World War 3 at our doorstep!
Does Russian invasion on Ukraine means that WW3 is at our doorstep? Let's just imagine a scenario where there is a possibility. After all, if you looked at the world 10 years before WWI it would have been pretty difficult to imagine a WW2 was about to erupt. Everybody on both sides thought the war would be over in a matter of weeks (with their respective side winning obviously.) So let’s say Russia’s economy continues to stagnate, and as a result Putin’s rhetoric becomes more and more antagonistic towards the West which finds also finds itself in an increasingly isolated from the rest of the world and riven with internal strife. Europe is basically in shambles due to a number of factors including the dissolution of the Euro, a result of an exit by Greece & Spain, the economic collapse of Germany, the Exit of Britain from the Eurozone under the Torries, and the dissolution of the Shengen Agreement due to a number of extremely brutal terror attacks throughout the regions.
As this happens, Russia, America and Europe get further mired in conflicts in Ukraine and Syria. America is further distracted by a number of major crises both at home and abroad. The Kurds declare independence in Iraq plunging that country into a 3 way civil war. Two of America’s main regional allies also fail to come to her aid as an increasingly emboldened Iran spreads chaos throughout the region in an attempt to increase its own standing. Saudi Arabia finds itself in a Syria like situation due to permanently depressed oil prices undermining the royal family’s ability to buy the loyalty of either the population or the religious Mullah’s. The House of Saud finds itself increasingly embattled a protestors both moderate and fanatic take and clash over large swathes of the country. America’s other major Muslim ally in the region Turkey also finds itself both at odds with America and in a quasi-civil war as it attempts to prevent a unified Kurdistan from forming from the remnants of Iraq, Syria, and its own Kurdish population. Iran vocally supports the Kurds, while America, while technically remaining neutral, ends up providing intelligence and some military support due to its close relations with the Kurds in Iraq and Syria. Israel, with problems of its own in Palestine, remains neutral as the world around it burns.
Simultaneously, America’s relationship with China begins to deteriorate for a number of reasons. First, as its economy shrinks even further and faster than anyone expected, it has become increasingly oppressive towards its own population and increasingly aggressive abroad. On the American side, US’s has further inflamed the situation by slapping a number of tariffs on Chinese imports and jingoistic rhetoric from his administration.
Here, the stage has been set for worldwide conflagration. One last match needs to be lit. Due to so many crises erupting around the world, North Korea no longer gets the food aid it needs to survive. Kim Jung Un and his regime look for more and more hardline ways to get world attention in order to obtain the food it needs to survive. Suddenly, a nuke goes off just outside of Seoul killing millions. South Korea invades. China, unwilling and unable to allow America/South Korea on its boarder, invades North Korea. Taiwan and Hong Kong declare independence and ally together. In order to fulfill its treaty obligations towards South Korea and Taiwan, America declares war on China.
Putin, understanding the weakness of the West, fully annexes all of Eastern & Southern Ukraine, parts of Georgia, and begins to involve itself in other ex-soviet Republics with large Russian populations such as Latvia and Lithuania, who happen to be NATO members. Europe, having basically reduced their military budgets to nothing, are unable to respond, and the US, tied up in Asia and the Middle East is reluctant to open up yet another front….
Here, an interesting question arises... who will be the axis and allies if a world war 3 erupts over the Ukraine issue. Here are two assumptions I would like to make in answering this question:
One, nobody wants WW3. That’s it, it’s never going to happen, end of the story. Okay, jokes aside, we will assume the worst possible solutions passed out by the most aggressive and insane leaders of these countries.
Two, WW3 must start from one country declaring way against another. It can’t be one country declaring war against…. the rest of the world; that would make no sense.
Right, so here are the most likely candidates:
USA and Russia.
Background: The classic match-up. We all know much about this. Both have massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons and both have been watching their back for each other for a long time. Strangely enough, both are wealth-driven capitalistic countries with democratic governments (though Putin simply abuses the constitution to stay in power), and their major ideals about politics and human rights are similar. The only thing keeping them at each other’s throat is the desire to prove they are the Earth’s ultimate power. Currently, both are involved in many conflicts in the Middle East as well as the Ukraine Crisis.
Who will be involved: A war between Russia and the USA alone is massive enough. Eastern European countries, fearing annexation by Russia, would side with the USA, as would NATO.
Why they would go at each other: If Russia attempts to invade Ukraine and fully annex it, the USA might have to intervene. However, this should not be enough to trigger a full-scale WW3. My prediction would be like this, Russia claims Ukraine and the USA does nothing about it; then Russia invades Poland like it is 1949, the US and NATO responds. And war ensues.
First of all. Nearly all of Europe is involved because they simply want to crush any sort of Russian aggression which would be incited because of WW3. Putin would take this chance to try seize some sort of land in Europe to gain a bigger influence in the continent and therefore lead to Europe having to fight back. Switzerland being on the side of the Allies but with the main aggressor being on the other side of Europe, I thought it might involve itself a little just for the survival of Europe.
