Deeper Down the Rabbit Hole: The How and Why of Predicting Solar Flares, Earthquakes, and the Megaflare

The sun has been driving force of life here on Earth; without it, all life as we know it would end. The sun is 1,304,000 times greater than the size of Earth, so the energy that leaves the Sun to hit Earth can be huge. Although sun activity is a constant event, those that watch the sun are always watching for the spectacle of a lifetime: the Megaflare. Richard Carryington was sketching sunspots on September 1st, 1859 when he witnessed two blinding white lights that were indicative of a massive solar flare: known as the Carryington Event. This massive burst of charged particles struck the earth during the birth of our electric age, so the only damage was telegraph offices catching fire and shocking the operators. However, a megaflare with just as much strength would have the capacity to disrupt radio communication, shut down satellites, and possibly cause a world-wide blackout.

The megaflare alone is worth the time of day to observe the sun since it normally strikes every one hundred to couple hundred years. The Earth is not defenseless however, it's magnetic field shields us from energy released from the sun and cosmic rays emitted from the universe. The magnetosphere has been weakening at an accelerating pace though, with 10% of the shield's strength dropping from the 19th century to 2010, with another 5% dropping from 2010-2015 according to the European Space Agency. A weakening magnetosphere means that small solar events could induce bigger effects on Earth. Watching for indicators of solar events is beneficial to understanding a deeper relationship between solar events and weather/climate here on Earth. An indicator of particular note is solar wind.

Solar wind is the primary force that affects Earth, it is composed of plasma and charged particles such as protons, electrons, and helium nuclei. Almost every other element found in the periodic table is found in the solar wind as well. These occur due to the intense strength of the Sun's magnetic field, it forces the charged particles to leave. These streams of energy constantly leave the sun and you can see them using NASA's helioviewer in the form of plasma filaments which can create solar tornadoes of charged particles.

The solar tornado on the left, top side is relatively weak in terms of our sun, but it's length is more than 8 Earths long so its magnetic strength is very powerful in retrospect to the Earth. (This tornado was recorded on January 30th, 2018) The solar wind speed and proton density of the stream are all relevant in determining the strength of the particle streams that hit Earth. NASA's ACE solar telemetry chart is great source of information.

This is an example of a very small particle stream hitting Earth, the normal readings for solar speed is around 300 km/s and an average density is 1.0 protons/cm. Solar winds released by solar flares can cause winds to increase to 700 km/s and the average density to increase to 20 protons/cm. A megaflare would cause the speed to be much faster, over 1500 km/s while proton density would increase to 50-100 times its average. These solar flares are produced by sunspots.

Sunspots are condensed particle streams and magnetic fields that are captured by negative and positive regions on the surface of the sun which form magnetic loops of those particles. These regions are created from the inner magnetic fields of the sun poking through the surface. The sunspots have two components: the umbra and the penumbra. The umbra is the main dark electromagnetic area that carries plasma and charged particles in and out of the sun. The penumbra is the lighter section around the umbra which consists of perpendicular electromagnetic radiation to the in-out force of the sunspot, similar to the perpendicular electromagnetic field that is generated by inducing a current through a wire. Using NASA's magnetogram, the sunspots reveal themselves to have a positive (blue) region and negative (red) region.

This picture shows some mixing potential as a little bit of the positive (blue) region can be found within the negative (red) region. When these opposing sunspot's forces interact, they can cause the particle stream to increase to the speed of light. If the interaction grew to this magnitude it would cause the solar wind/radiation to travel to Earth at the speed of light (if the solar wind is Earth directed). The GOES X-ray monitor is the best way to determine the severity of solar flares where they are separated into classes. The classes of solar flares in increasing strength is A, B, C, M, and X being the most intensive solar flares.

M and X solar flares have the enough energy to expel those inner magnetic fields that originally constructed the sunspots causeing a solar event known as a coronal mass ejection (CME) which has extremely fast and dense solar winds. A CME aimed at Earth would cause an aurora that the world would spectate as the ionosphere of the Earth become electrically charged, just like the Carryington 159 years ago.

NASA has a two satellites: STEREO A and STEREO B which spectate the sun in order to get a 365 degree look at the sun for Earth-directed solar flares.

This is that same solar flare on the helioscope.

When a solar flare is large enough to disturb the Earth's magnetic shield, it is called a geomagnetic storm. If the solar radiation penetrates our magnetosphere, it can make it into the ionosphere which absorbs these highly charged particles inducing geomagnetic events such volcano eruptions, severe hurricanes, and major earthquakes (6.0 M and above). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a simple chart that summarized complex variables in order to determine the severity of a geomagnetic storm hitting Earth. The Kp Index chart shows the scale with "calm" conditions in green ranging from 0-3; a Kp of 4 shows a yellow bar which is a sign of electromagnetic disturbances.

