Market Brief / 31-07-2017

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The USD suffered another sell-off Friday, which was triggered by slower-than-expected US economic growth and increased worries over political risks concerning the Donald Trump administration. The ICE Dollar Index fell 0.7% to 93.25, its lowest close since May 2016.

The EUR/USD (longer term) recorded higher tops and higher bottoms since January, which confirmed a positive outlook. The RSI is supported by a rising trend line since November 2016. Hence, as long as 1.1300 is not broken, a further advance to 1.1860 and even to 1.2040 seems more likely to occur. Alternatively, a break below 1.1300 would trigger a return with 1.1120 (the low of June) as target.

The EUR/USD (intraday) remains bullish. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. If 1.1705 holds it is very likely we may see targets at 1.1775 and 1.1810 in extension. Alternatively below 1.1705 look for further downside with 1.1670 and 1.1630 as targets.

On the data slate there’s German Retail Sales; UK Net Lending to Individuals; UK Consumer Credit; UK Mortgage Approvals; UK M4 Money Supply; Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate; Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index; UK Inflation Report Hearing; US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index; US Pending Home Sales; US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index; US Loan Officer Survey and US 3- and 6-Month Bill Auctions.

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.1705 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.1630 – TARGET @ 1.1810
BUY GBP/USD @ 1.3100 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.3055 – TARGET @ 1.3185
SELL USD/JPY @ 110.70 OR BETTER – STOP @ 111.15 – TARGET @ 109.90
BUY CL0917 @ 49.50 OR BETTER – STOP @ 48.90 – TARGET @ 50.80
BUY AUD/USD @ 0.7960 OR BETTER – STOP @ 0.7910 – TARGET @ 0.8100
BUY XAU @ 1265 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1257 – TARGET @ 1282
BUY XAG @ 16.50 OR BETTER – STOP @ 16.00 – TARGET @ 17.30

THE ABOVE BRIEF IS MY PERSONAL OPINION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY PROMISES OR GUARANTEES OF PROFITS. TRADING IN CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES ARE HIGH RISKS AND IT IS NOT FOR EVERYONE.

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