XRP 2013-2023 : A psychological and technical theory on Ripple and XRP

To set things clear : I am a XRP holder and I sense that the Ripple technology (RTXP, XRPL, ITL) is bringing the technological advance required to enable the internet 3.0, that is, the Internet of Value. A technological advance drastically and most urgently awaited by a more than ever growing, but compressed, 30 years old exceeded global payments infrastructure.  Please don't assume that my only interest about XRP merely relies on price expectations. I am actually deeply invested into understanding how actually use the Ripple's open-source protocols. Being partially from West Africa, the Ripple tech was pretty much a love at first sight story, considering the complexities that still empeach the potentially very dynamic west african jurisdictions to reach global markets. On the other side, I am also a XRP holder and an amateur swing trader on this unique digital asset. If you fear to get bored reading the following, you can also watch my YT video exposing that theory down there :

These last weeks, I started a work on a well documented 15 years long technical therory. If you follow my twitter account @xrpfrance (now a casualty of the Twitter police for excessive xrp chatting), you may have noticed that I published a few days ago the first progresses of this project on Tradingview.com.  I personally found that even if that theory may not always fit every sensibility or every asset or every movement, especially on short frames, however the Eliott wave theory fits remarquably and in particular some very valuable long-time investment assets, assets that represents the value of some historical game-changing technological, financial and social real-use case innovation. XRP and the Ripple technology as a whole, combines all these requirements.  That's how I started working on my theory. I know xrp trading is not very popular, even among the xrp community, even if I can count several active members such as Crypto Espi or Xrp Charts, Ryan W, and other ones that I don't remember right now. From a technical persepective, it is needless to say that XRP don't generates a 40 billions market cap without a reason.  The asian markets are not only the pilot market for Ripple's products, as recently said Asheesh Birla in a  powerful speech. Asian markets, chinese ones in particular, also represent a significant part of XRP trading volume. And this trend will certainly grow even further, especially in 2019. Moreover, a recent Brokerage Company survey showed how XRP was the most tradable asset between March 2017 and February 2018, in four classes of ages.

Every keen XRP investor sees in Ripple a historical and technological shift, with a magnitude comparable to the personnal computer boom or the Internet 1.0 and 2.0 waves. We are talking here about a substantial revolution in the international payment industry that global elites were awaiting since the eighties, for anyone who knows the egregious The Economist issue of January 1988. So, if I also started going really deep into XRP charts and if I may swing some XRP on a special account, it's really because I do think that this will be a quite valuable activity in the next years, as the Ripple technology will enable the Internet of value through the XRP ledger and all of its gates, especially Interledger. And if you are already working hard to understand how to use the open-source protocols of the XRP Ledger or the Interledger, you may hold a very valuable experience asset for your future career. In the same fashion, if XRP is going to be the worldwide nostro-vostro account and Interledger the New World Banking Ledger, if XRP is going to be the bridge-asset resolving a 22 trillions $ nostro-vostro account problem (and I don't tell about the 164 tr. $ yearly volume of B2B cross-border payments), then I find pretty reasonnable to specialize myself in the observation of the price action of this asset.  I think we now can identify what would be the three first major waves on a 5 year XRP movement, from 2013 to 2018. And it's like we are standing a few weeks or a few monthes away from the beginning of the 3rd major wave of this movement.  This fun rookie experiment turned out to be some serious business.

The First Major wave premium buy prices timeframe essentially went from June 2016 to February 2017. In this timeframe, you could have bought a XRP between 2 and 4 fractions of a cent. Basically, if you invested only 5000$ in zerp's in February of last year, you could have bought hundreds and thousands of them and your fortune would be estimated in a few millions of dollars right now (or a least at January peaks), just out of an initial investment of a couple grounds made a few monthes or a couple years before. On my theory, I especially identify three premium entry prices within that first wave. Thus, I include in this first major XRP wave, all people who bought XRP for less than 25 cents, before the bull run of last december.  The 3,36$ per XRP was the top premium exit price of that first major wave. The people who invested during that first wave timeframe would be called "insiders", pros, savvy investors, the ones who knew, the ones who saw and understood before everybody. And also, of course, as always, a bunch of lucky guys who just happen to enjoy the ride without even realizing the value of their invesment. Between 2013 and early 2017, only a few people understood the historical innovation of the Ripple technology and the incredible value of the XRP token. These were the early days of the xrp community. We are now shifting into another era in the blockchain space and the Ripple tech is already 5 or 10 years ahead in this game, in terms of concept and technology.

