I was using the current market price (at the time of writing) assuming the feed would catch up.

Currently I see:

Market price: 0.424
Peg target 0.88

I'm not sure how you get mid 90s here. Let's work out the numbers.

Steem supply: 283700936.325
Market cap: $120289197.0018
10% of market cap: $12028919.70018
SBD supply: 13666862.145
$ value per SBD: 0.88
SBD market price: 0.85

So yes there is a small discount, although a few hours ago there wasn't, so there is no sustained imbalance here.

There is some SBD which is in the process of conversion and not subtracted from the supply but the conversion target price formula does not account for that afaik, until the conversion actually completes and the supply number is adjusted.