There was never support at 10k, ever.
Unit bias is at it again. Crypto news is so boring. Every other article is some BS speculation post about price action. You know what I keep hearing over and over and over and over again?
Bitcoin has broken support at 10k again.
Someone please show me where, in the decade long history of Bitcoin, that we've ever had support at 10k. Yeah, that's never been a thing. Bitcoin has never ever had support at 10k, yet everyone and their mother is shouting it from the rooftops every damn time it dips under 10k.
Bitcoin has dipped under 10k nine times in the last three months. Every time it has dipped significantly under 10k, it bottomed out at a higher level than the time before, yet people keep spouting nonsense about it breaking this mythical support. Why?
Unit Bias
Unit bias is everywhere and affects everyone.
Unit bias was even making me fat:
Oh well there's just a little bit of food left on this plate.
I have to finish it to complete the meal.
Cut it out.
Chances are unit bias is messing with your head and causing you to make bad decisions in one way or another. Get to know yourself and be on the lookout for when your brain plays tricks on you like this. Our brain likes to find patterns in the randomness of life when there is often no pattern to be found. Check yourself.
But 10000 is such a nice round number!
I know right?
It's even the very first 5 digit base 10 integer.
How could we not decide that Bitcoin has a support line there?
It's so close to 10k, so it is 10k.
It not, get over it.
I don't have high hopes for Bakkt like many others do. I think the market is being tested for this. If Bitcoin breaks under $9600 I think we are going to the $7500-$8000 level in October. It's kind of annoying because I was talking about this level before everyone else, and I have proof on the blockchain, but now it just looks like I'm copying the opinions of the "pros".
But it really does feel like the market is just itching to dump the second Bakkt gets here. Why is the market slowly descending as we get closer and closer to this 'bullish' event where trillions of dollars are suddenly going to be unlocked to the market?
Have we stopped to consider that maybe whales are looking to dump into that liquidity and take more gains on an asset that's already gone x3 this year? Seriously, x3... this shit is unheard of in the traditional markets, and it's totally unregulated Wild West insanity.
Doesn't matter.
Even if Bitcoin crashes to $7500 (I think the absolute minimum it can possibly go is $6k under extremely dire conditions) it simply isn't worth gambling on. Who cares if you have to chance to save 20% when there are possibly 300%-600% gains on the table coming up in as little as three months? For me, the math here is easy. Don't take the risk, stay in the market.
Uber bullish on winter.
Winter has always been our time. If Bakkt really is going to bring a lot of money into the space, why would we think that would happen on day one of it opening? It really shows how impatient and greedy we all are to think such a thing.
Personally, I think it's more likely this is all ramping up to an epic winter bull run. Not only can Bakkt futures take actual liquidity off the market over time, but traders might also start foolishly try to start pricing in the Bitcoin halving event 5 months in advance.
Be on the lookout for halvening hype this winter. If we see a lot it means that the winter pump and dumb will potentially be massive. Everyone will be like, "See! Bakkt is bringing in all this nonstop money! To the moon." And that's when the dump comes and no one believes it's coming even though it happens every damn year, lol.
Small potatoes.
When we look at what's going on in the world and why Bitcoin was created in the first place, all these things I've been talking about kind of pale in comparison to the next financial collapse and the price action history of Bitcoin 6-12 months AFTER the halving event. If you're going to go on autopilot, make sure to show up for the end of 2020. I think that's where the real fireworks will be. It's hard to be patient but I'm trying.
I'm not a trader, and remain skeptical of crypto still. Having said that, I follow your posts on crypto to inform myself on what's what. You seem to hit the head dead on, and for the most part don't come off as the pump and dump guy.
I used to know a guy who was into Bitcoin before it was worth anything, and he hated that speculators were ruining it, that it was never about pairing with fiat. I always got the impression you two would have fantastic conversations to listen to.
He was damn right!
It's not about a pairing with fiat.
People cant believe that in some time they wont even have to trade their btc for millions of cash..
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If 10K is support, its not particularly good support and is...elastic. Does seem as though the 10.5 and 10.8K resistance is very real.
Its just such a boring market. I think the little bump in the alt coins was motivated by boredom as much as anything. Of course the old adage "never short a boring market" comes to mind. Just when everyone is asleep, someone sets off the fireworks.
10,000 is a nice, psychological level..nothing more.
Market action means little is such small markets anyway. The swings are big since it takes little to move the market. A couple of whales can set it on a downward plunge, or a bull run.
I agree with you...I think the onset tomorrow will be a major letdown.
Patience is indeed required. Things will take off since the global economic system is teetering on the brink of collapse. Markets are going to crash all over the place.
I have a feeling that will bode very well for crypto since it will be a hedge for many. Even a few hundred billion pumped into this industry would be huge.
You're also number biased.
Otherwise you wouldnt talk about a Steem .16 bottom.. ;)
The universe is in base 12.
It is so strange that humans have been bred to have an affinity for base 10.
We even call it scientific. And made up this stupid system of metrics based on 10. And called it scientific.
Even while the universe screams 12.
So, it is interesting this flirting with 10,000 for so long.
I expect that some day, i will wake up and it will be 100,000...
and i won't even notice for a little while.
yeah, bitcoin is just flirting with that bunch of 0's line still.
I’ve been staring at the $7200-$8500 mark for 4 months! Can it go there? If so, it’s time to freakin’ stack! 😂
Posted using Partiko iOS
10,000¥
I noticed the exact same thing. Google is going nuts showing me "analysis" from "top traders," geez.
What support at 10K? Around 8K is the pivot point for the year so we might bounce off there. Might is the keyword.
Great write-up! Thanks!
You are right, 10000 is an arbitrary number. However, a lot of the support and resistance is driven by human psychology and it is hard to not take that into account.
I forgot to talk about the trading bots that drive the market. Surely, humans place a significance on 10000, but computers do not. No one would ever program in such ridiculous heuristics into their basic AI.
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