We are now entering the 3rdmajor WAVE of this historical movement. At the very beginning of that 3rd wave, you will usually see a new generation of early savvy investors, especially because the top of the first major wave of such a movement is generally connected with some unsual, yet justified, huge speculation. Hence, XRP price was propelled from 0.004 cents up to 3$ within a 10 monthes timeframe, mostly on speculation, as the rest of the market, but, as I saw in my study, XRP specific outperformances are not mere coincidences or P&D scenarios. Now,one have to understand that in a very near future, a future which is actually already a present, XRP price action will be propelled by its unique real use case function. The more XRP will get liquid and get implemented in dozens of major payment channels, the more speculation will grow, thus we can expect price levels that will astonish the fintech and the blockchain space many more times.

In that 3rd major wave, we will still see some of the first wave savvy investors and key traders. The most keen ones among them already know that XRP will go way higher. They certainly didn't sell more than 50% of their XRP in January, and they still made millions of benefits out of their 5000-20000$ initial investment. So they will still benefit from the rest of the major movement through the 5 or 10 next years. The 3rd wave savvy investors and key traders can be considered as inbetweeners. Basically, we are now in what I call the RUBICON, which is just a fancy name of my invention (and also a reference than only hardcore xrp community member would understand) to describe the 1$-1,30$ next barrier. We are crossing this RUBICON right now and we don't really know when all the army will reach to the bank. The army has not entirely crossed the river yet. But there is no much time left and, as you may now, the most specific aspect of the Ripple ecosystem is to move fast. Like really, really fast. I basically drafted two scenarios for the rest of the year. We may not see the end of the ongoing correction and consolidation until mid-June and even until early September. Thus, the beginning of the third major wave will occur. Once we will cross the RUBICON, which is basically this tiny 1 dollar river, one thing is sure : XRP will unlily pass under the dollar ever again.

Lately, I was listening to the brilliant speech that David Schwarz gave at the last Deconomy forum in April of this year. A lot of people paid attention to Asheesh Birla's last video at Canada Payment Conference, which is of course also a massively important speech to hear about. Apart from the Amazon speculation, what Asheed said about the fact that 5 years in blockchain mad him feel like a century in reality, I found that statement very accurate, especially from our technical perspective. For instance, if you bought 1000 $GOOGL shares at 50 dollars each in september 2004, you would be a millionaire by now, 15 years later, as Google's price is above 1000$ a share today. But the innovative impact that Google brought on a technological perspective, becoming a global standard within an open market, grew more and more in value on a 15 years long timeframe in the share's price action. We can expect that this timeframe could be reduced from 10 to 5 years for the Ripple technology to really become the standard of the Internet of Value, although within a diverse and open market, which will greatly benefit from the XRPL and Interledger's protocols. The designers of the Ripple technology and the XRP/ITL infrastructure were early bitcoin-space actors, cryptographists, programmers and managers. Basilcally, these people, back in 2011, already knew about all Bitcoin's, POW/POS's frailties. That's why they created the Ripple Network (incl. ITL and Codius) around the XRP, which is since then, the ultimate, most-efficient, fastest, transparent, costless, ecofriendly and cutting-edge digital asset solving a multi-trillions $ market growing compression problem.

So, i don't know if you guys heard the very last sentence of David Schwarz's speech at Deconomy, just take a look here from 23:55 to the end.

"Theres going to be this third phase when we found things we couldn't even imagine doing, like whos the Twitter of blockchain ? Who is going to be the Google of blockchain ?"

When I heard this, I first asked myself how I didn't heard this before, since I was listenning this speech like for the fourth time in a row. Then I asked myself, "wow, did David Schwarz just mentionned a 3rd wave right here" ? I was really amazed how the growing adoption of the Ripple ecosystem and tehcnology was fitting the movements of my EW theory. All indicators, both technical and fundamentals, classify Ripple and XRP in the class of historical ,technological and social gamechanging advances.

As a young investor, XRP is most certainly the first wise financial investment I made in my young life. That third wave is usually a pretty long one, that could bring us 65$ to 75$ a XRP in a couple of years. First big stop will be 10$ to 14$ per XRP in a few monthes. When XRP will reach this price, then, we will be at the premices of wider adoption and we will see unexpected uses cases for xrp emerge.

Remember that this is not only a technical chart, but also a fundamental chart, so you can find major events of the history of Ripple from the very begining with Ryan Fugger, RipplePay, J. McCaleb, how we got from OpenCoin to Ripple Labs to Ripple, when the first investors and partners came in and so on. This is a fun collaborative project just starting right now. Feel free to take a part in it or to comment to give me your stance on your XRP mid or long-term strategy. I will certainly update my theory on a monthly basis throughout the year. In a next article, I will talk about the potential of the Ripple technology in such high-friction areas as West Africa's juridictions (XOF area, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Senegal, etc.).

Good day to you.