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RE: Bitcoin Price Forecast 1/25/2018
The only bullish hope i see is the divergence of the MACD-histogram with the price on the daily chart.
Being optimistic, this divergence came because of the deepest point of the regression on 17. Jan. If this was not the deepest point, the price can be free falling after making a new low below the 17. Jan.
Coincidentally on the 17th the first round of futures contracts expired... it isn't a surprise that the market crashed because it was caused by obvious market manipulation. The fact that futures contracts are settled in CASH and not BTC is simply another nail in the coffin... Manipulators dumped their actual BTC at a profit and then closed out their shorts on margin at $10.5K further multiplying their gains.
The only thing left for them to do was to wait for the panic sellers/stop losses to pile in and then buy back up the decimated BTC market.
That definitely explains the 17th jan.
It is common practice to hedge assets by shorting futures.
One wins right from the start because of the difference between future price and the spot price at that time. It is a secured profit. Whatever the price does from there on does not matter.
The asset has to be sold however when the future contract ends, since one would be long with the asset without having it hedged.
Thank you for pointing out the date of ending future contracts. That adds informations when a price drop can be expected.
I went to CME for the future expiration dates http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_product_calendar_futures.html
There the January contracts end on 31st.
Which marketplaces had their btc futures expire on 17th ?
The CBOE I believe- Chicago Board Options Exchange.
And you are confused about the CME my friend they SETTLE on the 31st but trading stops the last Friday of the contract month :
"Jan 2018 (contract month)
BTCF18 (product code)
15 Dec 2017 (first trade)
26 Jan 2018 (last trade)
31 Jan 2018 (settlement)"
Source
This is from the CBOE:
"Termination of Trading:
Trading hours for expiring XBT futures contracts end at 2:45 p.m. Chicago time on the Final Settlement Date.
The expiring XBT future will be put in a closed state at 2:44:59 p.m. Chicago time on its Final Settlement Date. As a result, no Orders, quotes, or Order modifications in the expiring XBT future will be accepted by the Cboe System at or after 2:44:59 p.m. Chicago time on its Final Settlement Date. The Cboe System will complete the processing of any trades in the expiring XBT future on its Final Settlement Date that are matched by the Cboe System and that the Cboe System begins to process prior to 2:44:59 p.m. Chicago time. The Cboe System will not process any trades in the expiring XBT future on its Final Settlement Date that the Cboe System does not match and begin to process prior to 2:44:59 p.m. Chicago time.
Final Settlement Date:
The Final Settlement Date for "weekly" XBT futures is two business days prior to the Friday of the week denoted by the ticker symbol. The Final Settlement Date for "serial" and "quarterly" XBT futures is two business days prior to the third Friday of the month denoted by the ticker symbol. These Final Settlement Dates apply regardless of whether one of the above-referenced Fridays is a CFE holiday.
If the Final Settlement Date is a CFE holiday, the Final Settlement Date shall be the business day immediately preceding the holiday. "
Source
This is why the CBOE contracts ended on the 17th and the CBOE ends on the 26th... Confusing as hell I know.
Thank you very much ! I did not know about trading end and settlement difference.
So today trading ends for XBT futures and we can expect people to either sell their btc or short the next future in order to secure the next future-spot difference.
Probably both. Which will mean that btc should become very volatile today. Right ?