新年未见新气象。美好未来要靠自己创造

新年以来，似乎从新闻上看，并没有给人焕然一新的新气象，反倒很多都是不太好的征兆。

俄乌和巴以之间的战火不但没有熄灭的势势，反而有愈演愈烈的势头。新年伊始，乌克兰就对俄罗斯的城市进行了轰炸，而俄罗斯也为了报复发动了最大规模空袭，什么匕首高超音速导弹、巡航导弹一个劲的往基辅和乌克兰的各大城市招呼；而以色列在加沙的攻势打了两个多月了，基本上已经陷入停滞。从新世纪的几场战争可以看出，对于大规模机械化的国家军队来说、山地和城市巷战，基本上就是噩梦。火力和信息优势完全发挥不出来。特别是当对方的组织还是去中心化和分散化，并且有比较坚决的抵抗意愿的情况下。

当然，最倒霉的还应该是日本，居然是在一场震动级高达七级的地震中迎来了新年。之后又在飞机场上出现了飞机相撞的事故，幸好是在乘客疏散之后，飞机才起火，没有造成大量的人员伤亡。

另一个东亚国家韩国也开年有惊吓，最大在野党的领导人－李在明，在新年游行活动中，突然被身份不明的歹徒用利器刺中脖子，不过经过抢救，索性命是保住了。

今天就说一说这件事情，似乎这两年以来，政治人物这门职业已经变得越来越危险，类似这种被刺杀、暴毙，或者被法律诉讼缠身，丑闻曝光已经越来越常见。如果你喜欢吃政治新闻的瓜，基本上就是吃不完了。比如这种当街刺杀的戏码已经在日本前景下安倍近三身上上演过。没想到这次又发生到了韩国身上。

这些政治人物的离奇死亡，一般都会陷入薛定谔的叠加态，一种是官方的说法，就是纯粹的自然原因，偶然因素，比如心脏病突发之类的。如果是这种遇刺，那刺客多半都是一个不知名的孤狼。因为个人原因或者是精神病而采取的孤立行动。而民间自然就是各种各样的阴谋论，牵扯到各种派系的政治斗争。当然真相如何，也许永远都无法知道了。应该说这两种可能都是存在的，纯粹的偶然因素，或者自然原因也确实在人类的历史发展过程中发挥很大的作用。但权力的游戏当中，阴谋的比重也绝对不小。这一点看看中国的史书就知道了，因为中国历史有朝代循环的特点，而史书的编撰都是后一朝代，后一朝代为前一朝代修史，所以在史书的编写中也不会过于隐晦，因为把前朝末代时期写的越腐败越黑暗，越显得本朝得国之正。

而这位遇刺的韩国在野党领导人，他的政治主张也确实与执政当局有很大的冲突。现在的韩国总统叫尹欣越，他在外交上的主张就是与美国和日本末强联盟关系，对中国保持强硬。而这位李在明则是主张对日本强硬而改善和中国的关系。而他在经济上的政策，这点则是偏向社民主义的，就是要给全韩国人把基本收入还要提供廉价保障房。因为韩国的房价也是高的离谱。

在现任政权的管制之下，韩国的经济也是相当的糟糕。所以李在明在韩国的人气和支持度也是比现任总统要高得多的。他这次遇刺是否有政治阴谋还不确定。因为韩国大选是五年一次，一下次大选还有很长时间，不至于这么早下手。

不过这都不重要。从这个趋势可以看出，世界各国的政坛都处于一种非常分裂的状态。从美国拜登与特朗普的水火不容，再到南美洲，像阿根廷建了国家米莱这样的政治素人，依靠社交网络，在选举政治中崛起。这背后也反映着各国民意与权贵之间的巨大分裂，政治动荡的背后是阶层对立的矛盾越来越尖锐。当权者对越来越受民意支持的民粹领导人已经无法通过传统的政治手段来打压消灭。而越来越多的采取肉体消灭的手段。似乎说明冷战结束之后，相对稳定的三十多年的世界格局将要走向终点，而新格局的诞生的阵痛才刚刚开始。

不过这些“为民请命”的民粹派政治人物的主张也未必都是对的。就这位遇刺的韩国政治人物来说，他的一些主张也未必就是光明和正确的，过多的社会福利，也会浪费社会资源。因为这些福利必须有中产阶层来承担，就会打击他们创造财富和就业机会的积极性，让经济更加陷于停滞。

总之，在这段阵痛期当中，大部分人的日子是不会好过的。当然未来也是有希望的。也许在这段时期中，会有更多的人认清一个道理，幸福需要由自己的努力来创造，不要寄希望于政治人物通过财富的再分配，创造出所谓的平等。所谓“公平”，会把我们带进一个更灰暗的未来。

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Since the beginning of the New Year, it seems that from the news, it has not given people a new look, but many of them are not good signs.