A Kp above 5 will produce severe geomagnetic storm conditions, highlighted in red. A Carryington Event would easily surpass a Kp of 9 which would allow the creation of visible auroras across the globe, even in the daylight.

These auroras are created through charged particles interacting with our magnetic field which induces an electric current in our atmosphere. When this electric current (the aurora) creates a huge magnetic field, it will cause a powerful surge in all electric currents across the globe causing massive blackouts. It most be noted that our increasing dependence on electricity within the last 150 years would produce a much more perilous situation than in 1859: there would be no running water (electric pumps would be blown), no light, airplanes would fall from the sky, fires would erupt from circuit breakers and transformers, and these problems could take years to fix.

The larger the grouping of sunspots and the more direct the impact's direction is towards Earth, the higher chance that the resulting solar flare will significantly impact the Earth. The MegaFlare would cause a giant spike that would exceed the frame of the GOES X-ray monitor and the SDO images would be the next tool to use to see of the flare is Earth-directed. It would be a disservice to space weather to not mention coronal holes.

Umbral magnetic fields have larger,looser magnetic fields that range above the typical umbral fields that we associate with; the areas that lack these fields are shown to be dark areas. This is slightly misleading because there are fields present within those areas but they are being pushed by faster, powerful streams pushing these weaker fields away, so the SDO tools capture this area as if it is lacking in plasmatic/magnetic strength. These fields that are pushed away from the sun/coronal hole are much faster than normal solar streams, so they can induce geomagnetic storms. They register on the ACE solar telemetry graph just like a solar flare except they have faster solar wind speeds. An example is shown below.

One last element to all this knowledge is solar radiation storms. Although the previous topics can affect our current way of life, humans have lived through magnetic pole shifts and solar flares. However, solar radiation storms have been shown to physically damage humans in space, airplanes, or even individuals at high altitudes in a serious situation. The proton detectors aboard the GOES satellite is the best way to detect a solar radiation storm, like the one that occurred during 2003 when transformers in Sweden were blown from a solar flare.

In conclusion, I mention all these tools, resources, and solar knowledge because of the chance (10% according to some estimates) occurrence that this happens in our lifetime.Being able to predict severe weather, earthquakes, and the megaflare are all possible with this technology, in future posts, we will talk about Earthquakes more extensively. However the Megaflare is an event that would cost trillions of dollars worldwide and impact our entire way of life forever. With access of food, water, money, transportation, communication, and satellites being shut down for years, prepping for the worst disaster scenario may help everyone in the long run. Food, water, battery supplies that lasts for 2 years will be a godsend, and a hand crank generator would be invaluable. And this information is just the tip of the iceburg as we will dive into solar cycles, our position and direction in the solar system and universe, and more information on our magnetic pole reversal which all bears very telling information on where we are going in the future. To see several decades of no major solar flares is extraordinary but a deeper look into our weakening magnetosphere as well as the sun's will drive some down the Rabbit Hole.

Sources
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/what-are-sunspots (sunspot pic and information)
https://www.livescience.com/46694-magnetic-field-weakens.html (magnetic field weakening/ European Space Agency)
https://sixalberts.wordpress.com/tag/earth-facing-sunspot-april-2016/ (pic of magnetosphere sunspots)
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index (Kp Index from NOAA)
shttps://www.windows2universe.org/sun/sun_size_distance.html (size of sun)

(suspicious0bserver documentary HIGHLY RECOMMEND/ some pics came from this documentary)
http://spaceweathernews.com/ (best site for daily space weather)

Afterword
This article means a lot to me because this is singlehandedly the one of the most important issues surrounding our existence and future. As we investigate further into the specifics of space weather and the potential future of Earth, remember to never be afraid of the possibility of this occurring. Action, not fear, is necessary and with knowledge, we are more prepared to handle this situation than ever before. Thank you to Ben Davidson, the creator of Suspicious0bservers, who is the heart of this type of information and has been teaching millions of people to become sun watchers to earthquake predictors. I highly recommend his videos on youtube as well as his website www.suspicious0bserers.com. I am no way affiliated with them, this is all merit-based. I am affiliated with Earth Nation though, and we are moving towards a new paradigm of sustainability though the use of cryptocurrencies, Steemit, the creation of eco-villages, a new model business and researching that promotes sharing information and technology. Namaste, and to quote Ben, "Eyes Open, No Fear."