I'm quoting some great philosopher here:

Garbage in, garbage out.

There are so many unknowables. And so many interested parties feeding into the equation data that will predict a favorable outcome for them.
The only principle I believe in is the uncertainty principle (and I don't even know what that is, but it sounds right).
Nobody I know (ordinary people) really trusts money, financial institutions, politicians or government. We all work hard and try to hedge our bets. Then we cross our fingers.

Also, we like to own gold, but mostly can't afford it.