The flames of war between Russia and Ukraine and Palestine and Israel have not only not been extinguished, but have become more and more intense. At the beginning of the new year, Ukraine bombed Russian cities, and Russia also launched the largest air strikes in retaliation. And the Israeli offensive in Gaza has been going on for more than two months and has basically come to a standstill. As can be seen from several wars in the new century, for a large-scale mechanized national army, mountain and urban street fighting, is basically a nightmare. The superiority in firepower and information cannot be brought into play at all. Especially when the other party's organization is still decentralized and decentralized, and there is a relatively resolute willingness to resist.

Of course, the most unfortunate should be Japan, which ushered in the New Year in an earthquake with a magnitude of 7. Later, there was a plane collision at the airport, but fortunately, it was only after the evacuation of the passengers that the plane caught fire, and there were no large number of casualties.

South Korea, another East Asian country, was also frightened at the beginning of the New Year, and Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the largest opposition party, was suddenly stabbed in the neck with a sharp weapon by an unidentified gangster during the New Year's parade, but after rescue, his life was saved.

Talking about this matter today, it seems that in the past two years, the profession of politicians has become more and more dangerous, and it has become more and more common for scandals to be exposed by assassinations, violent deaths, or legal proceedings. If you like to eat melons from political news, you basically can't eat them all. For example, this kind of street assassination drama has been staged on Abe Shinzo under the prospect of Japan. I didn't expect it to happen to South Korea again this time.

The bizarre deaths of these politicians are generally in Schrödinger's superposition, one is the official version, that is, purely natural causes, accidental factors, such as heart attacks. In the case of such an assassination, the assassin would most likely be an unknown lone wolf. Isolated actions for personal reasons or mental illness. And the folk are naturally all kinds of conspiracy theories, involving the political struggles of various factions. Of course, the truth may never be known. It should be said that both of these possibilities exist, and that purely accidental factors, or natural causes, do play a large role in the historical development of mankind. But in Game of Thrones, the proportion of conspiracy is definitely not small. This point can be seen by looking at Chinese history books, because Chinese history has the characteristics of dynastic cycles, and the compilation of history books is the later dynasty, and the latter dynasty repairs the history of the previous dynasty, so it will not be too obscure in the compilation of historical books, because the more corrupt and dark it is written in the last period of the previous dynasty, the more it seems that the current dynasty has won the country.

And the assassinated leader of the South Korean opposition party, his political views are indeed in great conflict with those of the ruling authorities. The current president of South Korea is called Yoon Shin-yue, and his diplomatic position is to form a strong alliance with the United States and Japan and maintain a tough line on China. This Lee Jae-myung, on the other hand, advocated being tough on Japan and improving relations with China. And his economic policy, which is biased towards social democracy, is to provide basic income and low-cost affordable housing for all Koreans. Because housing prices in South Korea are also ridiculously high.

Under the control of the current regime, South Korea's economy is also quite bad. Therefore, Lee Jae-myung's popularity and support in South Korea are also much higher than that of the current president. Whether there was a political conspiracy in his assassination is uncertain. Because South Korea's general election is held every five years, there is still a long way to go before the next general election, so it will not start so early.

But it doesn't matter. From this trend, it can be seen that the political arena of all countries in the world is in a very divided state. From Biden and Trump in the United States, to South America, political amateurs like Argentina built a state, and political amateurs like Milley have relied on social networks to rise in electoral politics. Behind this is also a reflection of the great division between public opinion and the elite in various countries, and behind the political turmoil is the increasingly acute contradiction of class antagonism. Those in power are no longer able to suppress and eliminate populist leaders who are increasingly supported by popular support. Increasingly, physical annihilation is being resorted to. It seems to indicate that after the end of the Cold War, the world pattern of more than 30 years of relative stability is coming to an end, and the pains of the birth of a new pattern have just begun.

But these populist politicians who "call for the people's lives" may not always be right. As far as the assassinated South Korean politician is concerned, some of his ideas are not necessarily bright and correct, and too much social welfare will also waste social resources. Because these benefits must be borne by the middle class, it will discourage them from creating wealth and jobs, and further stagnate the economy.

In short, during this period of pain, most people's lives will not be easy. Of course, there is hope for the future. Perhaps during this period, more people will realize that happiness needs to be created by their own efforts, and do not hope that politicians will create so-called equality through the redistribution of wealth. The so-called "fairness" will lead us into a bleaker future.