Bitcoin Price Forecast 1/25/2018
DID SOMEONE SAY RALLY?!
Current Market Cap: $572.5B (+$50.19B in one day) Bitcoin Dominance 34.4%(-0.3%)
With only 5 out of the top 100 coins in the red (including Tether) the market is looking rather healthy right now. We have jumped up quite a bit in market cap while falling in Bitcoin dominance so the alt-coin markets seem to be making up most of the growth. We are still far from the all-time market cap highs we saw over the past month however.
Will this be just another fake out or will this rally last more than a day?
Today I am using three different trading tools and indicators: Bollinger Bands, Stochastics and MACD
Bollinger Bands show that we are above the moving average which is around $11,000.
Stochastics show that we are overbought and falling back towards normal ranges.
MACD looks bullish but volumes must be maintained to prevent a trend reversal.
Likely Scenarios:
- BTC maintains the momentum it has gained over the past day and attempts to break through the resistance at $12K
- BTC bounces between $10.5K and $12K for most of the day
- BTC falls to $11K before rallying up towards the $12.5K zone
TLDR Version:
- Bitcoin has finally found some relief today as the market has gained some ground. The past month has been quite tumultuous due to fears of regulations and restrictions. Prices will face resistance around $12K with major support levels around $10.5K-$11K.
Price Target:
$12,250
Alt-Coins To Watch (waiting to jump):
- XRP
- BCH
- LTC
- XMR
- TRX
- ETC
- LSK
- XVG
- SC
Check Out My Last Bitcoin Post:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@hotsauceislethal/crypto-market-recap-1-23-2018
Feeling Salty About Missing The Crypto Boat?
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@hotsauceislethal/how-to-conquer-fomo-fear-of-missing-out
Don't Worry:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@hotsauceislethal/bitcoin-s-hype-cycle-is-finally-here
Fantastic Documentary About Relevant STUFF! (MUST WATCH!!!)
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@avii/mind-over-money-documentary
Like Bitcoin But Want To Avoid The Fees?
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@hotsauceislethal/save-money-when-sending-crypto
Pay No Transaction Fee From Coinbase!!!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@hotsauceislethal/no-transaction-fee-bitcoin-trick-using-coinbase
Need A Good Laugh?
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@hotsauceislethal/what-kind-of-crypto-trader-are-you
*Never invest more than you are willing to lose and always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
(All pictures are free domain images from snappygoat.com or created by myself.)
XRP is going to make moves soon, not 65000% moves, but strong evidence says it will double to 3.00
Yes it is definitely forming the kind of chart I like to see. I don't like to chase cheetas, I'd rather take down a nice fat slow water buffalo :-D
Agree it looks better, but i think the real relief will come after the future expiration. Lets hope we stay above 11k and onwards and upwards from there!
Hey man long time no see :) Yes I believe you are correct, this COULD be one final shake-out before the next round of contracts expires tomorrow (on the 26th of Jan). After that time there is nothing major holding Bitcoin back until we hit some resistance with government regulations.
Right now the powers that be are trying to stand in the way of Bitcoin. The majority of them being banks and local government. The US has been relatively quiet on the regulation front, letting the SEC do the majority of the work.
Yeah its been a while, very busy with work and trading in the spare time i had. Will start writing some more blog posts again. being here again i think i missed it.
With regards to the powers that be, yes they are standing in the way of BTC, but it also might be just to get in on it cheaper. Many of the negative media coverage is just being orchestrated i believe. Soon new highs mate (at least i hope haha)
I have a feeling that we'll be sticking around at 11k for a while. Ironically I was shocked at how long we stayed at 14k and here we are. 8k is definitely possible if we look downward.
If we are looking at EW patterns then we could definitely be on wave C which would mean a further downtrend is coming. I honestly don't believe that we will see $8K BTC like everyone has been saying... If the price is going to fall to that level it would be from manipulation in order to take advantage of short contracts. That is PRECISELY what happened a week ago and BTC closed at $10.5K as a result- many people shorting BTC lost everything because of blind greed.
The only bullish hope i see is the divergence of the MACD-histogram with the price on the daily chart.
Being optimistic, this divergence came because of the deepest point of the regression on 17. Jan. If this was not the deepest point, the price can be free falling after making a new low below the 17. Jan.
Coincidentally on the 17th the first round of futures contracts expired... it isn't a surprise that the market crashed because it was caused by obvious market manipulation. The fact that futures contracts are settled in CASH and not BTC is simply another nail in the coffin... Manipulators dumped their actual BTC at a profit and then closed out their shorts on margin at $10.5K further multiplying their gains.
The only thing left for them to do was to wait for the panic sellers/stop losses to pile in and then buy back up the decimated BTC market.
That definitely explains the 17th jan.
It is common practice to hedge assets by shorting futures.
One wins right from the start because of the difference between future price and the spot price at that time. It is a secured profit. Whatever the price does from there on does not matter.
The asset has to be sold however when the future contract ends, since one would be long with the asset without having it hedged.
Thank you for pointing out the date of ending future contracts. That adds informations when a price drop can be expected.
I went to CME for the future expiration dates http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_product_calendar_futures.html
There the January contracts end on 31st.
Which marketplaces had their btc futures expire on 17th ?
The CBOE I believe- Chicago Board Options Exchange.
And you are confused about the CME my friend they SETTLE on the 31st but trading stops the last Friday of the contract month :
"Jan 2018 (contract month)
BTCF18 (product code)
15 Dec 2017 (first trade)
26 Jan 2018 (last trade)
31 Jan 2018 (settlement)"
Source
This is from the CBOE:
"Termination of Trading:
Trading hours for expiring XBT futures contracts end at 2:45 p.m. Chicago time on the Final Settlement Date.
The expiring XBT future will be put in a closed state at 2:44:59 p.m. Chicago time on its Final Settlement Date. As a result, no Orders, quotes, or Order modifications in the expiring XBT future will be accepted by the Cboe System at or after 2:44:59 p.m. Chicago time on its Final Settlement Date. The Cboe System will complete the processing of any trades in the expiring XBT future on its Final Settlement Date that are matched by the Cboe System and that the Cboe System begins to process prior to 2:44:59 p.m. Chicago time. The Cboe System will not process any trades in the expiring XBT future on its Final Settlement Date that the Cboe System does not match and begin to process prior to 2:44:59 p.m. Chicago time.
Final Settlement Date:
The Final Settlement Date for "weekly" XBT futures is two business days prior to the Friday of the week denoted by the ticker symbol. The Final Settlement Date for "serial" and "quarterly" XBT futures is two business days prior to the third Friday of the month denoted by the ticker symbol. These Final Settlement Dates apply regardless of whether one of the above-referenced Fridays is a CFE holiday.
If the Final Settlement Date is a CFE holiday, the Final Settlement Date shall be the business day immediately preceding the holiday. "
Source
This is why the CBOE contracts ended on the 17th and the CBOE ends on the 26th... Confusing as hell I know.
Thank you very much ! I did not know about trading end and settlement difference.
So today trading ends for XBT futures and we can expect people to either sell their btc or short the next future in order to secure the next future-spot difference.
Probably both. Which will mean that btc should become very volatile today. Right ?
I would like to add the more abstract picture. We are currently testing the fat uptrend line (price chart is switched to the logarithmic view):
That is why MACD looks bullish, but during the leap to $20 000 we had a trip away from the red trend line. Probably the movement should be compensated with the walk below the opposite side of the trend line.
Thank for the metrics, @hotsauceislethal! Following you.
Ooh very nice! Thanks for your contribution to the blog! I expect to be seeing you around.
Going to take off in no time. Futures expire...