The Middle East is a tricky place. Even if the majority of them dislike the United States, they would fight alongside them to prevent nations like Iran from growing and competing with Saudi Arabia in their Shia-Sunni struggle. I would never bet against Iran and Saudi Arabia fighting together. Turkey, as a NATO member, would join NATO in combating any Iranian or Russian aggression in the Middle East. They would be guarding the southern gateway to Europe via the Balkans, therefore it might be a very busy location if the Russians planned an invasion from the south. If the opponent had been the United States, Iran would have easily joined the Axis. They see it as a chance to cripple the Titan known as America with Syria, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon following its path to try get America out of The Middle East.
Central Asia is where I think most things will happen just because of the huge armies that would face each other.
The main 2 combatants would be China and India which will lead to ALOT of deaths but complicated fights because of the terrain surrounding their borders.
Nepal being a small nation would be expected to be neutral but because of their involvement in the British army and close relations to India would be forced to fight.
Pakistan, being a very pro-China nation, will join the side of China to fend off India and maybe once and for all settle the argument for who owns the Kashmir province. If they win.
Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan would be fighting on China’s coastal and land borders to provide some sort of offensive near the capital. This obviously results in the fight to gain control of the South China Sea which then brings in Malaysia which I put in the Allied side because i would think they want control or international access to the SCS (South China Sea). Myanmar is also on the allied side but with Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam being on the side of China and Russia.
Africa just involves a few Arabic nations with Nigeria, Ethiopia and South Africa joining the Allies because of their close ties with the UK.
The Americas is a dominant continent for the Allies with only 3 nations fighting against them: Cuba, Venezuela and Haiti.
To be completely honest, I don’t know what I was doing when I picked them. Cuba only because of their bad history with America and Venezuela because they’d take any chance to get rich and they see this one as a chance.
OUTCOME————————————————————————————————-
In my opinion, I think the 2 alliances are quite equal with most continents being dominated by 1 side only a little bit more than the other.
The Americas are completely secured unless Russia or China send forces to Cuba and Venezuela to form some sort of Guerrilla to fend off any invasion forces to Cuba. Cuba would act as a useful port for any local operation but would most likely be cut off from any sort of trade in a naval blockade and forced into surrender. (If they did it the non aggressive way)
Europe is could be a bit of a hassle. Russia has a powerful and expendable army but its how long they can hold their grounds for. I think Russia will have a very strong start with its invasion of the Baltics and Ukraine but maybe slow down around Germany where the Allied armies would get their shit together and finally the counter-offensive for the Allies would begin.
The Middle East is a an absolute “HORROR” Where I could probably see 20+ anti-government or terrorist groups popping out of the dirt which would lead to even more complications. Its not a stable place but could land in the hands of Russia and Iran depending on how the Turks hold against the Russians in the Caucasus.
SE Asia is mainly a fight with Pakistan, China vs Japan, India, South Korea, America, Malaysia and the Philippines. But both sides have ALOT of manpower with China being the absolute Titan with its 600 million being fit for service. It will pretty much be the “Eastern Front” of WW3 with both sides losing hundreds of thousands trying to gain inches of land.
DECISIVE BATTLES———————————————————————————
This is where I “think” most of the fights will occur. In my opinion being decisive battles which could turn the direction of the war:
- The North Sea - The North sea is where I think Russia will try to gain control of to gain area closer to the economic cities of the UK, France and Germany. If the Russians won in this area it would open up an area viable for strategical bombing runs. If they lost it could cause heavy damage to their navy and/or airforce.
The Baltics and Finland - Lets hope Finland still has a bit of that “Winter War” rage inside them. These 2 areas will most likely be the first to see contact of any sorts if not then the Middle East. The Baltic Sea is also home to the Russian Navy and the city of St. Petersburg. Winning for the Russians means another chance at the North Sea and coastal access to Poland which could be useful.
The Black Sea and Ukraine - The black sea at the moment is dominated by the Russians but with the help needed could be turned around. Its where their ships go through the straits of Istanbul to international waters. The only problem for Russia being they cant go through there if the enemy controls it! If turkey lost naval control of the strait through Istanbul it would allow Russia to send ships into the Med.Sea allowing for bigger operations.
The Middle East - This ones quite obvious. The Middle East is one of the main routes from Asia to Europe and if the Axis were to win it would allow for an open offensive on European mainland. If Allies were to win it would allow for more reinforcements to be pushed into Asia and help with Indian efforts.
South China Sea - This one is in my opinion the most important and probably a big turning point for which ever side wins. Its where most of the worlds trade goes through and if any side were to own that area it would give them control of the worlds trade. In the hand of the Axis it would prove deadly as it would also allow naval dominance to carry operations throughout SE Asia. But with Allied Dominance it would prove helpful in the offensive of Thailand and Vietnam to gain a southern front to China.
VERDICT—————————————————————————————————
In our day and age WW3 is entirely possible. It most likely wont look like my interpretation does but it will involve the majority of the nations if it happened. - Yes the world powers are not close to starting a war over something but the countries that they puppet and send forces to will almost definitely lead them into war. If the Syrian Civil War doesn’t end soon for whatever reason, It will likely drive powers to fight each other. Regional powers like Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia send troops there to fight alongside allies or in Iran’s case: build military bases in Syria to gain closer presence to Israel which has only led to the 2 Countries exchanging missiles. Had any military personnel or civilians been killed in these strikes on the israeli side, it would of led to even more and if escalated further could lead to border conflicts. The powers of the world are playing dangerous games by getting involved with the affairs of others. At this point all it takes is a few soldiers dead at the least and something could happen.
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