City have every right to be considered strong favourites but at odds of 1.30 against a rejuvenated United side that just won away at Juventus? I think not.

Manchester United, much like their manager, are a side reborn in the last few weeks. Comeback wins against Juventus, Bournemouth and Newcastle have all highlighted a new fighting spirit in the side. Add in the impressive second half at Stamford Bridge in last months draw with Chelsea and the odds on a United win look way, way too long. It is true that the team generally begin slowly but the confidence is returning to such an extent that José Mourinho has even been spotted actually smiling in recent weeks.

Of course, there is every chance that City will win the game, they are City after all. This is possibly the finest group of players every curated on these shores being guided and tweaked by quite possibly the finest coach. However, against top-level opposition Pep Guardiola's side have not had things quite there own way this season. Tottenham were defeated by only the narrowest of margins thanks to a very poor goal from a defensive point of view. The much-anticipated game versus Liverpool ended nil-nil. Sure, City had chances to win but having chances is not the same as taking them. Further back Lyon managed to go away from the Etihad with all three points in a Champions League group game. I am not saying that Manchester City are flat-track bullies and yet scoring five or six against Saints, Huddersfield or Burnley does not offer a fair barometer of this teams ability.

The bottom line is that today's encounter will turn out a much tighter affair than anticipated by many including our old friends, the Bookies. United know that a point will see them climb into sixth place, usurping both the early season pretenders, Bournemouth and Watford. Likewise, a point for City will retain top spot regardless of other results thanks to their vastly superior goal difference. Expect a good game but if it is goals galore you are after then I would look elsewhere.

Manchester City vs Manchester United, 16:30 (UK Time), Sunday 11th November.
Under 2.5 goals, 1 point at 2.84 with Betfair Exchange.
Draw, 1 point at 5.40 with Betfair Exchange.
City to win 1-0, 1 point at 12.50 with Betfair Exchange.
United to win 1-0, 1 point at 34.00 with Betfair Exchange.

Today's selections.

Date	Bet	Stake	Odds	Result	Bookie
11th Nov 2018	ManCvManU - Draw	1	5.40	Pending	Betfair Ex
11th Nov 2018	ManCvManU - Under 2.5	1	2.84	Pending	Betfair Ex
11th Nov 2018	ManCvManU - City 1-0	1	12.50	Pending	Betfair Ex
11th Nov 2018	ManCvManU - United 1-0	1	34.00	Pending	Betfair Ex

And here are the full details of all my bets from November so far.

P/L Figures

Month	Bets	Won	Lost	Push	Staked	Returns	Profit	ROI
Nov 2018	10	2	8	0	10.5	+12.25	+1.75	+16%